Market Snapshot | September 26, 2022

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Corn futures are 4 to 6 cents lower at midsession.

  • Corn futures are under pressure from the U.S. dollar’s extended rally to 20-year highs and intensifying concerns over global recession.
  • USDA reported 459,420 MT (18.1 million bu.) of corn inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 22, down from 549,476 MT the previous week and short of trade expectations ranged from 500,000 to 800,000 MT.
  • By the end of the 2022-23 crop year, the world’s buffer stocks of corn will be enough for just 80 days’ worth of consumption, down 28% from five years ago and the lowest level since 2010-11, according to figures compiled for Reuters by the International Grains Council.
  • USDA will update harvest progress after today’s close. Last week, USDA said 7% of the U.S. crop was harvested as of Sept. 18, up from 5% a week earlier but slightly behind the 8% average for the previous five years.
  • Large speculators earlier this month increased their bullish bets in the corn market to the highest level since mid-June, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
  • South Korea purchased 135,000 MT of corn from unspecified origins.
  • December corn fell to $6.70, just 1/2 cent above Friday’s low. Support at the 100-day moving average of $6.65 1/2 is backed by trendline support around $6.61.

Soy complex futures are lower, with soybeans down 6 to 8 cents, December soymeal down around $3 and December soyoil down more than 40 points.

  • Soybean futures fell to two-week lows as crude oil dropped to the lowest levels since early January amid growing concerns over the global economy.
  • USDA reported 257,547 MT (9.5 million bu.) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 22, down from 519,698 MT the previous week and below expectations ranging from 385,000 to 800,000 MT.
  • Soymeal prices in China are at record highs as rising demand from farmers follows months of lackluster soybean imports. Chinese soymeal prices surged to an average of 5,352 yuan ($747.94) per metric ton on Friday.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures fell 5.1% to a 15-month low on an outlook for ample supply and weaker demand.
  • November soybeans dropped under the 50-day moving average overnight and fell as low as $14.11, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 12. Further weakness may have bears targeting trendline support comes in around $14.03.

Wheat futures are lower, led by declines of 10 to 14 cents in HRW and SRW contracts.

  • Wheat futures are under pressure from the surging dollar and general “risk-off” sentiment in global financial markets.
  • USDA reported 520,464 MT (19.1 million bu.) of wheat inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 22, down from 836,620 MT the previous week and around the middle of expectations ranging from 200,000 to 800,000 MT.
  • Last week, USDA reported 21% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Sept. 18, above the five-year average of 17%.
  • Taiwan tendered to buy 51,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat. The UN World Food Program tendered to buy 100,000 MT of milling wheat to be donated to poorer countries.
  • December SRW wheat fell under the 10-day moving average around $8.73 overnight and dropped as low as $8.61 1/4, above support at the 20-day moving average of $8.52.

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are firmer at midmorning.

  • Live cattle futures firmed as recent strength in the cash market overshadowed mildly bearish USDA Cattle on Feed numbers.
  • Feeder cattle are slightly higher on weakness in corn futures.
  • USDA reported the Sept. 1 feedlot inventory at 0.4% over the same date a year earlier, while placements during August rose 0.4%, contrary to expectations for a drop of about 2.7%. Marketings during August climbed 6.4%.
  • USDA-reported live steers averaged $144.55 last week through Friday morning, up from the previous week’s $143.19 average and the second consecutive weekly increase.
  • December live cattle rose as high as $149.60, meeting resistance at the 50-day moving average.

Hog futures are lower, led by declines in December and February contracts.

  • Lean hogs are under pressure from renewed weakness in cash fundamentals and followthrough from a soft performance last week.
  • The national direct cash hog price fell $7.69 on Friday, while the CME lean hog index is down 42 cents to $97.59 (as of Sept. 22). October hogs are currently about $5.70 under the cash index, suggesting traders expect more near-term pressure on the cash hog market.
  • Weakness in the wholesale market is also burdening futures. Pork cutout values fell $2.95 Friday to $100.93, the lowest daily average since mid-May.
  • December lean hogs fell as low as $81.675, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 9.
 

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