Evening Report | August 23, 2022
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Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour continued today - results for Nebraska and Indiana will be released at 8 pm CT.
Preliminary Route Report with Brian Grete, eastern Crop Tour leader
What counties have you sampled from?
- Indiana: Hamilton, Boone, Clinton, Montgomery, Fountain
Corn yield range:
- 124.7 boa to 244.7 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 183.1 bpa
Soybean pod count in 3’x3’ square:
- 408 pods to 2,447.2 pods
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 1,103.7 pods
Please share a few comments from your route:
The corn we saw today was pretty consistent, with really solid ear count samples ranging from 98 to 119. We did see some issues with heat and dryness, including some ears tipped back. Grain length was an issue on some of the smaller yield samples. The ears are there, they’re just not all filled out.
Soybean pod counts were all over the board, much more variability than we saw in corn. With the heat and dryness, some fields suffered from lost pods. If they get some timely, late rains they’ll be ok. We didn’t see any real damage issues with the beans – some weed pressure, but nothing major and pretty clean.
Preliminary Route Report with Chip Flory, western Tour consultant
What counties have you sampled from?
- Nebraska: Clay, Fillmore, Saline, Hamilton, Lancaster
Corn yield range:
- 127 bpa to 220 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 174.6 BPA
Soybean pod count in 3’x3’ square:
- 742 pods to 1,824 pods
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 1,338 pods
Please share a few comments from your route:
Drought stress was clearly evident from Grand Island to Nebraska City, and even more evident as we got into the eastern hills of Nebraska. The irrigated corn was good, but not great. The dryland corn we saw was a big improvement from what we saw (Monday), but it could have been a lot better than what it is.
We saw gray leaf spot in corn at light to moderate levels. In soybeans, the amount of water hemp we saw in some fields is going to make 2023 much more difficult to manage, because there’s going to be a heck of a “seed bank” out there, enough to be concerned about next year. It appeared the crop didn’t canopy early, then had late emergence on the hemp.
Preliminary Route Report with Brent Judisch, western Tour consultant
What counties have you sampled from?
- Nebraska: Hamilton, York, Saline
Corn yield range:
- 97.4 bpa to 203.4 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 146.55 bpa
Soybean pod count in 3’x3’ square:
- 859 pods to 1,460 pods
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 1,144 pods
Please share a few comments from your route:
We saw about half irrigated corn, half dryland. There were two fields we couldn’t sample, because they’d been replanted and were still pollinating. The crops were a little better than what we saw yesterday, but we’ve been in irrigated country, and now we’re getting back into the drier areas in Southeastern Nebraska, such as Fillmore County. The last few stops we saw ears hanging, not quite dry enough to harvest but approaching that stage.
Overall, better samples than yesterday, but we’re pulling 200 bpa samples on irrigated fields where normally you’d see 230 bpa. We haven’t seen the pollination problems we saw yesterday, but more barren stalks and fewer ears, which is probably hail-related.
Soybeans we’ve seen so far were better than yesterday, in terms of appearance. The bean “factory” is still there, but the crop is running out of time to get the rain it needs. We’re seeing bean fields with white leaves, though not seeing as many flat pods. Generally, we’re seeing more mature beans than yesterday.
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Preliminary Route Report with Mark Bernard, eastern Tour consultant
What counties have you sampled from?
- Indiana: Madison, Grant, Wabash, Fulton, Cass
Corn yield range:
- 126 bpa to 223 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 189 BPA
Soybean pod count in 3’x3’ square:
- 86 pods to 2,371 pods
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 1,216 pods
Please share a few comments from your route:
We thought we’d seen he better corn on the first half of our route today, but that was not the case. The better corn was on the western half, which was somewhat surprising. I thought they’d have more rain problems, but apparently had enough rain at right times to keep fields we sample running full steam ahead.
On the question of yield prospects, the corn we saw is relatively immature, and without sufficient rain and the right temperatures, kernels could still pull back and abort. We saw some “brittle snap” on the corn.
