Congress Returns to Nominations, Spending Issues | FOMC | USDA WASDE

Posted on 07/08/2019 5:22 AM

U.S./China talks continue via phone and possibly trip ahead to Beijing

The week ahead will include trade talks between China and the U.S. by phone and perhaps a visit to Beijing by U.S. officials. Meanwhile, a high-level U.S. trade delegation is off to visit India. China's update on foreign exchange reserves comes July 12. FOMC minutes will come Wednesday, while reports on consumer prices and producer prices headline the economic calendar. The House Financial Services Committee will hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony on Wednesday. The Senate Banking Committee will hear Powell's testimony on Thursday. USDA issues its monthly supply/demand updates on Thursday. The Senate returns Monday and the House on Tuesday as the Senate will again take up nominations and the House will consider the Defense Authorization Act.

 

Lawmakers return to Washington, with entrenched differences over nominations, legislation and passage of spending bills needed to avoid a government shutdown, raise the budget caps and lift the federal debt limit.

The House returns Tuesday, with floor debate is expected later in the week on the fiscal 2020 defense authorization bill (HR 2500). There is a Rules Committee meeting on it scheduled Tuesday.

The Senate returns today and will resume considering the nomination of Daniel Bress to be U.S. circuit judge for the 9th Circuit, with a cloture vote late today, to be followed by cloture votes on several other judiciary and executive branch nominees.

Transportation issues will be one of the focus topics for hearings. The Waterways Council will testify Wednesday at a House Transportation and Infrastructure subcommittee hearing on reauthorization of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA). The group is lobbying to boost the amount of general funds that go toward inland waterways projects. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold a hearing Wednesday on surface transportation needs.

On the trade policy front, a telephone video conference and perhaps an official visit to Beijing will take place this week relative to U.S./China trade talks. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will have a conference call with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Other officials from both countries will be part of the video conference call.

A U.S. trade team from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will meet in New Delhi to take up talks that stalled earlier over tariffs and revoked trade preferences for India. The delegation will include Chris Wilson, assistant USTR for South and Central Asia, and Brendan Lynch, deputy USTR for South and Central Asia. The U.S. is also challenging India’s retaliatory tariffs in a new World Trade Organization case.

The U.S.-U.K. Trade and Investment Working Group will meet July 10-11 to review agricultural issues impeding U.S.-U.K. trade, paving the way for the two countries to eventually negotiate a free trade agreement.

USMCA. Tuesday (July 9) is the earliest date that President Trump could submit implementing legislation to start congressional debate on the U.S.-Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Meanwhile, a working group of Democrats appointed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to address labor, environmental, pharmaceutical, and enforcement provisions, is seeking to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer this week. The group also has invited Lighthizer to meet each week that the House is in session in July, according to reports.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Tuesday will address the department’s Bureau of Industry and Security’s annual update conference, which will run July 9-11 in Washington.

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for May. Economists forecast a $16 billion increase in consumer credit to $4.07 trillion, an all-time high. Consumer credit first cracked the $4 trillion barrier last December.

Tuesday:
— National Federation of Independent Business reports its Small Business Optimism Index for June. Consensus estimates are for a 103 reading, down from May’s 105.
— Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May. Expectations are for 7.4 million job openings at the end of May, down from 7.45 million on the last business day of April.

Wednesday:
— Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of its June policy meeting, where several officials called for a rate cut. The strong June employment report should ease the Fed’s concerns about a sharper-than-anticipated U.S. economic slowdown, but still leave the door open to a rate cut at the meeting later this month.
— Census Bureau releases its Wholesale Inventories report for May. Consensus estimates are for a 0.5% increase in wholesale inventories to $678 billion. The April gain was a similar 0.4%.
— MBA Mortgage Applications
— Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
— Bank of Canada announces its monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Thursday:
— Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Consumer Price Index for June. Economists forecast the annual rate of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to remain unchanged at 2.0%. Economists forecast the annual rate of inflation to rise 1.6%, slower than May’s 1.8%.
— Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 6. The four-week average of jobless claims was 225,000.
— Treasury Budget
— Fed Balance Sheet
— Money Supply
— European Central Bank releases minutes from its monetary policy meeting in June.
— Bank of England publishes its semiannual Financial Stability report

