10:30 a.m. Market Snapshot | Oct. 13, 2021

Corn futures are down 14 to 15 cents at midsession and near one-month lows.

Futures extended yesterday’s price weakness after USDA surprised traders with unexpected increases to harvest and yield estimates. Selling today expanded after December futures broke under the 200-day moving average.
Harvest pressure is also increasing. USDA yesterday reported 41% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Oct. 10, up from 29% a week earlier and above the average for the previous five years of 31%.
Earlier today, USDA reported daily sales of 161,544 metric tons (MT) of corn for delivery to “unknown destinations.”
December futures are closing in on the $5.00 level, dropping as low as $5.07 a bushel. Chart levels to watch include $4.97 1/2, a spike low after USDA’s previous Crop Production report on Sept. 10

Soy complex futures are lower, led by declines of 9 to 10 cents in soybeans and over $3.00 in soymeal.

November soybeans extended yesterday’s tumble to the lowest levels since March, driven by USDA’s higher than expected production forecast.
USDA raised its estimate for the U.S. soybean crop to a record 4.448 billion bu., above trade expectations for 4.415 billion bu. and up from 4.374 billion bu. USDA estimated in September.
Harvest pressure is also weighing on soybean futures. USDA yesterday reported farmers harvested 49% of the soybean crop as of Oct. 10, up from 34% a week earlier and above the five-year average of 40%.
In addition to the corn sale, USDA reported daily sales 330,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 198,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, all for the 2021-22 marketing year.
China imported 6.88 MMT of soybeans during September, a 30% drop from year-ago and a 28% decline from August, according to customs data. Demand has faded amid a drop in demand from hog producers and weak crush margins.
November soybeans fell as low as $11.84 1/2, the lowest intraday price since $11.84 on March 31, and the lowest for a nearby contract since December 2020.

Wheat futures are lower, led by declines of 18 to 19 cents in SRW and HRW futures.

Wheat futures are taking spillover pressure from selloffs in corn and soybean futures, pushing winter wheat near two-week lows.
Yesterday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report underscored tightening domestic and global supplies. USDA cut its projected 2021-22 U.S. ending stocks estimate by 5.7% to 585 million bu., while estimated 2021-22 global ending stocks were cut 2.1% to 277.18 MMT, a five-year low.
USDA also reported 60% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Oct. 10, up from 47% a week earlier and matching the five-year average.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are slightly to moderately lower.

Cattle futures remain under pressure from weak wholesale beef prices, even though cash cattle have firmed slightly over the past week.
Choice cutout values fell 27 cents yesterday to an average of $280.85, the lowest daily price since $278.46 on July 30.
Cutout values have been in a nearly uninterrupted slide since late August, suggesting weak retail demand as consumers balk at high-priced beef. Boxed beef likely must bottom before futures can generate sustained buying.
In the cash markets, live slaughter-ready steers last week averaged $122.96, up 40 cents from the previous week and the first weekly increase in six. On cash markets, a few hundred head of sales at $124 were reported in Texas, steady with last week.
China imported 694,000 MT of meat in September, a 17% drop from year-ago and an 8% decline from August, according to customs data. That was the lowest import tally since February 2020.
Chart levels to watch in December live cattle include the 10-, 20- and 200-day moving averages, all around or slightly above $128.00, and just under yesterday’s low at $129.10.

Lean hog futures are slightly lower.

Futures extended yesterday’s slide to two-week lows on eroding chart patterns and soft cash market fundamentals, though a longer-term outlook for tighter animal supplies may limit declines.
Pork carcass cutout values fell $5.63 to $102.38, the lowest daily price since $101.12 on Sept. 13 and led by a plunge of over $10 in hams. Movement totaled about 434 loads.
The CME lean hog index is at $90.94, down 66 cents on the day and the lowest level since mid-March.
December lean hogs fell as low as $77.60, the lowest intraday price $75.65 on Sept. 24.

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