Soybean Ratings Decline, Despite Improved Weather

Posted on 07/08/2019 4:04 PM

Ninety-eight percent of the U.S. corn crop had emerged as of July 7, whereas all of the crop is typically out of the ground at this point in the growing season. Emergence stood at 92% in Ohio, 93% in Indiana, 94% in Wisconsin, 95% in Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, 96% in Missouri, and 99% in Kansas and Kentucky. All of the crop was up in the other major producing states.

USDA reports that just 8% of the crop was silking as of Sunday versus 22% for the five-year average. Illinois has just 4% of the crop silking (41% on average), with Indiana at 1% silking (22% on average), Iowa at 1% (14%), Kansas at 19% (38%), and Nebraska at 2% (16%). None of the crop was silking in Minnesota or South Dakota versus 4% and 6% on average, respectively. 

Recent drier, warmer and sunnier weather helped push the amount of crop rated “good” to “excellent” a percentage point higher to 57%, which was right in line with expectations. But that’s still a dramatic 18 points behind last year’s bumper crop.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

3

2

Poor

9

9

5

Fair

31

32

18

Good

47

47

54

Excellent

10

9

21

                                                                               

Soybean condition ratings slide, whereas trade had expected some improvement

As of Sunday, 96% of the U.S. bean crop had been planted, which is three points behind the five-year average. That includes 93% of the Illinois and Indiana crop (versus 100% on average), 99% of the Iowa crop (100% on average), 90% of the Missouri crop (92%), and 99% of the South Dakota crop (100% on average). Minnesota, Nebraska and North Dakota have finished planting, as is typically the case at this point in the season.

Ninety percent of the crop had emerged as of July 7, which compares to 98% for the five-year average. Illinois has 86% of the crop out of the ground (98% on average), with Iowa at 96% (100%), Minnesota at 99% (100%), North Dakota at 99% (100%), Missouri at 76% (90%), Nebraska at 98% (99%), Indiana at 85% (99%) and South Dakota at 96% (100%).

Just 10% of the crop is blooming, which compares to 32% for the five-year average and 44% last year at this point.

USDA surprised with a one-point drop in the amount of soybeans rated “good” to “excellent” to 53%, whereas the market was anticipating a one-point increase. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” also edged up a point to 12%. Last year at this time, 77% of the crop was rated in the top two categories, with just 7% falling in the lowest two categories.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

2

2

Poor

9

9

5

Fair

35

35

22

Good

46

47

55

Excellent

7

7

16

 

Spring wheat way behind, but condition rating is strong

Warmer, drier weather over the past week helped push forward the development of a late-planted spring wheat crop, with 56% of the crop headed as of Sunday. That’s still well behind 73% headed for the 2014 to 2018 average. North Dakota is 55% headed (71% on average), with Montana at 36% (59%), and Minnesota at 75% (81%).

While the crop might be behind, its condition rating is rising. USDA rates 78% of the crop “good” to “excellent,” which is up 3 points from last week and just two points under year-ago levels.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

1

Poor

3

3

3

Fair

19

21

16

Good

70

67

66

Excellent

8

8

14

 

Cotton development lags

As of Sunday, 47% of the U.S. cotton crop was squaring and 13% of it was setting bolls. These figures lag the five-year average by five and three percentage points, respectively. The state-by-state breakdown shows top-producing Texas has 37% of the crop squaring (43% on average) and 10% of the crop setting bolls (13% on average).

Cotton condition ratings were a mixed bag. The amount of crop rated “good” to “excellent” climbed two percentage points to 54%, but the amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” also edged a point higher to 19%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

5

8

Poor

17

13

19

Fair

27

30

32

Good

47

45

34

Excellent

7

7

7

 

Winter wheat harvest nearing half complete

Farmers took advantage of drier weather to push winter wheat harvest 17 points ahead to 47% complete, which is 14 percentage points behind the five-year average. That signals the bulk of related hedge pressure could ease soon. The pace was a bit more aggressive than the market anticipated. Top-producing Kansas has cut 61% of its crop versus 84% for the five-year average.

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