10:30 a.m. Market Snapshot | Oct. 8, 2021

Corn futures are slightly higher at midsession but still down for the week.

• Futures gained spillover support from rallying crude oil, which reached a seven-year high near $80.11 a barrel, though pressure from the accelerating harvest is limiting upside.
• USDA’s Oct. 12 Crop Production report is expected to show slight reductions in the agency’s projections of the U.S. corn harvest and average yield.
• USDA is expected to trim its estimate of the U.S. corn harvest by about 0.2%, to 14.973 billion bu., based on a Reuters survey of analysts. The average U.S. yield is expected to be cut 0.2% to 176 bu. per acre.
• Rain expected across much of the Midwest over the coming week may impede corn harvest, which had been running ahead of schedule amid dry and warmer than usual conditions.
• The Midwest “will see a wetter weather pattern through next Friday and fieldwork will be slowed by the rain,” World Weather Inc. said today. “But warm and dry soils in many areas should allow fields to dry out quickly enough for harvesting to resume between rounds of rain.”
• December corn futures overnight rose as high as $5.38 3/4, slightly under last week’s close at $5.41 1/2. Chart levels to watch include $5.27 1/2, this week’s low, and the 50-day moving average around $5.39.

Soybeans are up 8 to 10 cents. Soyoil is 60 to 70 points firmer, while soymeal is slightly higher in most contracts.

• November soybeans climbed to the highest price in over a week and are poised for the first weekly gain in the past six, boosted by export hopes and strength in vegetable oil markets. December soybean oil neared a two-month high.
• Based on the Reuters survey, USDA is expected to increase its estimate of the U.S. soybean harvest by 0.9%, to 4.415 billion bu., while the average yield is expected to rise 1.0%, to 51.1 bu. per acre.
• The U.S. soybean harvest, 34% completed at the start of this week, was ahead of schedule, but rainfall expected next week may keep many farmers out of their fields.
• “Soybean quality declines will also be a concern in the wetter areas of the western and central Midwest where the greatest rain will fall,” World Weather said. “But drier weather after midweek … should be sufficient to protect crops from much, if any, damage.”
• November soybeans rose as high as $12.62 1/2 overnight and up from last week’s close at $12.46 1/2. Chart levels to watch include this week’s low at $12.31, a six-month low, and the 20-day moving average around $12.70 1/2.

Wheat futures are higher, led by gains in spring wheat.

• HRW and SRW futures climbed overnight but still may post the contracts’ first weekly declines in the past four weeks. December spring wheat posted a contract high for the third straight day.
• Wheat prices remain supported by tight global supplies and concern dryness in the U.S. plains will stunt the newly-seeded winter crop.
• Soil moisture “remains short to very short in much of hard red winter wheat country, though there are several areas in Texas, central Oklahoma, and the eastern half of Kansas with marginally adequate topsoil moisture,” World Weather said today.
• The French farm office reported 4% of the winter soft wheat crop had been seeded as of Oct. 4, one point behind last year at this time.
• December SRW futures earlier rose as high as $7.46 1/2, down from last week’s close at $7.55 1/4. December HRW futures rose as high as $7.47 3/4, down from last week’s close at $7.59 1/2.

Live cattle futures are mixed, with nearby contracts climbing earlier to a one-month high. Feeder cattle are posting light gains.

• Cattle futures extended yesterday’s rally and are heading for a sharp gain on the week thanks to slightly firmer cash markets and strong exports.
• Slaughter-ready steers in top feedlot areas yesterday averaged $122.96, up from an average of $122.56 last week, USDA reported.
• Earlier this week, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said the U.S. exported 132,577 MT of beef during August, up 21% from the same month in 2020. August shipments were valued at a record $1.04 billion, up 55%, the Export Federation said, citing USDA data.
• While exports have been strong, wholesale beef continues to drop, raising concern over domestic retail demand. Choice boxed beef fell $1.32 yesterday to an average of $285.30, the lowest since $281.00 on Aug. 2.
• Cattle slaughter so far this week totaled 483,000 head, up 2.1% from the same period last week and up 2.3% from the same period a year ago, USDA reported.
• December live cattle rose as high as $130.60, the highest intraday price since $131.825 on Sept. 7, and are up from $125.20 at the end of last week. Chart levels to watch include the 40-day average just above today’s high and the 100-day moving average around $131.00.

Lean hog futures are slightly higher.

• Hog futures extended yesterday’s rebound but remain down sharply on the week amid eroding cash market fundamentals.
• Carcass cutout values fell 60 cents yesterday to an average of $112.26, down about 1.0% from $113.39 at the end of last week. Movement totaled 367 loads.
• National direct average carcasses rose 17 cents yesterday to an average of $70.18, while the latest CME lean hog index fell 92 cents to $92.59, near a six-month low reached in late September.
• Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 1.896 million head of hogs so far this week, up 0.5% from the same period a week ago, but down 2.9% from the corresponding period in 2020.
• December lean hogs rose as high as $82.85 earlier today but are still down from $85.175 at the end of last week. Chart levels to watch include this week’s low at $80.55 and the 100-day moving average around $81.45.