Friday:
— BLS releases its Producer Price Index for June. Expectations are for a 0.1% increase, even with May’s rise. Again, excluding volatile food and energy prices, the PPI is seen rising 0.2%, in line with May’s gain.
— China's update on foreign exchange reserves

Fed speakers on tap:

Tuesday:
— Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles gives keynote speech at a conference held in the offices of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. The theme of the conference is “Stress Testing: A Discussion and Review.”
— St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard gives welcome address at OMFIF Foundation Main Meeting at Washington University's Knight Center in St. Louis, Missouri.
— Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks about monetary policy in an Armchair Chat at the Official Monetary and Financial Institution Forum Conference held in Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri.

Wednesday:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell delivers the semiannual Monetary Policy Report and testifies before the House. The following day, Powell testifies before the Senate.
— St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard participates in moderated Q&A on monetary policy at the OMFIF Foundation Main Meeting Luncheon in St. Louis, Missouri.

Thursday:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers his semiannual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.
— New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak on Albany region community revitalization during a Hudson Valley and Albany regional visit in Albany, NY.
— Federal Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles speaks at the Special Patriot Award Ceremony Recognizing Alice Rivlin at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D.C.
— New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote address on the regional economy at the conclusion of the Hudson Valley and Albany Regional Visit in Albany, NY, followed by Q&A.
— Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall meeting in Aberdeen, South Dakota, with audience Q&A.

Key USDA and international agriculture and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, July 8

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report (delayed due to Thursday U.S. holiday)
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Tuesday, July 9

Ag reports and events:

  • French grain acreage, production

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report

Wednesday, July 10

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • AmSpec, Intertek, SGS release Malaysia’s July 1-10 palm oil exports
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board end-June stockpiles, production, export data
  • China International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit 2019 (Day 1)
  • FranceAgrimer updates French crop estimates

Energy reports and events:

  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Thursday, July 11

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • WASDE
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • CAOC releases monthly China agricultural supply-demand report
  • China International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit 2019 (Day 2)
  • Brazil’s Conab soybean and corn report for July
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
  • Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data
  • Russia refining maintenance schedule

Friday, July 12

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Feed Grains Database
  • Dairy Data (Dairy Monthly Tables)
  • Wheat data
  • China June trade data, including soybean, edible oil & rubber imports
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on French crop conditions

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • IEA Monthly Oil Market Report

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, July 8

  • Congress. Senate returns today and the House Tuesday, July 9.
  • President Donald Trump delivers remarks on "America's environmental leadership."
  • Mexican presidency. Woodrow Wilson Center's (WWC) Mexico Institute holds a discussion on "Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the Fourth Transformation: One Year After His Historic Election Victory."

Tuesday, July 9

  • Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will address the department’s Bureau of Industry and Security’s annual update conference, which will run July 9-11 in Washington.
  • U.S. defense strategy in Central, South America. Senate Armed Services Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee hearing on "Implementation of the National Defense Strategy in the United States Southern Command Area of Responsibility.".
  • FERC. Legislative Branch Capacity Working Group and the R Street Institute hold a discussion on "Losing its Charge? Can Congress Keep Up with the Pace of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Regulation in Energy Policy?"
  • U.S./Mexico border issues. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a discussion on "Beyond walls and tariffs: Responding to migration challenges at the US-Mexico border."
  • Health care. Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) holds a book discussion on "Priced Out: The Ethics and Economics of Health Care."

