South American Crop Prospects on the Rise

Posted on Thu, 02/13/2020 - 14:34

The consultancy AgroConsult hiked its Argentine soybean crop estimate by 2 MMT today, pushing its estimates to 126.3 MMT, easily a record. Harvest of the 2019-20 crop is underway, and early yields have been good.

The consultancy also edged its safrinha corn crop estimate 700,000 MT higher to 74.7 MMT. Planting of that crop is just getting started, but the combination of strong domestic and export demand along with a sliding currency is giving producers plenty of incentive to plant a second-season corn crop—even after the ideal planting window has closed.

The weak currency, attractive prices and uncertainty about how the Phase 1 trade deal between the U.S. and China has encouraged Brazilian producers to aggressively sell their 2019-20 crop. In Brazil’s top-producing Mato Grosso province, farmers have sold 68% of their crop, which is 14 points more advanced than last year and the five-year average. Farmers have also looked ahead and sold 13% of their 2020-21 crop. Last year at this time, none of the 2019-20 crop had been marketed.

Farmers in Mato Grosso have sold 64% of their 2019-20 corn crop, which compares to 47% sold last year and 44% on average.


Timely rains also boosting Argentine crop prospects

Good weather prompted the Rosario grains exchange add 1 MMT to both its soybean and corn production estimates for Argentina that now stand at 55 MMT and 50 MMT, respectively. The exchange detailed that “last week’s rains appeared at a key moment.”

In a weekly report yesterday, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the Argentine corn crop at 49 MMT. That’s the exchange’s first forecast for the crop.