10:30 a.m. Market Snapshot | Sept. 20, 2021

Corn futures are 4 to 6 cents lower at midsession.

• Grain futures fell overnight as concern over the Chinese economy pushed global stock markets lower and boosted the U.S. dollar index climbed to the highest level in almost a month.
• The northern and eastern Midwest are expected to receive moderate to heavy rain early this week as tropical moisture moves north from the Gulf of Mexico, World Weather Inc. said. Rain totals in Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and southeastern Michigan may range from 1 to 4 inches.
• Customs data shows China imported 3.23 million metric tons (MMT) of corn during August, a 221% surge from year-ago levels. That pushed China’s year-to-date (YTD) corn imports to 21.40 MMT, a 284% jump from last year at this time.
• The U.S. inspected 403,104 MT of corn for export the week ending Sept. 16, up notably from last week’s tally but still well under last year’s 768,084 MT. The tally reminds of ongoing export disruptions at the Gulf due to Hurricane Ida.
• Corn futures may face seasonal pressure as harvest accelerates. USDA will update harvest progress after today’s close. The crop was 4% harvested as of Sept. 12, compared to the five-year average of 5% for that date.
• December corn overnight fell as low as $5.15 3/4, the lowest price since $5.13 on Sept. 14. Chart levels to watch in December futures include last week’s high at $5.37 1/2 and the 40-day moving average around $5.42, as well as $4.97 1/2, a five-month low hit Sept. 10.

Soy complex futures are lower, led by declines of over 2% in soyoil; soybeans are down 17 to 18 cents and soymeal are down $2.20 to $2.30.

• November soybeans fell to the lowest price in nearly three months amid broad commodity market selloff that sent crude oil futures down over 1%.
• Concern over exports is also weighing on the soy complex after China recently booked soybean cargoes from Brazil. U.S. shipments have shrunk this month with some grain terminals at the U.S. Gulf not expected to be fully operational for several weeks at the earliest due to Hurricane Ida damage.
• Soybeans inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 16 totaled 275,169 MT, up from an upwardly revised 193,429 MT the previous week but well under the 1.39 MMT shipped at this time last year, USDA reported.
• November soybeans fell under the 200-day moving average and dropped as low as $12.62, the lowest intraday price since $12.59 3/4 on June 25.

HRW wheat futures are leading the wheat complex lower with losses of 10 to 11 cents. SRW wheat futures are 6 to 9 cents lower and spring wheat futures are posting losses of 5 to 6 cents.

• Wheat futures fell in sympathy with losses in other commodity markets.
• Dry conditions in the U.S. Plains as winter wheat planting expands may be a growing concern. Dryness “could be quite persistent, resulting in soil moisture depletion… [and] poor unirrigated winter crop emergence,” World Weather Inc. said in a report.
• Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in early October, free on board, ended last week at $301 per MT, a $1 gain from the week prior and the 10th consecutive weekly increase, ag consultancy IKAR reported.
• Wheat inspected for export during the week ended Sept. 16 totaled 563,390 MT, down from 567,438 MT the previous week, USDA reported. Trade expectations ranged from 350,000 to 600,000 MT.
• USDA will update winter wheat planting progress this afternoon. The crop was 12% seeded as of Sept. 12, up from 5% the previous week.
• December SRW wheat overnight fell as low as $6.95 3/4, the lowest intraday price since $6.95 1/4 on Sept. 15. The contract gained 2.9% last week.

Live cattle are mostly slightly lower and feeder cattle are choppy.

• Cattle futures remained under pressure from an extended decline in wholesale beef prices. Futures likely need to see the wholesale market stabilize before seeing sustained buying.
• Choice cutout values ended last week at an average of $314.47, down 3.9% for the week, USDA data showed. The price fell for the 15th consecutive day and hit the lowest price since Aug. 11.
• Last week’s cash action was generally steady with the lower end of cash trade the week prior. Live steers averaged $123.90 Friday, down from $124.73 a week earlier.
• Feedlot inventories shrank during the first half of this year, and USDA’s next monthly Cattle on Feed Report Sept. 24 will indicate whether that trend continued in August.

Lean hog futures are slightly lower.

• Nearly hog futures are in a modest corrective setback after surging 4% last week on signs wholesale pork prices may have bottomed.
• Cash markets will be key to market direction this week as traders watch for any indications of stabilizing in the CME Lean Hog Index, which has been on an uninterrupted decline since early August.
• The index late last week fell to $94.45, the lowest since March 23, though still nearly $9 above nearby futures.
• Pork carcass cutout values ended last week at $105.41, up 31 cents on the week.
• USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Sept. 24 is expected to reflect further shrinkage of the U.S. herd.
• Chart levels to watch in October futures include $79.775, the six-month low reached last week, and last week’s high at $85.975.