Some Predictors Keep Upping Likely GOP Net Gains in House; Senate Fate Still Uncertain

China weighs gradual zero-Covid exit
 

Today’s dispatch is abbreviated as after I vote, I am en route to Omaha, Neb., to speak to the ABA Ag Bankers Association.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for slightly higher openings.

For the midterm elections, it’s all over but the voting and the time it will take to declare winners. Usually slow Pa. and Arizona, and a possible Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia’s Senate race, could mean results will be days, weeks or longer.

Stocks rally ahead of midterm elections, key inflation data. U.S. stocks rallied Monday ahead of today's midterm elections and the release of a key inflation report. The Dow gained 425.96 points to close at 32,829.18; the S&P 500 jumped 36.58 points to close at 3,807.13; and the Nasdaq rose 89.26 points to close at 10,564.52. Control of both houses of Congress is up for grabs as many races are considered toss-ups, with nonpartisan predictors saying the GOP will take control of the House. Predictors are on both sides of who will control the Senate.

     The likeliest House outcome is a "GOP gain of between 15 and 30 seats, with more uncertainty than usual. ... [A]nything from a very narrow GOP majority to a Republican rout of more than 30 seats is well within the realm of possibility," writes Dave Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Some other predictors are above Wasserman's high end. 

Big election question: With the key issues (economy, inflation (gas/diesel and food prices), crime and border protection all favoring the Republicans, many wonder why the GOP isn’t favoring better than polls signal. Some say it’s because the U.S. has gone from voting for the best person to voting for their party’s political candidates. This could be why some flawed candidates are doing much better than expected.

The White House wouldn’t commit to Biden holding the traditional post-election news conference. The president will leave for a trip to Egypt, Cambodia and Indonesia Thursday evening. In a sign the GOP may have good election results, various Democrats and their supporting groups are already playing the blame game.

Pelosi says her political future is impacted by assault on husband. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) addressed her future in the House during an interview last night with CNN’s Anderson Cooper. This was her first interview since her husband, Paul Pelosi, was attacked in their San Francisco home.

China weighs gradual zero-Covid exit. Chinese leaders are considering steps toward reopening after nearly three years of tough pandemic restrictions. Chinese officials have grown concerned about the costs of their zero-tolerance approach to smothering Covid-19 outbreaks, which has resulted in lockdowns of cities and whole provinces, crushing business activity and confining hundreds of millions of people at home. But they are proceeding slowly, weighing potential costs of reopening for public health and support for the Communist Party

WTI crude futures fell more than 1% to below $91 per barrel on Tuesday, extending a 0.9% fall in the previous session as China reaffirmed its commitment to the zero-Covid policy that has dampened demand in the world’s top crude importer.

Gold prices have risen 62% of the time over the six months following midterm elections, with a median return of 2%, according to a World Gold Council report using data going back to 1970.

Second job needed. As the holidays approach and America’s full-time workers feel pinched by inflation, some are turning to second jobs to supplement their incomes. Nearly three-quarters of workers said they need additional work to make enough income due to inflation, according to an October survey of U.S.-based employees by job search website Monster.com. A separate survey from Prudential Financial found 81% of Gen-Z and 77% of millennial workers said they have pursued gig work or are considering additional side work this year to supplement their income.

North American companies will have to come up with $155 billion to cover rising interest expenses in 2022 and 2023, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Fitch Ratings of the companies it rates.

Ukrainian officials say that newly arrived Western air defense systems will help deal with the threat of Iranian ballistic missiles reportedly being purchased by Russia. But Ukraine's Air Force might need to target the Iranian missiles at their launch sites -- which would probably be well inside Russia. "They must somehow be destroyed, probably from where they are launched. Because we have no effective means of fighting ballistic [missiles], except for their physical destruction at the launch stage," Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said.

U.N. chief on climate: 'Cooperate or perish'. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres opened the COP27 summit in Egypt on Monday by giving countries a stark choice: work together now to cut emissions or condemn future generations to climate catastrophe. The speech was intended to set an urgent tone as governments sit down for two weeks of talks on how to avert the worst impacts of climate change, even as they are distracted by Russia's war in Ukraine, rampant consumer inflation and energy shortages.

     Poor countries need $2 trillion a year to help them cut their greenhouse-gas emissions and cope with the effects of climate change, according to a new report presented in Egypt at COP27. Around half of that amount would have to come via external financing, mostly from the private sector, it said, and it urged rich countries to ramp up the grants and loans they provide.

Minor changes in ERP payments. Payments under the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) are now at $7.13 billion as of Nov. 6, up from $7.11 billion the prior week. The total includes $6.11 billion for non-specialty crops ($6.1 billion prior) and $1.02 billion for specialty crops ($1.01 billion prior).

The European Union’s executive signaled it does not see a price cap on imported natural gas as the best tool to rein in an unprecedented energy crisis and instead suggested a plan that would spread the soaring costs over time.

People who took Paxlovid within a few days of contracting Covid were less likely to experience long-term symptoms, a new study found.

Supreme Court hints it may back court challenges to SEC, FTC. The Supreme Court signaled it may open a new avenue for companies and people to fight off complaints by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC), hearing arguments in cases that could undercut the clout of two powerful market regulators. The justices are considering whether those facing agency claims can go straight to federal court with constitutional challenges — including attacks on the use of in-house judges to handle cases. Critics say the system gives agencies an unfair home-field advantage.

Subtropical Storm Nicole is on track to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane this week as it approaches Florida. The storm is packing torrential rain and damaging winds that could lead to dangerous storm surges beginning Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said. More than 20 million people are under tropical storm alerts from Florida to Georgia.

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS  | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook | 2022 Midterm elections |