Evening Report | April 24, 2023

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Winter wheat conditions decline... As of Sunday, USDA rated 26% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one point from the previous week but in line with expectations from a Reuters poll. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased two points to 41%.

USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 18% headed, four points ahead of the five-year average. The portion of crop headed stood at 53% in Texas (52% on average) and 33% in Oklahoma (24% average). Only 3% of the crop was headed in Kansas (1% average), while none was headed in Nebraska or Colorado – areas where Sunday morning’s frost/freeze hit the hardest.

Corn planting ahead of average, in line with expectations... USDA reported the U.S. corn crop was 14% planted as of Sunday, three percentage points ahead of the five-year average and in line with traders’ expectations. Across the Corn Belt, planting stood at 18% in Illinois (11% on average), 9% in Indiana (6% average), 10% in Iowa (10% average), 24% in Kansas (19% average), 1% in Michigan (1% average), 1% in Minnesota (8% average), 58% in Missouri (18% average), 10% in Nebraska (7% average), 0% in North Dakota (1% average), 6% in Ohio (2% average), 0% in South Dakota (2% average) and 1% in Wisconsin (3% average).

Corn was 3% emerged, one point ahead of average for the date.

Soybean planting more than double the normal pace... Soybean planting advanced to 9% done as of Sunday, five percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Traders expected USDA to report soybean planted was 8% completed. As with corn, planting was running ahead of the normal pace in all but the northern states.

Cotton planting just ahead of average... USDA reported 12% of the cotton crop was seeded, one point ahead of the five-year average. Texas stood at 18% planted versus the 16% five-year average. Georgia’s crop was 4% seeded, two points behind average.

Spring wheat planting well behind normal... Spring wheat planting advanced only two percentage points over the past week to 5% done. That was well behind the 12% five-year average and less than the 7% pace traders expected. All of the six spring wheat states were running behind the average pace. Top producer North Dakota had seeded only 1% of the crop versus the 6% five-year average.

Spring wheat emergence stood at 1%, two percentage points behind average for the date.

World Weather: ‘Significant’ rain expected in HRW wheat areas, cold temps too... Through May 2, World Weather Inc. says “roughly 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain is expected from eastern Colorado through central and southern Kansas, Oklahoma and the northeast half of the Texas Panhandle with 0.20 to 0.40 inch occurring in parts of West Texas.” A few are will likely receive 2.00 inches or more. World Weather says, “The last time this region saw consistent rounds of thunderstorms bringing significant moisture was in late July and early August of 2022.”

Cold temps are also expected across the region, with overnight lows expected to drop into the upper 20s over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Temps won’t be quite as cold in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Another shot of cold air is expected Saturday morning.

Sub-freezing temps this past weekend likely caused limited damage to the HRW crop, though the full extent won’t be known until the crop reaches the reproductive stage.

World Weather says, “The upcoming bouts of cold morning temperatures are not expected to cause further widespread damage to winter wheat, though some leaf burning is possible in some areas. The incoming rounds of showers and thunderstorms, followed by milder temperatures in the coming weeks, may allow an opportunity for some minorly damaged winter wheat to recover.”

Argentine transporters start protests... A union of Argentine transporters started an indefinite strike on Monday, threatening to hit shipments at the main Rosario ag export hub by forcing exporters to rely on dwindling grain reserves at the terminals. In the province of Sante Fe, where the Rosario export terminals are located, transporters prevented the passage of trucks carrying grains. The protestors were reportedly letting trucks carrying other goods, including livestock, through the protest lines, choosing to focus on grains.

A source from the chamber of grain exporters and processors (CIARA-CEC) said that shipments from ports remained steady on Monday, although it warned grain and by-product reserves are low.

UN chief, Lavrov to discuss ‘lots of details’ on grain exports... United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday urged the continued implementation of the Black Sea grain export deal. He also pledged assistance to help facilitate Russia’s exports of grain and fertilizer. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Guterres clearly demonstrated “cooperation is essential to creating greater security and prosperity for all.”

A spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry said there are “lots of details” to be discussed, noting the Black Sea grain deal “includes two parts and both parts should be realized and fully equal.”

Russia has threatened to not extend the Black Sea grain deal beyond its May 18 deadline if Western sanctions that Moscow contends impede its grain and fertilizer exports aren’t lifted.

G7 farm ministers urge expansion of Ukraine grain exports... Group of Seven (G7) agriculture ministers on Sunday in a communique noted that Russia’s Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine has had a devastating impact on global food security and called for expansion of Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea Grain corridor that is exempt from attack. They added they were ready to aid the reconstruction of Ukrainian agricultural facilities damaged by the war.

“We are deeply concerned about the devastating impact the war is having on food security globally, not least through price spikes in grains, fuel and fertilizers, which is disproportionately impacting the most vulnerable,” the communique read, noting the war was estimated to increase world hunger by 10.7 million people. “In this context, we strongly support the extension, full implementation and expansion of BSGI (Black Sea Grain Initiative).”

More than 25 MMT of grain and food products have been shipped from Ukraine under the Black Sea initiative. Half of the exports were corn and 27% were wheat.