Evening Report | August 26, 2022

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Pro Farmer national corn and soybean crop estimates:

Corn: 13.759 billion bu.; Average yield of 168.1 bu. per acre

Corn +/- 1% = 13.897 billion bu. to 13.621 billion bu.; 169.8 bu. to 166.4 per acre

Soybeans: 4.535 billion bu.; Average yield of 51.7 bu. per acre

Soybeans +/- 2% = 4.625 billion bu. to 4.444 billion bu.; 52.7 bu. to 50.7 bu. per acre

The national estimates above reflect Pro Farmer’s view on production and yields. They take into account data gathered during Crop Tour and other factors like crop maturity, historical differences in Tour data versus USDA’s final yields, areas outside those sampled on Tour, etc. That’s why the state yield numbers below differ from the Crop Tour figures in the box above and on News page 2. We hope our corn yield and production estimates are too low, but that’s what the Crop Tour data indicated. Based on August FSA certified acreage data, we increased soybean acreage by 500,000 acres. We made no adjustment to corn acreage.

The following are Pro Farmer’s state by state corn yield estimates:

Iowa: 198 bu. per acre. Of all the states we sampled on Crop Tour, Iowa had the most variability. The state has plenty of exceptional corn and some areas will produce the best yields ever. But there are also a fair amount of average and sub-par areas in the state.

Illinois: 198 bu. per acre. Corn in Illinois was relatively consistent, but it lacked the “wow” factor required to produce a superior yield. In the really big yield years, the southern third of Illinois where we don’t sample doesn’t pull the average down. The crop in southern Illinois isn’t poor, but it won’t pull up the state average.

Nebraska: 164 bu. per acre. Dryland corn in the state is baked. Even the irrigated corn was hurt by the heat and dryness. Plus, the state had damage from hail and wind. There was just too much stress on the crop.

Minnesota: 191 bu. per acre. Central and southeastern areas of the state will carry the load this year. Other areas of the state have some issues.

Indiana: 177 bu. per acre. The Indiana corn crop had plenty of ears, but grain length was an issue. Many of the ears we pulled during Crop Tour had notable kernel abortion at the tip of ears.

Ohio: 175 bu. per acre. Ohio has a very good corn crop, but it won’t rival last year’s record yield. There’s far more variability in the state this year, especially on grain length, which will hold the crop back.

South Dakota: 122 bu. per acre. We sample from the southeastern portion of the state, which is normally the sweet spot. That isn’t the case this year. Areas north of where we sample will be better, but the state as a whole has issues.

The following are Pro Farmer’s state by state soybean yield estimates:

Iowa: 60 bu. per acre. Iowa’s soybean crop is disease and weed-free. Recent rains came in time to help much of the western Iowa crop, though this area will need September rainfall to finish strong. Some eastern areas of the state have enough moisture to finish.

Illinois: 64 bu. per acre. There is loads of potential with the Illinois soybean crop. And there is plenty of soil moisture to fill pods. Another rain would push much of the state’s soybean crop to the finish line.

Nebraska: 53 bu. per acre. Dryland soybeans are hanging on and a late-season rain could allow plants to maintain their pods. Nebraska farmers haven’t given up on irrigated soybeans and are actively pumping water.

Minnesota: 52 bu. per acre. Sudden Death Syndrome has reared its ugly head in some areas. The next one to two weeks will determine if disease pressure hurts yield potential. Moisture supplies are strong enough to finish the crop

Indiana: 59 bu. per acre. It rained ahead of and right after Crop Tour. The state has plentiful soybean moisture to finish strong. We found some fields that were still flowering, but there should be enough moisture to set and fill pods.

Ohio: 57 bu. per acre. Ohio has a slightly less mature crop than Indiana, but there’s plenty of moisture to get it to the finish line. Maturity of the crop is far enough along to finish given the typical extended season in the far eastern Belt.

South Dakota: 41 bu. per acre. There’s not much to say other than the crop has been severely damaged by heat and dryness. The worst areas have already given up and others aren’t far from that level. Even a late-season rain wouldn’t do much to benefit some of the crop at this point.

Corn futures end week at two-month high, soybeans also rally… December corn rose for the seventh time in the past eight sessions and posted a two-month closing high amid ongoing concern Midwest heat and dryness will hamper yield potential. December futures rose 14 1/4 cents to $6.64 1/4, a gain of 41 cents for the week and the contract’s highest closing price since $6.74 on June 24. November soybeans surged 30 cents to $14.61 1/4, a gain of 57 cents for the week and the contract’s highest close since July 29. December SRW wheat futures 16 1/4 cents to $8.05 1/4, up 34 1/4 cents for the week.

More inflation ‘pain’ ahead for Americans, Fed’s Powell says… Americans are headed for a painful period of slow economic growth and possibly rising joblessness as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight high inflation, U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell warned today in his bluntest language yet about what is in store for the world's biggest economy. In a speech kicking off the Jackson Hole central banking conference in Wyoming, Powell said the Fed will raise rates as high as needed to restrict growth and would keep them there “for some time” to bring down inflation that is running at more than three times the Fed's 2% goal, Reuters reported.

“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth,” Powell said. “While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

Zelenskiy: World must act to force Russian troops out of Ukraine nuclear plant… Ukraine's president urged the world to act much faster to force Russian troops to vacate Europe's largest nuclear power plant after the site was cut from electricity for hours in an incident he said risked an international radiation disaster. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian shelling Thursday sparked fires in the ash pits of a nearby coal power station that disconnected the Zaporozhzhia plant from the power grid. A Russian official said Ukraine was to blame. “The key thing is... international pressure is needed that will force the occupiers to immediately withdraw from the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,” he said in a video address Thursday evening.