We were pleasantly surprised on the soybeans we saw, with exception of the last field. We got pretty good pod counts, considering the dryness they had in this area, and there was little disease or insect pressure.
Day 1 Crop Tour results for South Dakota and Ohio… Scouts on the first day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 118.45 bu. per acre in South Dakota, down sharply from both last year’s 151.45 bu. per acre estimate and the three-year Crop Tour average of 161.59 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 871.40 for South Dakota, down from 996.86 in 2021 and 1,026.86 for the three year average.
In Ohio, samples yielded an average corn yield of 174.17 bu. per acre, down from 185.06 bu. per acre in 2021 but up from the three-year average of 169.03 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square totaled 1,131.64 for Ohio, down from 1,195.37 in 2021 but above the three-year average of 1,038.35.
Dryness concern sends corn, soybean prices soaring… Corn and soybean futures rallied to eight-week highs after USDA crop ratings unexpectedly worsened and the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour confirmed likely yield loss from drought in the western Corn Belt. December corn surged 26 1/4 cents to $6.55 1/4, the contract’s highest closing price since June 28. November soybeans rose 25 3/4 cents to $14.61. Late Monday, USDA reported the U.S. corn crop 55% in “good” or “excellent” condition as of Sunday, down from 57% a week earlier. Corn rated poor-to-very poor increased to 18% from 17%.
Oil prices also rally… Global crude oil prices jumped nearly 4% after Saudi Arabia floated the idea of OPEC+ output cuts to support prices in the case of returning Iranian crude and with the prospect of a drop in U.S. inventories. The Saudi energy minister said OPEC+ had the means to deal with challenges including cutting production, state news agency SPA said on Monday, citing comments Abdulaziz bin Salman made to Bloomberg. Front-month WTI crude futures rose over $3 to nearly $94.
Europe facing its worst drought in at least 500 years… Two-thirds of the European continent is in a state of alert or warning, reducing inland shipping, electricity production and the yields of certain crops, a European Union agency said today. The August report of the European Drought Observatory (EDO), overseen by the European Commission, said 47% of Europe is under warning conditions, with clear deficit of soil moisture, and 17% in a state of alert, in which vegetation is affected. “The severe drought affecting many regions of Europe since the beginning of the year has been further expanding and worsening as of early August,” the report said, adding that the western Europe-Mediterranean region was likely to experience warmer and drier than normal conditions until November.
Brazil consultant sees big production in 2023… Brazil is poised to produce more than 300 MMT of grains in 2022-23 even as some farmers may cut fertilizer applications, Andre Pessoa, head of agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult, said today, Reuters reported. Brazil will start planting soybeans and summer corn next month in the center-west, and crop conditions will likely be excellent barring unforeseen weather issues, he said. Speaking at a fertilizer industry event, Pessoa noted logistical bottlenecks may delay fertilizer deliveries to some farmers this year, as large volumes were imported in the first half of 2022 but storage and distribution capabilities have yet to be expanded. Still, Pessoa said, crop yields will not suffer because there are nutrients still trapped in the soil after years of steady applications.
Euro falls below parity with the dollar… The euro has fallen below parity with the dollar, diving to its lowest level in 20 years and ending today at a one-to-one exchange rate with the U.S. currency. It's a psychological barrier in the markets, the Associated Press reported, but psychology is important, and the euro's slide underlines the foreboding in the 19 European countries using the currency as they struggle with an energy crisis caused by Russia's war in Ukraine. The European and American currencies are now worth the same amount, and while currencies fluctuate constantly, a currency's exchange rate can be a verdict on economic prospects, and Europe's have been fading. Expectations that the economy would see a rebound after turning the corner from the COVID-19 pandemic have been replaced by recession predictions. More than anything, high energy prices and record inflation are to blame.
Container waiting time at U.S. ports increases… The average amount of time that rail-bound containers waited to leave the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach rose to 16.4 days in July, compared with 13.3 days a month early and 11.3 days a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association. Almost 76% of them have dwell times longer than five days, up from 53% a year earlier.
