Market Snapshot | March 8, 2023

Corn futures are choppy ahead of USDA’s supply and demand update at 11 a.m. CT.
Traders are expecting 2022-23 U.S. ending stocks at 1.308 billion bu. in USDA’s Supply and Demand Report, which would be a 41-million-bu. increase from February.
Argentina authorized exporters to postpone corn export licenses for shipment between March 1 and July 31 due to drought impacts on production. That was an extension from a previous decree, which now grants them a 360-day postponement.
Western and far southern Argentina will receive periodic rainfall which will benefit late season crops that have survived the drought, according to World Weather Inc.
Ethanol production for week ending March 3 rose 7,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.010 million bpd. That was down 1.8% from the same week last year. Stocks rose 545,000 barrels to 25.32 million barrels.
May corn futures dropped as low as $6.32 1/4, holding just above initial support of $6.32, before modestly bouncing. Initial resistance is at $6.34 1/2.

Soybeans are 4 to 8 cents higher, while May meal futures are around $2.50 higher. May soyoil is up around 70 points.

Soybeans are firmer, while soyoil notches notable gains on corrective buying after experiencing three straight sessions of profit-taking.
Traders are expecting 2022-23 soybean ending stocks at 220 million bu., which would reflect a 5-million-bu. decrease from February. A major focus will be how much USDA cuts its Argentine soybean crop estimate.
Argentina’s soybean production could dip as low as 25 MMT, states the head of Oil World, as the crop continues to struggle with weather induced stress.
World Weather notes center-south and center-west Brazil are expected to be wetter biased over the next 10 days, which may slow late-season soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting.
Malaysian palm oil futures turned lower overnight, extending losses for the third consecutive session.
May soybeans have reversed off the overnight low, with initial support remaining at Monday’s low of $15.10 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $15.26 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are 6 to 7 cents lower, while HRW is 3 to 6 cents lower. Spring wheat is mostly 5 to 7 cents lower.

Winter wheat futures are edging lower for the fifth straight session as traders continue to expect the Black Sea grain deal to be extended.
Traders are anticipating a 5-million-bu. increase in 2022-23 wheat ending stocks to 573 million bu. in USDA’s Supply and Demand Report.
Russia’s demands for the extension of a deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea have not yet been met, a Turkish diplomatic source said on Wednesday, adding that Ankara is “working very hard” to ensure a deal continues.
Ukrainian farmers are likely to sow a smaller area this spring than they did following Russia’s invasion, due to mine-ridden fields and a shortage of cash.
Limited precip is still advertised for the U.S. west-central and southwestern Plains, states World Weather, though wheat in the Midwest is rated well and snow falling in the Northern Plains is favorable ahead of spring wheat planting.
May SRW wheat futures have dropped as low as $6.85 3/4, just above initial support of $6.83. Initial resistance stands at $7.04 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are posting losses at midsession.

Live cattle are lower as traders wait for the cash cattle trade to develop.
Cash sources expect cash cattle to strengthen. While packers are hoping to get feedlots to move cattle at steady/weaker prices, feedlots are positioned to hold out for higher prices again this week.
The CME feeder cattle index has turned higher recently, rising to the highest level since fall 2015 following the recent pullback in corn prices, which has elevated demand amid tight supplies.
Choice boxed beef fell $2.27 to $287.93 on Tuesday, while Select rose $1.02 to $277.49, taking the Choice/Select spread to $10.44.
April live cattle have dipped below the 10- and 20-day moving averages, with additional support lying at $164.375. Initial resistance is at Monday’s high of $166.675.

Hog futures are marking solid gains in the nearby contracts, with lighter gains in deferred months.

Lean hog futures are higher as strong underlying cash fundamentals increase buying efforts.
The CME lean hog index is up 18 cents to $79.09 as of Feb. 6, extending its steady price increase over the past month and a half. Following Tuesday’s strong finish, April lean hog futures increased their premium to today’s cash quote to $5.71.
The pork cutout value fell 31 cents Tuesday to $87.02, with a drop in all cuts except hams and picnics. The slight drop prompted increased movement as packers moved 312 loads on the day, indicating solid retailer buying under the market.
April lean hogs have risen above the 10- and 20-day moving averages at $84.93 and $85.34, respectively. Initial resistance stands at the 40-day moving average near $85.72, while initial support lies near $83.71.

Tags