Wednesday, July 10

  • WRDA. House Transportation and Infrastructure Water Resources and Environment Subcommittee hearing, “Water Resources Development Acts (WRDA): Status of Implementation And Assessing Future Needs.”
  • Surface transportation. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on "Investing in America's Surface Transportation Infrastructure: The Need for a Multi-Year Reauthorization Bill."
  • U.S. monetary policy. House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy." Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to testify.
  • 5G technologies. Federal Communications Commission public meeting to consider ways to expand the availability of the nation’s radio waves or spectrum to commercial carriers as part of a global race to roll out 5G technologies.
  • Russia disinformation. House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing on "U.S. Efforts to Counter Russian Disinformation and Malign Influence."
  • Marijuana laws. Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on "Marijuana Laws in America: Racial Justice and the Need for Reform."
  • Antibiotic resistance. Health and Human Services Department meeting of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria, July 10-11.
  • Dietary guidelines. USDA’s Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services; Health and Human Services Department hold a meeting of the 2020 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee to discuss and deliberate the review of the evidence on the topics and scientific questions identified by the Departments, July 10-11.
  • Sodium nitrate trade. Chinese and German Sodium Nitrite Trade Legal Review meeting to vote on Inv. Nos. 701-TA-453 and 731-TA-1136-1137, Sodium Nitrite from China and Germany; scheduled to complete and file its determinations and views of the Commission by July 31, 2019.
  • U.S./China trade. American Kitchen Cabinet Alliance (AKCA) discussion about U.S./China trade and "one of the largest trade cases ever filed against China" at the Commerce Department and International Trade Commission.
  • CFTC. U.S. hamber of Commerce (USCC) discussion with Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Chris Giancarlo about the chairman's role in public service as a market regulator.
  • U.S. food, AI. Food Tank holds a briefing on "The Intersection of Food, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Technology."

Thursday, July 11

  • White House social media summit to bring together digital leaders for a conversation on the opportunities and challenges of the online environment
  • Rural broadband. House Agriculture Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit Subcommittee hearing on "Building Opportunity in Rural America through Affordable, Reliable and High-Speed Broadband."
  • Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the second day of testimony on monetary policy, this time before the Senate Banking Committee.
  • FY 2020 budget: USAID. House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing on "Management Challenges and Oversight of the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Programs."
  • Cuba human rights. House Foreign Affairs Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security and Trade Subcommittee hearing on "Human Rights in Cuba: Beyond the Veneer of Reform."
  • Surface transportation research. House Science, Space and Technology Research and Technology Subcommittee hearing on "Bumper to Bumper: The Need for a National Surface Transportation Research Agenda."
  • LNG. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on "Important Role of U.S. LNG (liquefied natural gas) in Evolving Global Markets."
  • U.S./China issues. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission meeting to review and edit drafts of the 2019 Annual Report to Congress.
  • Antibiotic resistant bacteria. Health and Human Services Department meeting of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria, July 10-11.
  • Supreme Court. Heritage Foundation holds its Supreme Court Review of the 2018-2019 Term.
  • Cuba economy. Inter-American Dialogue (IAD) discussion on "Cuba's Sinking Economy: Causes, Consequences and Remedies."
  • Energy issues. Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) 2019 Congressional Clean Energy Expo and Policy Forum.

Friday, July 12

  • Presidential misconduct. House Judiciary Committee hearing on "Lessons from the Mueller Report, Part III - Constitutional Processes for Addressing Presidential Misconduct."
  • Electric grid security. House Energy & Commerce Energy Subcommittee hearing on "Keeping The Lights On: Addressing Cyber Threats To The Grid."
  • Immigrant children. House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing on "Separation and Treatment of Immigrant Children."
  • Antibacterial drug guidance. Food and Drug Administration meeting to provide a public forum for FDA to listen to comments on the draft guidance for industry, "Limited Population Pathway for Antibacterial and Antifungal Drugs," that was published in the Federal Register on June 13, 2018.

 

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