Evening Report | Sept. 16, 2021
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Warm, dry outlook concerning for winter wheat producers… Warm weather is likely to continue across most of the Midwest and Plains during October, according to updated weather maps from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The precipitation outlook for next month is more up in the air, with CPC giving above-normal odds for wet weather in Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Indiana, Ohio and the Southeast. The weather watcher says there are equal chances for normal, below-normal and above-normal precip across the remainder of the Midwest and Northern Plains.
There are elevated odds for below-normal precipitation from Texas to southern Nebraska, which paired with the warm outlook would accelerate the drying trend for winter wheat country. Planting of the crop is just getting started.
Unseasonable warmth shifts to the south during the October to December timeframe, with equal chances for normal, above-normal and below-normal temperatures over the 90-day stretch from the Pacific Northwest to Wisconsin and southward to northwest Nebraska and Iowa. But the rest of the country faces elevated odds for above-normal temperatures.
The precipitation forecast for the final quarter of the year continues to favor warmer-than-usual conditions for southern areas of the country and northward into South Dakota. There are elevated chances for wet conditions in northern areas of the far eastern Corn Belt. But CPC was noncommittal regarding precipitation odds for the rest of the Midwest. Find the 30- and 90-day forecast maps here.
Dryness expands in southern and eastern areas of the Midwest as growing season wanes… Drought spread across the Central and Southern Plains over the past week, as well as in southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt, according to U.S. Drought Monitor for the week ended Sept. 14. Today’s Drought Summary notes, “Open weather across much of the country favored summer crop maturation and fieldwork, including harvest efforts and winter wheat planting.”
Hurricane Nicholas brought heavy rain and gusty winds to the middle and upper Texas coast, with locally heavy showers also dotting the lower Southeast. Late in the reporting period, some showers and thunderstorms also eased drought in the Upper Great Lakes region. But other areas of the Midwest and Plains remained fairly dry and above-normal temperatures dominated the western half of the country.
Consequently, short-term dryness is expanding in southern and eastern areas of the Midwest. Long-term dryness persists in the upper Midwest, despite the region catching some showers. See related maps.
CHS says Myrtle Grove recovery timeline remains uncertain… CHS Inc. said it expects its Myrtle Grove, Louisiana grain export terminal to be operational by the height of the U.S. corn and soy harvest, but the exact recovery timeline remains uncertain. The facility remains without power and repair crews are relying on an onsite generator.
Grain union boosts Russian wheat crop estimate on improving yields… The Russian Grain Union now estimates the country’s grain crop at 119.5 MMT, a 1.5-MMT increase from its previous forecast. The group cited a narrowing of the yield gap compared to last year’s results as September progressed. For wheat, specifically, the union raised its crop estimate from 76 MMT to a range of 78.0 MMT to 78.5 MMT. The bigger crop helped boost the grain union’s 2021-22 export forecast to 35.5 MMT to 36.0 MMT, which compares to its previous outlook of 34 MMT.
On the other hand, ag consultancy IKAR today lowered its Russian wheat production forecast to a range of 74 MMT to 75 MMT. That compares to a crop estimate of 77 MMT from the consultancy in August.
Additional meetings scheduled at OMB on RFS proposed levels… Three additional meetings have now been scheduled at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on the proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) levels from EPA. Meetings that have been added to the schedule include one today with BTR Energy, a technology company based in Washington, D.C., that is listed as providing a “data-driven platform” for businesses in the agricultural, electric transportation and power industries to “benefit from participation in low carbon transportation programs.” A meeting is currently on the schedule for Sept. 23 with CITGO Petroleum and another Oct. 4 with the Northwest Ohio Building Trades Council. If all the meetings take place before OMB completes its review, it suggests that it will be into October before RFS levels are published. Our sources indicate it will be published no later than Sept. 27.
EPA forwards proposed rule on methane emissions in oil and gas sector to OMB for review as U.S., EU push Global Methane Pledge… EPA has forwarded to OMB a proposed rule on methane emissions from existing operations in the oil and gas sector. The proposed rule comes from the executive order signed by President Joe Biden Jan. 20, which included instructions to EPA to consider proposing new regulations to establish emissions guidelines on methane from existing oil and gas operations, including the exploration and production, transmission, processing, and storage segments.
This comes in the wake of reports this week that the Biden administration and the European Union (EU) have reached agreement on a Global Methane Pledge, an effort to reduce human-caused emissions of the greenhouse gas (GHG) by 30% by 2030 compared with 2020 levels. Reports also indicate the U.S./EU pledge on methane emissions will not ask people to reduce their consumption of red meat even as the EU’s own methane strategy notes that a shift in diets can “contribute significantly” to lowering methane emissions. Instead, the global pledge is expected to focus on shifting animal diets to lower their emissions of methane and technology to lower methane emissions.
Biden on Friday is expected to invite 17 major economies to join the effort.
USDA extends PLIP application deadline, clarifies layer hen flocks don’t qualify… USDA has pushed back the deadline for livestock and poultry producers to apply for the Pandemic Livestock Indemnity Program (PLIP) from the original deadline of Sept. 17, 2021 to Oct. 12, 2021. The program provides aid to producers who suffered losses during the pandemic due to insufficient access to processing and for the cost of depopulation and disposal of animals.
Also, USDA determined layer hen flocks that were depopulated during the Covid-19 pandemic due to a lack of an egg market do not qualify for PLIP. USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) said “the [Consolidated Appropriations] act does not authorize PLIP because of the lack of market of a byproduct of eligible livestock because of Covid-19.”
ASF detected in another region of Brandenburg, Germany… A second case of African swine fever (ASF) was confirmed in a wild boar in the Uckermark region of the Germany’s state of Brandenburg. The state has confirmed 1,670 ASF cases since the disease was first detected in September 2020, but the Uckermark region is to the north of where these cases have been concentrated. Another 456 cases of ASF have been detected in wild boar in the state of Saxony.
Germany last week said it was optimistic ASF is being contained in the eastern states of Brandenburg and Saxony along the Polish border. The latest case in Uckermark was near the Polish border.
