10:30 a.m. Market Snapshot | Oct. 12, 2021

Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midsession and near two-week lows.

• USDA, in its Crop Production report today, is expected to cut is U.S. corn crop estimate by about 0.2%, to 14.973 billion bu., based on a Reuters survey of analysts. The average U.S. yield is expected to be cut 0.2% to 176 bu. per acre.
• Separately, USDA probably will show a large jump in harvest progress over the past week. As of Oct. 2, 29% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested, above the average for the previous five years of 22%.
• Early today, USDA reported a daily sale of 165,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2021-22 marketing year.
• The U.S. inspected 746,200 MT of corn for export the week ending Oct. 7, in line with expectations but down from the week prior.
• China lowered its 2021-22 corn crop estimate by 850,000 MT, or 0.3%, to 271 MMT in its monthly China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, reflecting heavy rains since September in northern China that delayed harvest and compromised crop quality.
• December corn futures fell as low as $5.25 1/2 a bushel, the lowest intraday price since $5.24 on Sept. 27. Chart levels to watch include the 200-day moving average around $5.18.

Soy complex futures are mostly lower, led by declines of 11 to 12 cents in soybeans.

• USDA is expected to increase its estimate of the U.S. soybean harvest by 0.9%, to 4.415 billion bu., which would be the second largest crop on record.
• The average U.S. yield is expected to rise 1.0% to 51.1 bu. per acre.
• Rain in the Midwest this week will slow harvest that had been running ahead of schedule. As of Oct. 3, the crop was 34% harvested, compared to the five-year average of 26%.
• Export inspections of soybeans surged to 1.612 MMT, handily topping expectations and nearly double the previous week’s tally.
• November soybeans have fallen as low as $12.14 today, the lowest intraday price since $11.84 March 31, as the market technical standing turns increasingly bearish. The psychologically important $12.00 level appears to be the next downside target.

SRW wheat futures are 3 to 4 cents lower, HRW wheat is mixed and spring wheat is steady to 2 cents higher.

• USDA, in its Supply and Demand update today, is expected to lower projected wheat supplies at the end of the 2021-22 marketing year by about 6.3% to 576 million bu., down from USDA’s current estimate of 615 million bu.
• USDA is also expected to reduce its world wheat ending stocks forecast by about 0.8%, to 280.82 MMT.
• Separately, USDA’s crop progress report later today likely will show well over half of winter wheat planting complete. As of Oct. 3, the crop was 47% planted.
• Today’s weekly export inspections report showed 435,173 MT of wheat were inspected for shipment the first week of October, down more than 180,000 MT from the previous week but in line with expectations.
• Russian wheat export prices rose for the 13th week in a row, to $310 per MT, according to the IKAR consultancy.
• France’s farm ministry lowered its soft wheat crop estimate by 900,000 MT, or 2.6%, to 35.2 MMT, citing untimely rain. That would still be 21% jump from last year’s crop.
• December SRW wheat fell as low as $7.26, the lowest intraday price since Oct. 1.

Live cattle are slightly lower in most contracts. Feeder cattle are posting slight to moderate gains in all but the front month.

• Futures remained weighed down by an ongoing slump in wholesale beef, though cash cattle have firmed.
• Live slaughter-ready steers last week averaged $122.96, up 40 cents from the previous week and the first weekly increase in six.
• Feeder steers at traded $2 to $4 higher yesterday amid moderate to good demand at the first day of an Oklahoma City auction.
• But boxed beef prices must arrest a weeks-long slide before futures generate sustained buying. Choice boxed beef values fell $2.15 yesterday to $281.12, the lowest since $281.00 on Aug. 2.
• Chart levels to watch in December live cattle include last week’s high at $130.60, which is just under the 40-day moving average around $130.70, along with the 20-day moving average around $128.10.

Lean hog futures are lower, with December lean hogs falling to the lowest price in over two weeks.

• Futures are under followthrough pressure from a recent technical breakdown on the daily chart, as well as mixed signals from the cash markets.
• Carcasses on national direct markets early yesterday averaged $68.37, down 89 cents from Friday.
• The CME lean hog index is at $91.60 today, down another 35 cents and near a six-month low of $91.47 reached in late September.
• Pork cutout values rose $1.02 yesterday to $108.01.
• December lean hogs have fallen as low as $78.50, the lowest intraday price since $75.65 on Sept. 24. The contract is nearing a test of the 200-day moving average near $77.96.