Market Snapshot | April 19, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are higher amid corrective buying in step with soybeans and SRW wheat.
• USDA reported daily corn sales of 216,500 MT to Mexico, with 23,000 MT for 2023-24 and 193,500 MT for 2024-25.
• EPA today will announce plans to temporarily expand E15 sales beyond June 1 for the 2024 summer driving season, according to Reuters. EPA has taken similar actions the past two years, granting a 20-day emergency waiver and then repeatedly extending it through Sept. 15.
• After rains last week, most safrinha corn areas in Brazil will start to trend drier. Excessive rainfall is expected in far southern Brazil and some areas of northern Argentina.
• Overnight, South Korea purchased 137,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa.
• May corn continues to face resistance at the 20-day moving average of $4.33, while support is at $4.28 and $4.25.

Soybean futures are mostly 12 to 13 cents higher, while soymeal is $4.00-plus higher. May soyoil is modestly firmer.

• Soybeans are rebounding from losses earlier this week.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 121,500 MT to unknown destinations, with 13,500 MT for 2023-24 and 108,000 MT for 2024-25.
• A wetter weather pattern will occur the second half of next week across the Corn Belt, stalling fieldwork in much of the region. World Weather Inc. notes there is some potential for bands of heavy rain follow-up rain expected and possible fieldwork delays deeper into May.
• May soybeans bounced before testing support at $11.28 1/2. Initial resistance is at the 5-day moving average near $11.47 and then at $11.50. 

SRW wheat futures are mostly 7 to 8 cents higher, while HRW futures are about a penny higher. HRS futures are around 4 to 6 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are attempting to maintain overnight strength, but are trading well off of overnight highs. A weaker U.S. dollar is lending support.
• SovEcon cut its 2024 Russian wheat crop forecast by 1 MMT to 93 MMT amid deteriorating conditions in the South region.
• India’s wheat stocks held in government warehouses dropped to their lowest level in 16 years after two straight years of reduced production prompted New Delhi to sell record volumes to tame inflation. Wheat reserves in state warehouses totaled 7.5 MMT at the beginning of April, down from 8.35 MMT last year, according to data compiled by the state-run Food Corporation of India.
• France’s ag ministry rated 64% of the wheat crop as good or excellent as of April 15, unchanged from the previous week but the lowest for this date since 2020.
• May SRW wheat is facing a band of resistance from $5.52 1/2 to $5.58 1/2, where the 20-, 40- and 50-day moving averages stand. Initial support lies at the previous session low of $5.34 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are modestly weaker at midsession.

• Nearby live cattle are trading narrowly in consolidative trade ahead of USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report.
• The report this afternoon is expected to show a seventh straight month of year-over-year increases in feedlot numbers, with the average estimate up 2.1%. After a sharp increase in the number of calves moved into feedlots during February, placements last month are expected to have declined 7.0% from last year. Marketings are expected to be down 11.9%.
• Choice wholesale beef prices dropped $1.01 to $295.80 on Thursday, while Select fell $1.61 to $289.27. Falling wholesale beef prices have kept packer margins deep in the red and made them unwilling to raise cash cattle bids.
• June live cattle are consolidating in sideways trade with resistance at $176.275 and initial support at $176.10.

Lean hog futures are moderately to sharply higher at midsession.

• Hog futures are higher following four days of consolidative trade.
• The CME lean hog index is up another dime to $91.46 as of April 17.
• The pork cutout value firmed 41 cents Thursday to $99.96. While it has spent three straight days below $100.00, there appears to be solid retailer demand just under that level as movement increased to 303.7 loads yesterday.
• June lean hogs pushed above multiple layers of resistance. Next resistance is at $104.825. Initial support starts at $101.64.