Market Snapshot | September 22, 2022

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midsession.

Corn futures are up slightly in narrow-range, two-sided trading as the market continues to monitor the Ukraine conflict.
USDA reported daily corn sales of 105,000 MT for delivery to Mexico and 101,600 MT to “unknown destinations,” both during the 2022-23 marketing year.
USDA reported net U.S. corn sales of 182,300 MT for the week ended Sept. 15, down sharply from 583,100 MT the previous week and well below trade expectations for 400,000 to 850,000 MT. Exports totaled 563,000 MT, primarily to Mexico (259,000 MT), China (142,300 MT) and Japan (137,000 MT).
Frost and freezes occurred across parts of the north-central U.S. Plains overnight, ending the growing season with a few extreme lows dipping into the upper 20s Fahrenheit, World Weather Inc. said. “The impact of the cold should not be too great, but some of the crops in the region were not fully mature,” the forecaster said.
Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate for the country’s 2022-23 corn crop to 56 MMT, down 2 MMT from a previous figure after drought has delayed planting.
December corn is trading within Wednesday’s range and just above the 10-day moving average at $6.85 1/2. Initial support comes in at the 20-day moving average at $6.76 3/4.

Soy complex futures are mixed, with soybeans down 2 to 4 cents, soymeal down $7 to $9 and soyoil up more than 100 points.

Soybean futures fell a second day amid disappointing export numbers and a downturn in soymeal.
USDA reported net weekly U.S. soybean sales of 446,400 MT for 2022-23, which included China (152,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 138,200 MT). Sales were down sharply from 843,000 MT the previous week and fell short of expectations ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its Argentina soybean crop forecast by 1 MMT to 48 MMT as it now expects 200,000 hectares originally intended for corn to be switched to soybeans.
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks could rise to a 3-1/2-year high by the end of 2022 as exports are likely to take a hit from rival Indonesia waiving export levies to bring down stockpiles, a senior government official told Reuters.
November soybeans fell as low as $14.48 3/4, about a penny above 100-day moving average support. December soymeal dropped sharply after earlier reaching a contract high at $443.80.

Winter wheat futures climbed amid chart strength and concerns over Ukraine disruptions offset disappointing export sales and a surge in the U.S. dollar index to a 20-year high.
Net weekly wheat sales totaled 183,500 MT for 2022-23, including China (134,300 MT, including 130,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Sales were down from 217,300 MT the previous week and fell short of expectations ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2022-23 global wheat production by 14 MMT to 792 MMT, partly reflecting an upward revision for the crop in Russia. IGC expects Russia’s crop to total 93.4 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 87.6 million.
Consultancy SovEcon also raised its outlook for Russia’s 2022 wheat crop, boosting its forecast to 100 MMT from 94.7 MMT due to high yields of spring wheat.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine wheat crop estimate by 1.2 MMT to 16.5 MMT after drought reduced yield potential.
December SRW wheat is trading inside Wednesday’s range after meeting resistance at the 200-day moving average around $9.15.

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are mostly lower at midmorning.

Live cattle futures dropped to the lowest levels in a week on pressure from continuing slump in wholesale beef prices and concerns with demand.
Choice boxed beef values dropped $2.51 Wednesday to $249.13, the lowest since March 2021. Falling boxed beef prices may prompt packers to reduce cattle purchases until wholesale prices stabilize.
Cash cattle prices are trending firmer for the second straight week but trade has been light ahead of USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report Friday.
USDA reported net weekly U.S. beef sales of 15,200 MT for 2022, primarily for China (6,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT) and Japan (3,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT).
USDA will detail frozen meat stocks at the end of August in this afternoon’s Cold Storage Report. The five-year average is a 20.1-million-lb. increase in beef stocks.
October live cattle fell as low as $145.025, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 15.

Hog futures are mixed after rebounding from initial declines.

Lean hogs extended Wednesday’s weakness at today’s open before bouncing back, but the market remains pressured by slumping wholesale pork prices.
Pork cutout values fell $4.60 Wednesday to a four-month low of $100.35, driven by a plunge of more than $19 in bellies. The cutout appears poised to drop below $100.00 for the first time since May 12 as packers are cutting prices to keep product moving through the pipeline amid reduced retailer interest.
The CME lean hog index is down 40 cents to $97.96 (as of Sept. 20).
USDA reported net weekly pork sales of 29,000 MT for 2022, primarily for Mexico (15,500 MT, including decreases of 600 MT). October lean hogs fell $1.55 Wednesday to $94.425, while December hogs fell $1.725 to $86.45.
USDA’s Cold Storage Report will detail pork stocks at the end of August. The five-year average is a 12.3-million-lb. rise in pork stocks during the month.
October lean hogs fell as low as $93.75, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 12, before rebounding.

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