10:30 a.m. Market Snapshot | Oct. 14, 2021

( )

Corn futures are steady to up 1 cent and trading in narrow ranges at midsession.

  • Futures are up in a modest corrective bounce from yesterday’s drop to one-month lows. Traders await tomorrow’s USDA weekly export sales report, delayed a day due to the government holiday Oct. 11.
  • The market’s technical and fundamental posture has turned increasingly bearish in the wake of USDA’s unexpected hike to its yield and production estimates earlier this week.
  • USDA raised its U.S. corn harvest forecast by 0.2% to 15.019 billion bu., contrary to widespread expectations for a small cut. The projected crop would be the second largest crop on record.
  • December corn yesterday closed below its 200-day moving average, currently about $5.18 3/4 a bushel, for the first time in over a year.
  • Chart levels to watch include yesterday’s low at $5.06 3/4 and $4.97 1/2, a five-month low posted Sept. 10.

Soy complex futures are mostly higher, with soybeans up 1 to 2 cents.

  • Soybeans are up in a small correction following yesterday’s tumble to 6 1/2-month lows, with reports of recent foreign purchases also providing a boost.
  • USDA earlier today reported a daily sale of 132,000 metric tons (MT) of soybeans for delivery to “unknown destinations” during the 2021-22 marketing year.
  • The USDA report follows yesterday’s announcement of a sale of 330,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 198,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, all for the 2021-22 marketing year. Prior to yesterday, USDA hadn’t announced a Chinese soybean purchase since Sept. 27.
  • U.S. soybean crushings likely fell to a three-month low in September, according to a Reuters survey of analysts ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report tomorrow. NOPA members crushed an estimated 155.072 million bushels last month.
  • Argentina’s 2021-22 soybean plantings are expected to fall 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres) to 17.0 million hectares (42.0 million acres), the USDA attaché in the country estimated. The attaché estimated production at 49.7 MMT, 1.3 MMT under USDA’s official estimate.
  • November soybeans rose as high as $12.02 1/4 overnight, after sinking yesterday to $11.95 1/4, the lowest closing price since $11.86 1/4 on March 30. Chart levels to watch include yesterday’s low at $11.84 1/2 and the 10-day moving average at $12.28 3/4.

Wheat futures 5 to 12 cents higher, with spring wheat leading gains.

  • Wheat futures rose in a technical rebound from losses yesterday and longer-term concern over tight global supplies.
  • Persistent dryness in the U.S. Plains remains a concern for recently-seeded winter wheat, though some rain relief may be ahead.
  • Rain over the next week is “not expected to be enough to cause any notable increase in soil moisture or fieldwork delays,” World Weather Inc. said today. “Greater precipitation is likely in the second week of the outlook which will be timely after the first week’s dryness.”
  • China raised the minimum purchase price for wheat in 2022 to 2,300 yuan ($357) per metric ton, a 1.8% increase from 2021’s minimum of 2,260 yuan ($351) per metric ton and the first increase since 2014.
  • December SRW futures rose as high as $7.29 1/2, after tumbling 15 1/4 cents yesterday to $7.18 3/4, the contract’s lowest closing price so far this month. Chart levels to watch include yesterday’s intraday low at $7.12 3/4 and the 100-day moving average around $7.03 1/2.

Live cattle futures are slightly higher and feeders are mixed.

  • Live cattle gained support from a slightly firmer tone in cash markets this week, though weak wholesale beef prices likely will limit price upside.
  • Cash cattle trade picked up at $124 across the Midwest and Plains at midweek, steady with the upper end of last week’s trade. Live steers in five top feedlot areas averaged $123.63, up from last week’s $122.96 average.
  • Choice cutout values fell $1.05 yesterday to $280.02, the lowest daily price since $278.46 on July 30. Cutout values have decline much of the past two months amid soft retail demand.
  • Cattle slaughter so far this week totaled 361,000 head, down 2,000 head from the same period last week and even with the same period in 2020, USDA reported.
  • Chart levels to watch in December live cattle include the 40-day moving average around $130.25 and yesterday’s low at $128.55.

Lean hog futures are lower and near three-week lows.

  • Futures extended yesterday’s slide on bearish chart patterns and soft cash market fundamentals. Tight longer-term animal supplies remain a supportive factor.
  • Pork carcass cutout values rose $2.47 yesterday to an average of $104.85, on movement of about 418 loads, USDA reported. The latest CME lean hog index dropped to $89.73, the lowest since mid-March.
  • Hog slaughter so far this week totaled 1.432 million head, up 1.0% from the same period last week but down 1.8% from the same period in 2020.
  • December lean hogs fell as low as $77.60, matching yesterday’s low, which is slightly under the 200-day moving average around $78.00. The top of the Sept. 27 chart gap is at $77.20.
 

Latest News

H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations
H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations

Nearly every category topped the average pre-report estimates.

After the Bell | March 28, 2024
After the Bell | March 28, 2024

After the Bell | March 28, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn
PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn

Corn planting intentions and March 1 stocks came in lower than expected.

Report Snapshot: USDA shows lighter-than-expected corn acres and stocks
Report Snapshot: USDA shows lighter-than-expected corn acres and stocks

USDA reported corn acres of 90.036 million acres for 2024 and March 1 stocks of 8.347 billion bu., both well below trade estimates. Soybean acres were slightly lower than expectations, while stocks were higher.