10:30 a.m. Market Snapshot | July 26, 2021

Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents lower at midsession, with the December contract near a two-week low.

• Futures fell overnight after rain fell in some areas of the Midwest over the weekend, bolstering harvest prospects as the crop moves through its critical pollination phase.
• Dryness in the western northwestern Corn Belt remains a concern. Weekend heat increased stress in many of the drier areas of the west, while beneficial rain reached eastern South Dakota, central and northern Wisconsin, eastern Kansas and Ohio, reports World Weather Inc.
• USDA’s weekly export inspections report today was within expectations for corn. Corn inspected for export during the week ended July 22 totaled 1.037 million metric tons (MMT), down from an upwardly revised 1.077 MMT the previous week.
• USDA’s weekly crop progress report later today will offer guidance on whether rains earlier this month improved the harvest outlook and the extent to which the corn crop has moved through pollination. A week ago, USDA rated 65% of the corn crop “good” to “excellent” as of July 18.
• December futures overnight fell under the 100-day moving average around $5.36 and after today’s open fell as low as $5.32 1/4, the lowest intraday price since $5.27 1/2 on July 13. Chart levels to watch include the July intraday low at $5.07 and last week’s high at $5.73.
• Speculators boosted bets for higher corn futures earlier in July as prices rallied, based on data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. For the week ended July 20, money managers raised their net long to 223,302 futures and options contracts from 208,799 a week earlier, according to a CFTC report.

Soybean are 6 to 7 cents lower. Soybean meal futures are also lower, with December meal hitting a one-month low; soyoil futures are roughly 30 to 40 points higher.

• Soybeans are under pressure following weekend rains in some areas of the Midwest and a less-threatening weather outlook into early August, typically when the crop reaches key reproductive phases.
• “Heat is still expected for a few days this week in the western Corn Belt and some crops should be stressed by the heat,” World Weather said in a report today, “But outside of the northwest, soil moisture should be high enough to keep temperatures from becoming excessively hot and that should prevent serious crop stress.”
• USDA’s weekly export inspections report today was within expectations for soybeans. Soybeans inspected for export during the week ended July 22 totaled 241,897 MT, up from 143,934 MT the previous week.
• Traders will scan USDA’s weekly crop progress report later today for indications whether rains earlier this month improved the harvest outlook and how much of soybean crop has reached key reproductive phases, such as pod-setting
• November soybeans fell as low as $13.32 overnight, the lowest intraday price since $13.27 on July 12, after falling nearly 3% last week, the second weekly decline in the past three. Chart levels to watch include the 100-day moving average around $13.27 and last week’s high, $14.18.
• Speculators also scaled up bullish bets in soybeans earlier this month. Money managers added more than 13,000 soybean futures and options contracts, boosting their net long to 95,874 contracts, in the week ended July 20. That market their most bullish view since mid-June and was largely the result of new longs, recent CFTC data showed.

Wheat futures are mostly 5 to 10 cents lower, with SRW near a two-week low.

• Wheat futures are under pressure as the U.S. winter harvest adds fresh supplies amid sluggish export demand. Spring wheat has extended last week’s decline amid technical weakness and beliefs the market may have put in a top
• Wheat inspected for export during the week ended July 22 totaled 477,964 MT, down from an upwardly revised 532,898 the previous week. Expectations ranged from 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
• USDA’s crop progress report later today is expected to show the winter harvest near completion. As of July 18, the harvest was 73% complete, one percentage point below the five-year average and in-line with year-ago.
• For spring wheat, USDA a week ago reported just 11% of the crop in “good” to “excellent” condition, with 63% of the crop rated “poor” or “very poor.”
• September SRW futures overnight fell as low as $6.65 1/2, the lowest intraday price since $6.51 1/4 on July 15. Chart levels to watch include the 200-day moving average around $6.43 and last week’s high as $7.18.

Cattle futures are higher at midsession, led by a surge to contract highs in feeder cattle.

• Live cattle futures gained a boost from lower-than-expected numbers in USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday, while weakness in corn prices lifted feeder futures.
• USDA estimated 11.29 million head on feed as of July 1, down 1.3% from the same date a year earlier. Cattle placed in feedlots in June totaled 1.67 million head, down 7.1% from the same month in 2020. Placement were expected to have declined closer to 4.1%. The Cattle Inventory Report showed the U.S. beef cow inventory down 2% versus last year.
• Boxed beef values strengthened the latter half of last week, but the Choice cutout value still ending last week at $266.63, down 0.5% from a week earlier.
• On cash markets, live steers in top U.S. feedlot regions Friday averaged $120.65, down from $122.80 a week earlier, according to USDA. Last week’s slaughter was an estimated 652,000 head, down 1,000 from the previous week but up 1.9% from the same week a year ago.
• Chart levels to watch in August live cattle include $122.60, the intraday high July 14, the 100-day moving average around $120 and last week low of $119.20.
• August feeder cattle rose as high as $163.15, a contract high and the highest for a nearby contract since early 2016.

Lean hog futures are modestly lower.

• Hog futures are seeing a small setback following last week’s gains, which were driven by stronger wholesale pork markets and strengthening technicals.
• While carcasses on national direct markets fell Friday to $104.59, down 2.5% from a week earlier, carcass cutout values ended last week at $122.37, up 2% from a week earlier and the highest since June 17.
• Last week’s slaughter was an estimated 2.33 million head, up 2.3% from the previous week but down 9.5% from the same week a year earlier.
• On Friday, August lean hogs rose 70 cents to $107.35, the contract’s highest closing price since $111.70 on June 16. Chart levels to watch include last week’s high at $107.55 and the 40-day moving average around $108.
• August lean hog futures remain at a discount to the CME lean hog index, which was at $112.21 for the two days ending July 22, down 4 cents from the previous price.