Evening Report | June 23, 2021

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

Livestock producers: Extend soymeal, corn coverage… Soymeal futures continue to fall and are at what we consider strong value levels. As a result, we advise livestock producers cover another 25% of August and September soymeal needs in the cash market, pushing that coverage to 75% for both months. We also advise covering 25% of fourth-quarter needs in the cash market. Livestock producers should also cover 50% of August and September corn-for-needs in the cash market. You should already have all corn-for-feed and soybean meal needs for July covered in cash.

FBN calling for soybean plantings to drop more than 1 million acres vs. March intentions… Based on a survey of around 2,000 U.S. farmers, Farmers Business Network (FBN) predicts corn plantings will rise to 92.9 million acres from the 91.1 million acres USDA estimated in March. A surge in corn futures prices during the spring helped lift corn planting intentions, Kevin McNew, FBN’s chief economist, told Bloomberg in an interview.

While corn prices rallied 22% from March 31 to June 1, soybean prices dipped 3%. Consequently, FBN says its survey work signals soybean planted acreage is likely to fall from the 87.6 million USDA estimated in March to 86.5 million acres.

Our survey this month also pointed to higher corn planted acres of 93.6 million, but also higher soybean plantings of 88.7 million acres.

Spring wheat plantings will likely edge 200,000 acres higher versus March intentions to 11.9 million acres, FBN forecasts. Our survey signaled producers likely planted 11.3 million acres to other spring wheat this year.

USDA will update its planted acreage forecasts on June 30.

Rising grain crop forecasts for the Black Sea region… Ag market research firm SovEcon raised its Russian wheat crop forecast by 2.2 MMT to 84.6 MMT, citing better weather, especially in the South and Center regions, and an increase in spring wheat planted area versus initial expectations. Yields in Russia’s top producing South are expected to be near record-highs. This more than offset further worsening drought in eastern areas of the Volga Valley, the Urals and Siberia, according to SovEcon.

Interfax news agency reports Russia’s ag ministry maintained its 127.4 MMT grain crop forecast for the country, noting the ministry will wait for initial harvest results before making any adjustments.

SovEcon also raised its corn crop estimate for Ukraine by 1.5 MMT, pushing it to 38.3 MMT. The firm raised its planted area forecast, with acreage now expected to fall just short of the record levels, and said crop conditions are good in all but northern areas of the country. Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, comments that Ukraine’s corn crop is already forecast at a record high, “but we feel that estimates could go substantially higher even with limited weather cooperation. Ukraine’s corn will be a very serious threat to the U.S. in the Chinese market next season.” Ukraine was an aggressive exporter of corn to China in 2020-21 as well.

Ukraine’s wheat crop is likely to come in at 29.2 MMT, according to SovEcon, up 300,000 MT from its forecast last month. Again, SovEcon cited good crop conditions, particularly in the South, for the increase.

Hogs & Pigs Report expected to show U.S. hog herd down 2.3% from year-ago… On average, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect USDA will report the June 1 hog herd around 75.572 million head, down 2.3% from year-ago. The breeding herd is expected to be down 1.1% from year-ago, with marketings down 2.4%. Market weight categories are all expected to be down from year-ago, with the biggest declines in the heavier weight categories. The wide range of expectations regarding pigs per litter reflects uncertainty stemming from struggles with PRRS over the winter and spring. Also of note, high feed costs are expected to limit farrowings and farrowing intentions through summer. The report will be released at 2:00 p.m. CT Thursday. We’ll have coverage of the data in “Evening Report.”

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