Market Snapshot | November 15, 2021

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at mid-morning and trading in a narrow range.  

• Futures fell in a corrective pullback from last week’s rally while trading within last Friday’s range.
• USDA early today reported a daily corn sale of 198,200 MT for delivery to Mexico, including 148,200 MT for delivery during the 2021-22 marketing year and 50,000 MT for 2022-23.
• Also today, USDA reported 855,698 MT of corn inspected for export during the week ended Nov. 11, up from 649,023 MT the previous week. Inspections surpassed trade expectations ranging from 485,000 to 750,000 MT.
• USDA’s Crop Progress report after the close today will likely show the corn harvest near completion. The crop was 84% harvested as of Nov. 7.
• Chinese buyers purchased 300,000 to 700,000 MT of Ukrainian-origin corn late last week at estimated prices ranging from $325 to $335 per MT, Reuters reported, citing European traders.
• December corn futures fell as low as $5.69 3/4 after rising 4.4% last week, the third weekly gain in the past four. Chart levels to watch include last week’s intraday high at $5.82 and the 10-day moving average around $5.64 1/4.

Soymeal futures are up over 3.0% to near four-month highs, while soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents higher at midmorning. Soyoil is down over 100 points.

• Soymeal extended the past month’s rally on strengthening technicals and an expected pick-up in demand, helping boost soybean futures near two-week highs.
• Later this morning, NOPA members are expected to report soybean crushing of 181.9 million bu. in October, according to a Reuters survey. The projected number would be up 18.3% from September and the fourth largest crush for any month on record, but 1.8% below October 2020.
• With the U.S. harvest wrapping up, market focus is shifting to exports and South American weather, which has been mostly favorable for early soybean development.
• Brazil and Argentina are expected to get timely rainfall over the next two weeks, “maintaining a mostly good environment for summer crop planting and development,” World Weather Inc. said.
• USDA reported a daily soybean sale of 264,000 MT for delivery to “unknown destinations” for delivery during the 2021-22 marketing year.
• Soybeans inspected for export during the week ended Nov. 11, totaled 2.074 MMT, down from 2.91 MMT the previous week and within trade expectations ranging from 1.625 to 2.5 MMT.
• January soybeans briefly rallied to $12.54, the highest intraday price since $12.57 3/4 on Nov. 3, before trimming gains.
• December soymeal rose as high as $375.30.

Wheat futures are mostly lower, led by a drop of over 25 cents in December spring wheat.

• Winter wheat futures fell in a corrective setback from last week’s rally to multi-year highs, but remained within Friday’s range.
• Wheat inspected for export during the week ended Nov. 11, totaled 388,743 MMT, up from 251,452 MT the previous week. Trade expectations ranged from 150,000 to 375,000 MT.
• Most of the western U.S. HRW wheat areas will be dry over the next two weeks, according to World Weather. A few showers may fall in Nebraska and some easternmost production areas will get rain, but amounts will not be very great in the areas that need moisture most.
• USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings later today likely will continue to reflect moisture stress. As of Nov. 7, USDA rated 45% of the U.S. crop “good” or “excellent,” unchanged from the previous week. Acres rated “poor” or “very poor” rose 1 percentage point to 22%.
• Russian wheat prices gained for the fourth consecutive week amid concerns of further export limits from the world's top wheat exporter.
• December SRW futures fell as low as $8.13 ¾ after rallying 50 1/2 cents last week to $8.17, the highest closing price for a nearby contract since December 2012.

Cattle futures are mostly higher after recovering much of an early slide.

• Live cattle futures extended the sideways to firmer trade of the past two weeks, supported by strong cash prices and tighter animal supplies.
• Live steers on Friday averaged $131.35, up from the previous week's average of $129.23 and near the highest levels in four years.
• Futures gains have been limited by wholesale market weakness and record retail beef prices that are curbing demand. Choice cutout values ended last week at $284.30, down 1.8% from $289.54 at the end of the previous week and the lowest since Oct. 27.
• Still, packer margins remain strong – at nearly $500 per head, according to HedgersEdge.com – enabling them to maintain firmer cash bids if they need the cattle.
• Cattle slaughter last week totaled 655,000 head, up 0.8% from the previous week but down 0.3% from the same week in 2020.
• Chart levels to watch in December live cattle include last week’s intraday high at $132.50, also a two-month high, and the 100-day moving average around $131.25.

Lean hog futures are mostly firmer this morning.

• Futures are trying to firm in most contracts, despite pressure from slumping cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is down $1.27 today to $76.68, the lowest level since mid-February.
• Pork carcass cutout values ended last week at $94.71, down 1.7% for the week but up from a nine-month low Nov. 10.
• Meatpackers last week slaughtered an estimated 2.614 million head, up 0.4% from the previous week but down 2.5% from the same week in 2020. Year-to-date, slaughter is running 2.0% under 2020 levels.
• December lean hog futures are holding within Friday’s range, after ending last week at $75.875. Chart levels to watch in December futures include last week’s low at $73.70 and the 40-day moving average around $77.65.