Putin Recognizes Independence of Ukraine Separatist Regions in Move Seen as First Step

Biden blocks all U.S. investments in Ukrainian separatist regions
 

Puti— Updates:

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic on Monday. Earlier on Monday, the heads of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian republics requested the Kremlin leader recognize their independence and sovereignty. Donetsk and Luhansk are controlled by Russian-backed separatists and have some of the highest percentages of ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking residents in Ukraine.
• Putin also signed “friendship and mutual assistance” treaties, raising the possibility that Russia could move some of the forces it has built up around Ukraine’s borders into those territories. Some 700,000 Donbas residents hold Russian passports and around one million applied for passports in recent days, Russian officials said.
• The Donbas region has grown closer to Russia since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and the two key cities have proclaimed themselves as the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic. Neither area is recognized as independent by the U.S. or other world powers, and both are considered terrorist organizations by the Ukrainian government. Putin’s security council on Monday urged him to recognize them as independent.
• Putin gave a lengthy televised address in which he accused Ukraine of being a “puppet” of the U.S. and said its citizens were being brutalized by its government. He further laid out a long history of grievances since the fall of the Soviet Union and the loss of the states that once made it up.
• Putin also issued a thinly veiled threat against the government of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. “As for those who captured and is holding on to power in Kyiv, we demand that they immediately cease military action,” Putin said at the end of his nearly hourlong speech, referring to the Ukrainian capital. “If not, the complete responsibility for the possibility of a continuation of bloodshed will be fully and wholly on the conscience of the regime ruling the territory of Ukraine.” Russian state television has broadcast extensive reports claiming that Ukraine is preparing an offensive against the separatist territories — claims that Kyiv denies.
• Expansionist ideas. Viktor V. Zolotov, Putin’s former bodyguard and the head of Russia’s National Guard, hinted that the Kremlin needed control of more than just Ukraine’s eastern regions to eliminate the threat posed by the country’s pro-Western shift. “We don’t have a border with Ukraine — we have a border with America, because they are the masters in that country,” Zolotov said. “Of course, we must recognize the republics, but I want to say that we must go farther in order to defend our country.”
• Next steps: Putin is waiting for his opponents’ response, promised tough U.S./European sanctions. President Joe Biden telephoned French and German leaders. A White House statement said: ‘We have anticipated a move like this from Russia and are ready to respond immediately. President Biden will soon issue an Executive Order (E.O.) that will prohibit new investment, rate, and financing by U.S. persons to, from or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine. This E.O. will also provide authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine.” But such sanctions are already being labeled laughable by some if not increased on Russia itself. Observers say this is the opening act of an invasion of Ukraine, in which if sanctions are not significant, will lead to more states in Ukraine being taken off and putting them under control of Moscow.  If more significant and promised sanctions come, this would be followed by an escalation of the conflict, perhaps moving tanks and troops into the newly declared “independent states” of Ukraine. The next stage is Russia strangulation of Ukraine, sources signal. Putin’s initial move is one of many ahead, Russia watchers note.
• Regarding much threatened U.S./European sanctions, Putin’s actions signal he does not think they will dramatically impact Russia or its economy.
• Attack without weapons? Recognizing the two breakaway regions "would be a sort of attack without weapons," France's Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told a parliamentary hearing earlier Monday.
• Secretary of State Tony Blinken had said such recognition would also "call into further question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis, and necessitate a swift and firm response from the United States in full coordination with our Allies and partners."
• Initial market impacts: U.S. stock markets were closed on Monday, but the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.3%. The MOEX, Russia’s benchmark stock index, dropped 10.5%, which was the largest daily percentage decline since March 2014 during Russia’s invasion of Crimea. Ukraine’s hryvnia and Russia’s ruble both fell against the dollar. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 1.4% to $94.84 a barrel.