Market Snapshot | November 16, 2021

Corn futures are around 4 cents lower at mid-morning and trading within yesterday’s range.  

• Corn is under mild profit-taking pressure following last week’s gains. Pressure is coming from sharp losses in the wheat market.
• USDA reported a daily corn sale of 270,000 MT to Mexico for delivery during the 2021-22 marketing year.
• USDA reported the U.S. corn crop was 91% harvested as of Nov. 14, up from 84% a week earlier and above the 86% average for that date for the previous five years. Harvest progress matched trade expectations.
• SovEcon raised its Ukrainian corn crop estimate by 1.5 MMT to a record 39.9 MMT, as the country continues to report strong yields. USDA projects Ukraine’s corn crop at 38 MMT. China recently booked Ukrainian corn, according to export sources.
• China is starting to buy U.S. grain sorghum, possibly six unit trains, according to one industry source.
• Bulls have a near-term technical advantage in corn futures with a five-week uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March futures above resistance at the November high of $5.93 1/2.
• For market bears, downside targets include closing March futures below support at $5.57 1/2. Other chart levels to watch include the 10-day moving average around $5.64 1/2.

Soybean futures are mildly weaker, while soybean meal futures are lower and soybean oil is over 2.0% higher.

• Soybeans have traded both sides of unchanged as the market consolidates following last week’s gains, while soymeal is under a corrective setback from yesterday’s rally to four-month highs.
• USDA reported a daily soybean sale of 161,000 MT for delivery to “unknown destinations” for the 2021-22 marketing year. Today’s sale announcement followed a daily sale yesterday of 264,000 MT, also for unknown destinations.
• Late yesterday, USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 92% harvested as of Nov. 14, up from 87% a week earlier and just under the five-year average of 93%. Harvest progress matched trade expectations.
• Well-timed rainfall is expected in both Brazil and Argentina over the next 10 days, World Weather Inc. said. “Sufficient rain will support ongoing field progress, including the planting of summer crops and the advancement of early planted grain and oilseeds,” the forecaster said.
• January soybeans overnight reached $12.61 1/2, the highest intraday price since $12.66 1/4 on Oct. 27, before pulling back. Market bears still have a near-term technical advantage, but a five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled.

Wheat futures are lower, led by declines of over 15 cents in spring wheat.

• Winter wheat is under profit-taking pressure after SRW futures closed yesterday near a nine-year high. Spring wheat continued to retreat, hitting the lowest level in over three weeks.
• USDA’s latest crop condition ratings showed slight improvement in winter wheat. As of Nov. 14, the crop was rated 46% “good” or “excellent” condition, up from 45% a week earlier and slightly above trade expectations.
• When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 5.9 points to 332.9, still 9.0 below the five-year average for mid-November. For the SRW crop, the CCI rose 2.0 points to 367.1, 4.9 points above the five-year average.
• No meaningful moisture is expected in the driest areas of the U.S. HRW belt over the week ahead, World Weather said. Unirrigated crops are “still in a need of greater moisture to promote better establishment,” the forecaster said.
• SovEcon issued its first forecast for Ukraine’s 2022-23 wheat crop, with a projection of 27.1 MMT, down 15.0% from its estimate for this year.
• December SRW wheat futures are heading for the first decline in the past seven sessions, falling as low as $8.16 1/2. Chart levels to watch include yesterday’s high at $8.29 1/2.
• December spring wheat fell as low as $9.99, the lowest intraday price since Oct. 22.

Cattle futures are slightly higher and trading within tight ranges.

• Live cattle futures extended the sideways trade of the past two weeks amid expectations the cash market’s recent upward momentum will slow after two weeks of aggressive packer buying.
• Live steers rose $2.24 last week to an average of $131.47, the sixth consecutive weekly gain and the highest weekly average since early June 2017. Packers bought 119,000 head after buying 97,000 head the previous week.
• Wholesale beef prices continue to slide, indicating record retail prices are pinching demand. Choice cutout values fell $1.10 yesterday to an average of $283.20, the lowest since $283.04 on Oct. 25.
• Bulls have a near-term technical advantage in live cattle, but a six-week uptrend on the daily bar chart is losing momentum. Chart levels to watch in December live cattle include yesterday’s high at $132.625, a 2 1/2-month high, and the 100-day moving average around $131.25.

Lean hog futures erased early declines to surge higher at mid-morning.

• Hog futures climbed in a technically-driven breakout from sideways trade the past few sessions, despite weak cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index fell another 51 cents to $76.17, the lowest since mid-February.
• Pork carcass cutout values fell 78 cents yesterday to an average of $93.93. Movement was decent at about 312 loads. National direct cash carcasses fell 54 cents to an average of $57.46.
• December lean hogs surged after pushing above last Friday’s high of $76.525, before hitting resistance around the 40-day moving average at $77.75. Other chart levels to watch in December futures include last week’s low at $73.70.