USDA lowers 2024 food price outlook amid an anticipated decline in grocery store prices

USDA forecasts all food prices will increase 1.2% in 2024, with food away from home (restaurant) prices expected to rise 4.9% while food at home (grocery store) prices seen declining 0.6%. The all food and grocery store price forecasts are down from expected gains of 2.9% and 1.6%, respectively, last month, while the restaurant price outlook is up from the November forecast for a 4.3% rise. That would be the smallest annual increase in overall food prices since they rose 0.9% in 2017 and the steepest decline in grocery prices since they fell 1.3% in 2016.

The decline forecast for grocery prices in 2024 comes as several downward revisions were made to the outlooks for various products. Meats, poultry and fish are now seen up 1.5%, a sharp decline from an increase of 4.6% forecast in November, reflecting down revisions for the categories of meats, beef and veal, pork, other meats and poultry. Pork prices are now seen falling 1.3% in 2024, a major downward revision from the increase of 3.6% expected in the November outlook. Beef prices are seen up 4.8% (7.8% in November), other meats are seen up 2.9% (3.1% in November), and poultry prices are expected to rise 2.2% (3.3% in November).

Egg prices are seen declining 12.7%, which is less of a decline than the 14.7% forecast in November. But USDA cautioned the confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in table egg layer flocks, which started in November and has continued in December, is something to be “monitored closely.”

For 2023, USDA predicted all food prices up 5.8% (unchanged), with restaurant prices rising 7.1% (unchanged) and grocery prices increasing 5.0% (5.2% previously).