Evening Report | August 25, 2022

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Day 4 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour continued today – results for Iowa and Minnesota will be released at 8 pm CT.

Preliminary Route Report with Brian Grete, eastern Crop Tour leader

What counties have you sampled from?

  • Iowa: Benton, Tama, Black Hawk, Bremer (Districts 6, 5, 3)

Corn yield range:

  • 165.4 bpa to 258 bpa

Corn yield average:

  • 205 bpa

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:

  • 734.4 pods to 2,620 pods

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:

  • 1,407 pods

Please share a few comments from your route:

We saw some really good corn… the best corn I’ve seen all week. The most noticeable thing was how heavy the ears were. The heavier the corn, the higher the test weight… so this corn should have really strong test weights. This area has had a really good growing season and it continues to get rains (including today). This is the garden spot. In terms of maturity, most of the corn is in early dent.

The soybeans were generally clean and the pod counts were strong. Even where we (sampled) good corn, we didn’t always get the best pod counts, but as a whole, the counts were strong. There’s not much disease or weed pressure. It’s a good-looking soybean crop with high yield potential. Now, it just needs some sun and right amount of warmth, and it probably has got enough to get to the “finish.” In terms of maturity, most of the beans are fully podded and filling.

 

Preliminary Route Report with Brent Judisch, western Tour consultant

What counties have you sampled from?

  • Minnesota: Martin, Watonwan, Blue Earth, Fairbault, Freeborn

Corn yield range:

  • 151 bpa to 236 bpa

Corn yield average:

  • 189 bpa

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:

  • 630 pods to 1,479 pods

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:

  • 1,049 pods

Please share a few comments from your route:

Overall, the corn and bean crops look good. We expected Minnesota to look pretty solid. Maturity is also good, with all corn denting. Some of the corn and beans may be a week or so behind normal but should not be at risk for frost. Soil moisture high, with a lot of muddy fields. Six of the 16 fields we’ve sampled so far had either green snap or lodging or both, which probably happened at least a month ago. In some of the soybean fields, we saw a little white mold and sudden-death, but nothing drastic.

 

Preliminary Route Report with Mark Bernard, eastern Tour consultant

What counties have you sampled from?

  • Iowa: Grundy, Butler, Floyd, Mitchell (Districts 5, 2)

Corn yield range:

  • 153 bpa to 241 bpa

Corn yield average:

  • 178 bpa

Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:

  • 374 pods to 1,268 pods

Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:

  • 872 pods

Please share a few comments from your route:

I was somewhat disappointed in both corn and beans, particularly because I thought today we’d get more into the 200-bu.-plus corn, but it took us till last sample to do that. Given the season we had, I would have expected better. There was just too much heat and it was too dry at critical development points of the crops. It was pretty dry in June around here. Also, we didn’t see the kernels around the ear I would have expected, and we had a lot of tip-back too. When these crops needed rain and moderate temperatures, it just didn’t get it.

It was the same thing with the beans. I was disappointed in the pod counts. When we had to “work” to get two samples of over 1,000 pods (in a 3’x3’ square), that’s really disappointing for Iowa. We started out with 1,034 in our first sample, then (pod counts) just tanked. We were in the triple-digits the next four samples. It wasn’t till we got toward the Minnesota border that we got back above 1,000. Maturity was good for both corn and soybeans, and neither should be in danger from any early frost.

Full results for Iowa and Minnesota will be released at 8 p.m. CT today. Pro Farmer’s U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates will be released Friday at 1:30 p.m. CT.

 

USDA retracts weekly export sales data following new system glitches… USDA retracted its weekly export sales numbers today, citing “challenges that affected the physical dissemination of the data as well as data quality.” The data is typically released Thursdays at 7:30 a.m. CT by USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service's (FAS), but the agency encountered problems during the launch of a new “Export Sales Reporting Maintenance System,” leading to confusion in grain markets. “During today’s launch, FAS encountered challenges that affected the physical dissemination of the data as well as data quality. As a result, the agency has taken the system offline and is retracting the weekly export sales information disseminated earlier today.” Click here for the full USDA statement

 

Corn futures post first decline in seven sessions on corrective pressure… December corn futures fell 7 1/4 cents to $6.50 on profit-taking and corrective selling following this week’s rally to two-month highs, as well as reports of strong yield prospects in Iowa and Minnesota from the final day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Rain over much of the Midwest today also encouraged sellers. November soybeans fell 25 3/4 cents to $14.31 1/4, while December SRW wheat fell 24 1/4 cents to $7.89.

 

More U.S. lawmakers set to arrive in Taiwan tonight… The third visit to the island this month by members of Congress includes Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who’s reportedly paying a three-day visit. Taiwan’s official Central News Agency reported that her group would meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Friday. Early this month, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip led to more than a week of aggressive Chinese military exercises.

 

For first time in six months, USDA does not increase food price inflation outlook… USDA held its forecasts for all food, food at home, and food away from home steady with its July outlooks, citing recent sharp price declines in corn, soybean and wheat. The pause came despite higher forecasts for some commodities. But food price inflation is still expected to be at its at highest level in more than 40 years. U.S. consumers are expected to see the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food to be up 8.5% to 9.5% in 2022, with food at home (grocery) prices seen up 10% to 11% and food away from home (restaurant) prices up 6.5% to 7.5%. Those marks are unchanged from the agency’s outlook in July and ends a string of six straight months where the agency increased their outlooks in those three categories. However, USDA did upwardly adjust price forecasts for several individual commodities or categories.

 

But upward changes to some individual grocery items continues... USDA now sees price inflation for meats, poultry and fish at 9.5% to 10.5% in 2022, up from 9% to 10% in June, with increases in the rate for pork to 8% to 9% (7% to 8% prior) and other meats at 13% to 14% (12% to 12% prior). Price forecasts for beef and veal, poultry, and fish and seafood were kept unchanged from the July outlook. Egg prices, one of the most-volatile items, are seen up 24.5% to 25.5% in 2022, up from 19.5% to 20.5% in the July forecast. Other upward adjustments came in fruits and vegetables, now seen up 7% to 8% (6.5% to 7.5% prior), sugar and sweets are expected to rise 8.5% to 9.5% (7.5% to 8.5% prior) and nonalcoholic beverages are expected up 8.5% to 9.5% (7.5% to 8.5% prior).

 

Vilsack details farmer debt relief, but definitions still being determined... The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) included provisions for debt relief for “distressed” borrowers totaling some $3.1 billion and another $2.2 billion for farmers who experienced discrimination. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack provided information on the programs but said the department will still have to define “distressed” borrowers and will also have to define what constitutes discrimination in USDA loan programs. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) has direct loans to around 100,000 borrowers and around 22% of those are delinquent or are have problems making payments. USDA could phase in the debt relief to try and provide help to those most in need, Vilsack said.

 

USDA won’t directly handle discrimination aspect of IRA… In an interview with CNN, Vilsack said USDA will not directly handle the discrimination portion of the Inflation Reduction Act, saying it would be run by outside entities that have handled claims in the past regarding discrimination. Vilsack said that would address concerns from applicants that their claims will not be handled fairly.

 

Debt relief linked to nationwide Covid status… Timing of the debt relief provisions would likely be tied to the expiration of the Covid health emergency declaration in October, as that also removes the moratorium on foreclosures on borrowers that are behind in their USDA loans.

 

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