Market Snapshot | August 24, 2022

Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents lower at midsession after erasing early gains.

Corn futures are under mild profit-taking pressure after climbing to two months highs overnight on concern over dialed-back crop production prospects
Most of the U.S. Midwest and a large part of the eastern and southern Great Plains will receive rain in this coming week, with the greatest amounts likely from Aug 28-31, World Weather Inc. said. “The wetter weather in the Midwest will be great for ensuring a good finish to summer crop development,” the forecaster said.
Results from day 2 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Tuesday suggested Nebraska and Indiana yields will fall short of last year’s levels. Scouts determined an average corn yield of 158.53 bu. per acre in Nebraska, down from both last year’s 182.35 bu. per acre estimate and the three-year Tour average of 176.68 bu. per acre.
In Indiana, samples yielded an average corn yield of 177.85 bu. per acre, down from both 193.48 bu. per acre in 2021 and the three-year Tour average of 178.26 bu. per acre. Scouts today are sampling fields in western and easter Iowa, southern Minnesota and Illinois.
Ukraine's 2022 grain harvest could shrink to 52.5 to 55.4 MMT from a record 86 MMT due to the Russian invasion cutting harvested area, Reuters reported, citing analyst APK-Inform said.
December futures fell as low as $6.50 1/4 near midmorning, after rallying earlier to $6.71, the contract’s highest intraday price since $6.67 3/4 on June 28.

Soy complex futures are mixed, with soybeans 1 to 6 cents lower and soyoil around 60 points lower, while soymeal is up 50 cents to over $1.

Soybean also erased an overnight rally as profit-taking emerged following the market’s climb to two-month highs Tuesday. Prices gained initial amid concern dryness will curb yield potential in parts of the Midwest. A downturn in crude oil may have encouraged sellers.
Results from day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour Tuesday suggested soybean yields in Nebraska and Indiana may trail last year’s. In Nebraska, soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,063.72, down from both 1,226.43 in 2021 and the three-year Tour average of 1,245.06.
In Indiana, soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square totaled 1,165.97, down from 1,239.72 in 2021 but above the three-year average of 1,148,26.
USDA early today reported a sale of 517,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year. A day ago, USDA announced a soybean sale of 110,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2022-23.
November soybeans fell as low as $14.50 this morning soon after rallying to $14.84 1/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since $14.89 on July 29.

Wheat futures are mostly lower after fading from overnight advances.

Wheat futures retreated from overnight gains in sympathy with a pullback in corn and soybeans, though December HRW wheat is still holding slight gains after rising near a four-week high.
Accelerating harvest pressure is weighing on spring wheat futures.
USDA’s weekly export sales report tomorrow is expected to show net U.S. wheat sales at 200,000 to 500,000 MT for the week ended Aug. 18, based on a Reuters survey of analysts.
December SRW wheat overnight reached $8.17 3/4, but faded after failing to take out Tuesday’s high at $8.19 3/4, which coincides with the 40-day moving average.

Live cattle futures extended the past week’s slide amid ideas the cash market’s recent gains will subside as the market heads toward a period of typical seasonal beef demand weakness.
Choice beef cutout values fell $1.72 Tuesday to $262.80, a three-month low, though movement was strong at 152 loads, indicating retailers remain ready buyers on price drops.
October live cattle fell as low as $143.70, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $143.675 on Aug. 15.

Hog futures are sharply lower, led by the nearby October contract.

Lean hog futures extended Tuesday’s late slide and sank to the lowest levels since early July on expectations for further cash weakness.
Futures traders appear to see further erosion in cash, as illustrated by October futures’ discount of over $28 to the CME lean hog index. The index is down 80 cents today to $119.18, a one-month low.
Wholesale pork is also eroding, as pork cutout values fell $12.53 Tuesday to $105.08, a 2 1/2-month low that was led by a decline of nearly $49 in bellies. But movement soared to 416 loads, the biggest one-day total since January.
October lean hogs fell as low as $90.675, the contract’s lowest closing price since July 6.

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