USDA's Initial 2021-22 Carryover Projections Smaller Than Expected

Posted on Fri, 02/19/2021 - 06:53

USDA at its annual Ag Outlook Forum issues initial projections for the 2021-22 marketing year. Following are some of the highlights from the many pages of updates the department issues. Expectations in the table below are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).

  • Corn: Planted acreage of 92.0 million, with harvested acres of 84.4 million. A national average corn yield of 179.5 bu. per acre would produce a crop of 15.150 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 15.125 billion bu., with feed and residual use of 5.850 billion bu., food, seed & industrial use of 6.625 billion bu. (5.200 billion bu. for ethanol) and exports of 2.650 billion bushels. Carryover: 1.552 billion bushels. Price: $4.20 per bushel.
  • Soybeans: Planted acreage of 90.0 million, with harvested acres at 89.1 million. A national average bean yield of 50.8 bu. per acre would result in a crop of 4.525 billion bushels. Crush is projected at 2.210 billion bu. and exports at 2.200 billion bushels. Carryover: 145 million bushels. Price: $11.25 per bushel.
  • Wheat: Planted acreage of 45.0 million, with harvested acres at 37.2 million. A national average yield of 49.1 bu. per acre would produce a crop of 1.827 billion bushels. Total domestic use is projected at 1.170 billion bu., with exports forecast at 925 million bushels. Carryover: 698 million bushels. Price: $5.50 per bushel.
  • Cotton: Planted acreage of 12.0 million, with harvested acres at 10.0 million and a national average yield of 840 lbs. per acre. That would produce a crop of 17.50 million bales. Total use is forecast at 18.0 million bales. Carryover: 3.8 million bales. Price: 75¢ per pound.
  • Cattle: Beef production for 2021 is projected at 27.5 billion lbs., up 1.4% from last year. Total commercial cattle slaughter is projected 1% higher for the year. Exports are forecast to rise 6.4% to 3.1 billion pounds. U.S. beef imports are expected to total 3.0 billion lbs., down 10.1%. Price: $115 per cwt.
  • Hogs: Pork production for 2021 is projected at a record-high 28.7 billion lbs., up 1.4% from 2020. Exports are forecast to slip 1.5% to 7.2 billion pounds. Price: $50.50 per cwt.

USDA’s Initial 2021-22 Projections

                Corn     

 

Planted acres
(mil. acres)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Production
(bil. bu.)

Ending Stocks
(bil. bu.)

USDA

92.0

179.5

15.150

1.552

Average est.

92.9

178.4

15.160

1.665

USDA long-term forecast for 2021

90.0

180.5

14.890

2.257

USDA final 2020

90.8

172.0

14.182

1.502
(Feb. proj.)

Soybeans

 

Planted acres
(mil. acres)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Production
(bil. bu.)

Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)

USDA

90.0

50.8

4.525

145

Average est.

89.4

50.9

4.506

184

USDA long-term forecast for 2021

89.0

50.6

4.465

255

USDA final 2020

83.1

50.2

4.135

120
(Feb. proj.)

Wheat

 

Planted acres
(mil. acres)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Production
(bil. bu.)

Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)

USDA

45.0

49.1

1.827

698

Average est.

45.5

49.4

1.879

739

USDA long-term forecast for 2021

46.0

49.1

1.890

830

USDA final 2020

44.3

49.7

1.826

836
(Feb. proj.)

Cotton

 

Planted acres
(mil. acres)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Production
(mil. bales)

Ending Stocks
(mil. bales)

USDA

12.0

840

17.50

3.80

Average est.

11.77

NA

16.43

3.87

USDA long-term forecast for 2021
(upland only)

11.20

850

16.90

6.36

USDA final 2020

12.09

825

14.95

4.30
(Feb. proj.)