CPC: El Niño Will Likely End “in a Month or Two”

Posted on 07/11/2019 10:02 AM

El Nino oddsThe U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain elevated across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and an El Niño remains in effect, in contrast to assessments by Japan and Australia’s weather bureaus which earlier this week said the weather pattern had come to an end.

But CPC did note that SST anomalies across the eastern Pacific decreased during June and El Niño was likely to transition to ENSO neutral (where neither El Niño nor La Niña are present) “in the next month or two.”

ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, according to the weather center.

CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities

Season

La Niña

Neutral

El Niño

JJA 2019

1%

50%

49%

JAS 2019

4%

59%

37%

ASO 2019

8%

62%

30%

SON 2019

12%

60%

28%

OND 2019

13%

56%

31%

NDJ 2019

16%

49%

35%

DJF 2020

15%

47%

38%

JFM 2020

15%

47%

38%

FMA 2020

14%

49%

37%

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