USDA Raises Corn & Soybean Production, Surprising the Market

Posted on Fri, 01/10/2020 - 10:56

But today’s update includes “significant” unharvested area and is subject to revision “later this spring.” This is an important caveat that means the verdict is still out on crop size. Following is the “special note” USDA released in conjunction with today’s data:  

 “USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will re-contact respondents who previously reported acreage not yet harvested in Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin in the spring, once producers are able to finish harvesting remaining acres. If the newly collected data justifies any changes, NASS will update the Jan. 10 estimates in a future report. Stocks estimates are also subject to review since unharvested production is included in the estimate of on-farm stocks.

When producers were surveyed for the Crop Production 2019 Summary there was significant unharvested acreage of corn in Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; and soybean acreage not yet harvested in Michigan, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The unharvested area and expected production were included in the totals released on Jan. 10.

As a result of this work, NASS may release updated acreage, yield, production, and stocks estimates for corn and soybeans later this spring. Because farmers’ ability to complete harvest is impacted by winter weather, timing of the re-contacts and subsequent publication schedule will be announced at a later date.”

Expectations in the tables that follow are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).

 

2019 U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested area (million acres)

USDA

13.692

168.0

81.482

Average est.

13.513

166.2

81.350

USDA November

13.661

167.0

81.815

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested area (million acres)

USDA

3.558

47.4

75.021

Average est.

3.512

46.6

75.462

USDA November

3.550

46.9

75.626

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested area (million acres)

USDA

20.102

817

11.805

Average est.*

20.03

NA

NA

USDA November

20.21

775

12.51

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks

Corn – billion bu.

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

11.389

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2019

11.511

USDA Sept. 1, 2019

2.221

USDA Dec. 1, 2018

11.937

 

Soybeans – billion bu.

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

3.252

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2019

3.186

USDA Sept. 1, 2019

0.909

USDA Dec. 1, 2018

3.746

 

Wheat – billion bu.

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

1.834

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2019

1.917

USDA Sept. 1, 2019

2.346

USDA Dec. 1, 2018

2.009

 

Today’s Winter Wheat Seedings report shows 2020 plantings at 30.804 million acres, the second lowest U.S. winter wheat acreage on record.

Expectations for
Winter Wheat Seedings

All winter wheat – million acres

USDA

30.804

Average est.

30.664

USDA final 2019

31.159

 

HRW wheat – million acres

USDA

21.80

Average est.

22.086

USDA final 2019

22.458

 

SRW wheat – million acres

USDA

5.64

Average est.

5.118

USDA final 2019

5.201

 

White winter wheat – million acres

USDA

3.37

Average est.

3.490

USDA final 2019

3.500

 

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2019-20

USDA

1.892

Average est.

1.757

USDA December

1.910

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2019-20

USDA

475

Average est.

424

USDA December

475

 

Wheat – billion bushels

 

2019-20

USDA

965

Average est.

969

USDA December

974

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2019-20

USDA

5.40

Average est.*

5.44

USDA December

5.50

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2019-20

USDA

297.81

World less China

98.74

Average est.

296.61

USDA December

300.56

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2019-20

USDA

96.67

World less China

76.94

Average est.

95.23

USDA December

96.40

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

USDA

288.08

World less China

140.62

Average est.

287.32

USDA December

289.50

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

USDA

79.59

World less China

46.85

Average est. *

80.20

USDA December

80.32

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

January (December)

2018-19

January (December)

U.S.

364.26 (366.29)

 347.78 (347.01)

Argentina

51.00 (51.00)

50.00 (50.00)

Brazil

 101.00 (101.00)

 101.00 (101.00)

South Africa

11.80 (11.80)

 14.00 (14.00)

Ukraine

35.81 (35.81)

35.50 (35.50)

China

257.33 (257.33)

 260.77 (260.77)

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

January (December)

2019-20

January (December)

U.S.

 120.52 (120.52)

96.84 (96.62)

Argentina

         55.30 (55.30)

53.00 (53.00)

Brazil

117.00 (117.00)

 123.00 (123.00)

Paraguay

 8.85 (8.85)

10.20 (10.20)

China

15.97 (15.90)

18.10 (18.10)

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

January (December)

2019-20

January (December)

U.S.

51.31 (51.31)

52.26 (52.26)

Argentina

19.50 (19.50)

19.00 (19.00)

Australia

        17.30 (17.30)

15.60 (16.10)

Canada

32.20 (32.20)

 32.35 (32.35)

EU

136.86 (136.86)

154.00 (153.50)

Russia

71.69 (71.69)

 73.50 (74.50)

Ukraine

25.06 (25.06)

29.00 (29.00)

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

January (December)

2019-20

January (December)

U.S.

18.37 (18.37)

20.10 (20.21)

Australia

2.20 (2.20)

0.68 (0.85)

Brazil

12.52 (12.52)

12.50 (12.50)

India

25.80 (25.80)

29.50 (29.50)

China

27.75 (27.75)

 27.25 (27.25)