Market Snapshot | September 7, 2021

Corn futures are mostly 9 to 12 cents lower, with the December contract near a two-month low.

Futures extended last week’s 5.4% slide as traders prepare for USDA’s Sept. 10 Crop Production Report, in which the agency is widely expected to hike its yield and production estimates.
U.S. farmers will harvest 14.94 billion bu. of corn this year at an average national yield of 175.8 bu. an acre, based on average estimates in a Reuters survey of analysts. In August, USDA estimated the crop at 14.75 billion bu. and the average yield at 174.6 bu. per acre.
Rains across much of the Midwest last week benefitted crops, crop consultant Michael Cordonnier said in a weekly report, though he kept his corn yield forecast unchanged, at 175.5 bu., per acre ahead of USDA’s crop condition updates this afternoon.
USDA today reported 275,799 metric tons (MT) of corn inspected for export during the week ending Sept. 2, down from 583,498 MT the previous week.
Brazil-based AgRural cut its Brazilian corn crop estimate by 300,000 MT to 81.9 million MT as harvest of the drought-impacted safrinha crop nears completion.
Speculators known as managed funds reduced their net long position in corn futures and options to 258,785 contracts as of Aug. 31, the second consecutive weekly decline, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
December futures have fallen to the lowest intraday price since $5.07 on July 9. Chart levels to watch include the 200-day moving average around $5.03 1/2 and the May low at $5.00 1/4.

Soy complex futures are lower, with soybeans mostly down 8 to 9 cents.

Soybean futures erased overnight gains as trade prepares for USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings later today and the updated crop estimate on Friday.
U.S. farmers will harvest 4.337 billion bu. of soybeans this year at an average national yield of 50.4 bu. an acre, based on average estimates in a Reuters survey of analysts. In August, USDA estimated the crop at 4.339 billion bu. and the average yield at 50 bu. per acre.
Cordonnier left his U.S. soybean yield and production forecasts unchanged at 50 bu. per acre and 4.33 billion bushels, respectively.
USDA today reported 68,059 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending Sept. 2, down from 386,839 MT the previous week.
China imported nearly 9.5 MMT of soybeans in August, up 9.5% from July but down 1.1% compared with last year. In the first eight months of this year, China imported 67.1 MMT of soybeans, up 3.6% from the same period last year.
Managed funds reduced their net long position in soybean futures and options to 69,141 contracts as of Aug. 31, the lowest since August 2020, CFTC data showed.
November futures rose as high as $13.05 3/4 overnight after dropping 2.4% last week. Chart levels to watch include last week’s high at $13.36 1/4 and last week’s low at $12.70.

Wheat futures are mostly 7 to 11 cents slower after erasing overnight gains.

HRW and SRW futures climbed overnight to the highest levels in about a week but couldn’t sustain upside momentum early today, burdened by spillover weakness from corn and soybeans.
USDA reported a daily sale of 327,300 metric tons (MT) of hard red winter wheat for delivery to Nigeria during the 2021-22 marketing year.
Also today, USDA reported 381,551 MT of wheat inspected for export during the week ending Sept. 2, up from 370,461 MT the previous week.
Australia is expected to produce its second largest wheat crop ever in 2021-22 due to excellent growing conditions in June and July, The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised its Australian wheat crop estimate to 32.6 MMT, up 4.8 MMT from a June forecast.
December SRW futures overnight rose as high as $7.33 1/4, the highest price since Aug. 30, after posting a 6-cent loss last week.

Cattle futures are lower, with October live cattle dropping to the lowest price since late July.

Live cattle futures extended last week’s 3.3% decline amid pressure from slumping wholesale beef and concerns over demand.
Choice cutout values fell $1.50 Friday to $336.42, the lowest in nearly three weeks. Live slaughter-ready steers averaged $125.73 to end last week, nearly matching the average from the week before.
Cattle slaughter last week totaled an estimated 624,000 head of cattle, down 4.1% from the same period a week earlier as meatpackers sharply reduced Saturday’s kill, according to a USDA report. Last week’s slaughter was down 1.7% from the same week a year earlier.
Brazil’s ag ministry confirmed two cases of atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), one in Mato Grosso and the other in Minas Gerais. As a result, the country suspended beef exports. But importers in China, Brazil’s top customer, hope the suspension is short-term since the cases were atypical.
October live cattle fell as low as $124.55, the contract’s lowest price since July 21.

Lean hog futures are lower, with October near a two-week low.

Futures remain under pressure from wholesale pork market weakness and expectations for rising supplies.
Pork carcass cutout values fell $1.12 Friday to an average of $108.15, down 7.2% for the week and near a five-month low reached earlier in the week.
The latest CME Lean Hog index fell $1.26 to $100.06, the lowest since $99.38 on April 1 but still over $10 above nearby futures. The index is down 18% from a seven-year high in mid-June.
Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 2.398 million head of hogs last week, down 1.6% from the same period last week and down 2.8% for the comparable period a year ago, USDA reported.
October lean hogs fell as low as $88.125 per hundredweight, the contract’s lowest price since $87.60 on Aug. 26

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