Market Snapshot | January 3, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are extending losses for the fifth consecutive session, forging a new contract low amid SRW weakness and continued gains in the U.S. dollar.
• A couple more days of little rain and mostly favorable conditions for fieldwork will occur in Argentina before regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms occur Friday through Jan. 16, with enough rain expected to maintain or improve soil moisture in nearly all the country, states World Weather Inc.
• South-central Brazil will receive lighter-than-normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Mostly favorable conditions are expected in southern Brazil.
• March corn has forged a fresh contract low, with initial support at $4.60 1/2, while initial resistance is at $4.68 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 6 cents higher, while March soymeal is around $1.00 lower. March soyoil is around 40 points higher.

• Soybean futures are seeing mild corrective buying afterextending Tuesday’s strong losses earlier.
• Recent rain in the north half of Brazil and that which is forthcoming will prove beneficial in raising soil moisture and ensuring a more favorable crop development environment through the first half of the month, notes World Weather.
• India’s palm oil imports rose in December to their highest in four months as purchases of refined palmolein surged due to competitive prices. Imports during December rose 1.9% from the previous month to 886,000 MT, while refined pal imports surged 47% to 252,000 MT.
• March soybeans are facing initial support at $12.63 1/2, while initial resistance stands at $12.77 1/4. A move outside of the current range will find additional support and resistance at $12.53 1/2 and $12.87, respectively.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents lower, while HRW is around 10 to 12 cents lower. HRS wheat is mostly 4 to 7 cents lower.

• The wheat complex is being led lower by HRW wheat amid improved state crop condition ratings, while persisting U.S. dollar strength continues to cast a further shadow over futures.
• State-level winter wheat crop condition ratings released Tuesday indicated a general improvement in the HRW crop over the past month, led by top producer Kansas. When plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 10.5 points from the end of November to 333.8.
• India’s wheat inventories are likely to remain above the buffer norm on April 1 despite the ongoing sale of grain from state reserves, a senior government official said. The country’s wheat stocks at state warehouses have dropped to 16.47 MMT as of Jan 1, according to Ashok Kumar Meena, chairman of the Food Corporation of India. That’s the lowest level since 2017.
• March SRW futures are testing support at $6.00 for the first time since Dec. 1, though support at $5.98 is limiting selling. The 40-day moving average of $6.06 is serving as initial resistance.

Live cattle are lower while feeders are mostly weaker at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures are being limited by technical resistance at the 40-day moving average, as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
• Cash trade remains slow to develop this week, though there are musings of higher prices for the third straight week.
• Wholesale beef prices plummeted Tuesday, with Choice dropping $5.37 to $284.34, while Select fell $1.47 to $258.86, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $25.48. Movement increased to 139 loads.
• February live cattle are hovering below the 40-day moving average of $171.56, while initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $169.68.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

• February lean hogs are marking modest corrective gains following Tuesday’s strong losses, despite continued weakness in the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 30 cents to $65.05 as of Dec. 29, marking a new low in the seasonal decline.
• The pork cutout value rose 34 cents Tuesday to $85.10, led by an $8 gain in bellies. Movement totaled 305.7 loads.
• February lean hogs are trading narrowly within Tuesday’s lower range as the previous session’s low of $64.675 serves up initial support. Initial resistance stands at $66.32.