Evening Report: April 25, 2022

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Winter wheat conditions continue to worsen... USDA rates 27% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday. That was down three points from the previous week and also three below the average estimate from a Reuters survey. USDA rates 39% of the crop as “poor” to “very poor,” an increase of two points from the previous week. 

USDA reported that 11% of the winter wheat crop has headed, five points behind last year and eight points behind the five-year average.

Corn planting falls further behind... USDA reports 7% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of Sunday, compared to 4% last week and 15% for the five-year average. Analysts expected 9% of the nation’s crop to be planted. According to USDA, Iowa had 2% of its corn planted, 16 points behind last year and 13 points behind average. Illinois also had 2% of its corn in the ground, 19 points behind both last year and the average. Nebraska had 10% of its corn planted, five points ahead of a year ago and one point behind average. Minnesota farmers still did not have any corn planted, 16 points behind last year and 10 points behind average. Indiana had 1% of its corn planted, 12 points behind last year and 10 points behind average.

Nationally, two percent of the corn has emerged, one point behind both last year and the average.
 

Soybean planting also lagging... USDA said farmers have 3% of the soybean acres planted as of Sunday. That is four points behind last year, two points behind average, but in line with what traders expected. Illinois had 1% of its soybeans planted, 15 points behind last year and seven points behind average. Iowa reported 1% of its soybeans planted, four points behind last year and three points behind average. Minnesota reported none of its soybeans were planted, two points behind last year and one point behind average. USDA says Indiana soybean planting had not started, eight points behind last year and four points behind average. Nebraska has 3% of its soybean crop planted, equal to both year-ago and the five-year average.

Cotton planting pace slightly ahead of normal... USDA said farmers had 12% of U.S. cotton acres planted as of Sunday. That is one point ahead of the five-year average. Texas has 19% of its cotton acres seeded, up two points from the same time last year and four points ahead of the five-year average. Georgia has 3% of its cotton crop planted, four points behind and the five-year average.

Spring wheat planting remains behind... Farmers have 13% of U.S. spring wheat in the ground, up five points from the previous week, but two points behind the five-year average and one point behind traders’ expectations. North Dakota had 4% of its spring wheat planted, four points behind the five-year average. Montana farmers have planted 18% of their spring wheat, four points ahead of the five-year average. Minnesota has none of its spring wheat seeded, eight points behind the five-year average. South Dakota farmers have 36% of their spring wheat planted, one point ahead of average. Idaho farmers have 37% of their spring wheat planted, 16 points behind the five-year average.

Midwest planting conditions expected to improve... World Weather Inc. predicts the Midwest will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks. The forecaster says fieldwork will improve overall and some planting should happen between rain events. The wettest period will occur from Friday to Thursday, May 5, with two rounds of rain predicted. Widespread rain is expected Friday through Sunday and another round May 3-5 before drying out May 6-9.

The Delta and Southeast are predicted to see a few rounds of rain during the next two weeks. World Weather forecasts planting should make progress between the rain events. However, planting could remain sluggish at times in the Delta.

USDA reports a higher Food Producer Price Index... USDA reported unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs had the largest increase from February to March at 6.2% in its Food Price Outlook Producer Price Index. The category had a 35.2% increase in the past year and has an 18.2% increase year-to-date average over 2021. In its forecasts for 2022, the largest increase from last month was a 20-point increase for farm-level wheat to be up 40% to 43% in 2022. Wholesale fats and oils had a 13-point increase from March to a 40% to 43% price jump this year.   Wholesale wheat flour is predicted to increase 21.0% to 24.0% in 2022, up nine points from last month. Farm-level soybeans were increased by 3.5 points to 12.0% to 15.0% in 2022. Wholesale poultry was increased by 3 points to a 12.0% to 15.0% increase. Farm-level milk is predicted to increase 2.0% to 5.0% in 2022, up 2 points from March. Farm-level eggs, wholesale pork and farm-level cattle predictions were unchanged from the previous month. USDA expects wholesale beef producer prices to increase 2.0% to 5.0% in 2022, down two points from last month’s forecast.

USDA raises 2022 consumer food price outlook... USDA predicts consumer food prices will increase 5.0% to 6.0% in 2022, up 0.5 points from its last month’s projection. USDA reported consumer food prices rose 1.0% from February to March and 8.8% in the past 12 months. In its updated 2022 forecast, all food categories were higher except for consumer food prices away from home, which is the same as last month at a 5.5% to 6.5% increase. Consumer egg prices had the largest increase from last month, up 3.5 points to a 6.0% to 7.0% increase this year. Consumer beef and veal prices were increased by 3.0 points at 6.0% to 7.0% increase for 2022. Consumer poultry prices were increased by 1.5 points to 7.5% to 8.5% above last year. Pork prices are expected to increase 4.0% to 5.0% from year-ago.

Russia blocks economic data releases... In an effort to hide the effects of Western sanctions, Russia has stopped publishing some of its economic data, the Wall Street Journal reported. Last week, its Federal Customs Service suspended its monthly publication of data on exports and imports. The data normally contains thousands of categories of goods and services that Russia imports and exports, including agricultural and energy commodity information. Russian lawmakers are also working on a bill banning lenders from sharing data with foreign states. The government still publishes inflation, GDP and other mainstay figures.  Economists expect Russia to impose more data restrictions in the future.

Floating mines reduce Danube River shipping... Ukrainian border guards last week closed several shipping lanes at the mouth of the Danube River due to drifting mines in the Black Sea, according to APK-Inform agriculture consultancy. Last week, the Danube ports of Izmail and Reni remained the only sea routes for Ukrainian grain exports after seaports were blocked due to the Russian invasion. Ukrainian agriculture and transport officials are seeking to boost Danube River ports’ export capacity, which would allow shipping grain through the Danube to Romanian Black Sea ports.

Mexico to release plan to be more food self-sufficient... Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will present a plan that will make the prices of Mexican staples less exposed to foreign markets, reported Bloomberg. Boosting domestic food production and reducing global price swing exposure are goals of the plan. He does not want to cut Mexico’s connections to international suppliers or impose tariffs. Consumer prices can be kept down by giving government assistance to farmers and developing a plan with private businesses. Obrador said the country needs to plant corn beans, and rice to be self-sufficient and help control inflation.

CME Group will reset daily trading limits on May 2... CME Group announced some price limits for grains and oilseeds would be reset starting May 1 for the trade date of May 2, 2022. This is part of the usual semi-annual review of limit resets that occurs on May 1 and Nov. 1. Daily corn limits will change from 35 cents per bu. to 50 cents, with the new expanded limit moving to 75 cents. Soybean future limits will increase to $1.15, up from 90 cents with a $1.75 expanded limit. The daily limit for SRW and HRW wheat futures will drop 15 cents from the current level to 70 cents with expanded limits of $1.05. The soyoil limit would increase from 40 cents per pound to 50 cents with a 75-cent per pound expanded limit. Soymeal futures will increase from $25 per ton to $30 per ton with a $45-per-ton expanded limit.