Trump, Perdue in Iowa on Tuesday on Year-round E15, Farm Aid Details

Posted on 06/10/2019 3:52 AM

Trade policy focus of several congressional hearings


President Donald Trump will visit Council Bluffs, Iowa, on Tuesday and USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue is expected to join him. Trump will comment on the recent approval of year-round use of E15 and he will no doubt comment on the recent 90-day suspension of new tariffs on Mexico (link for details) and the need for Congress to approve the USMCA. Perdue is expected to provide additional details regarding MFP 2 and the $19.1 billion disaster aid bill as it pertains to the ag sector.
     USDA on Tuesday issues its updated WASDE report with the focus on how the slow, weather-impacted corn and soybean planting season will impact the supply and demand forecasts. Today's Crop Progress will also be watched closely for the latest update on corn and soybean plantings and crop development figures.

 

President Donald Trump will be in Council Bluffs, Iowa, on Tuesday to visit the Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy ethanol plant. He is expected to be accompanied by USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue. Trump will comment about the EPA's recent decision to allow year-round sales of E15, something Trump a year ago said he would push. The president will also likely comment on the recent 90-day suspension of new tariffs on Mexico, as well as the need for Congress to approve the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Perdue will likely provide more details regarding the second Market Facilitation Program package (MFP 2) and some features of the recent $19.1 disaster aid package.

Congress will continue to focus on Fiscal Year 2020 appropriations bills and the Senate has several nominations it will consider for floor debate and votes.

Republican leaders are trying to set up a meeting with Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin and White House advisers to seek a strategy to raise discretionary spending caps and avoid default on the federal debt later this year. Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby said Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is leading the effort to negotiate a deal with Democrats that will raise the caps and allow appropriators to begin moving their FY 2020 bills.

Trade policy will continue to be a congressional focus, with several hearings on tap, including the impact of recent trade policy skirmishes on the U.S. agricultural trade outlook.

Senators from both sides of the aisle plan to roll out drug pricing bills in the next two weeks in the hopes of getting them into a package being debated by the Senate Finance panel.

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April. Economists forecast 7.4 million job openings at the end of April, about even with March.

Tuesday:
— National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for May. Consensus estimates are for a 101.8 reading, down from April’s 103.5.
— BLS releases its Producer Price Index for May. Expectations are for a year-over-year rise of 2.1% after a 2.2% gain in April. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen increasing 2.3% after jumping 2.4% in April.
— Mexico's national statistics agency releases industrial output data for April. Mexican industrial output, which fell 1.3% in March from February, was 0.1% lower compared to a year earlier.

Wednesday:
— BLS reports the Consumer Price Index for May. Economists forecast the annual rate to rise 1.9% The core CPI is expected to jump 2.1%. Both rates would be roughly even with April’s.
— MBA Mortgage Applications
— Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
— Treasury Budget
— Brazilian statistics agency IBGE is expected to post retail sales numbers for April. Retail sales slumped 4.5% in March compared with a year earlier.

Thursday:
— Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 8 is likely to have risen to a seasonally adjusted 217,000.
— Import and Export Prices
— Federal Balance Sheet
— Money Supply

Friday:
— Census Bureau reports Retail Sales data for May. Consensus estimates are for a 0.6% increase after a 0.2% decline in April. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to gain 0.5% — up from April’s 0.1% bump.
— University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for June. Expectations are for a 98 reading, up/down from May’s 100.
— Federal Reserve is expected to report a 0.2% rise in industrial production in May, compared with a 0.5% fall in April.
— Business Inventories
— Brazil's IBC-BR economic activity index

Key USDA and international agriculture and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, June 10

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • County Estimates: Poultry
  • China May trade data, including soybean, edible oil & rubber imports
  • Malaysia June 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, Intertek and SGS
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Holiday in Australia

Energy reports and events:

  • Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and his Saudi counterpart Khalid Al-Falih chair an intergovernmental commission meeting in Moscow

Tuesday, June 11

Ag reports and events:

  • WASDE
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • President Trump in Iowa to visit ethanol plant
  • Vietnam May commodity trade data
  • French agriculture ministry crop area estimates for grains
  • International Grains Council conference in London, day one
  • Conab’s Brazil soybean, corn production

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • BP publishes its annual Statistical Review of World Energy
  • EIA’s STEO report

Wednesday, June 12

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Feed Grains Database
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Dairy Data (Dairy Monthly Tables)
  • Wheat data
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board May production, stocks, export data
  • Australian crop report from Abares
  • Rosario monthly crop report
  • International Grains Council conference in London, day two
  • FranceAgriMer monthly press conference

Energy reports and events:

  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Thursday, June 13

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Cotton & Wool Outlook
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Feed Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook
  • County Estimates: Cattle & Sheep
  • Potato Stocks
  • Agro Paris Bourse hosts the Paris Commodities Exchange
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • OPEC monthly oil market report, including demand forecasts and OPEC production

Friday, June 14

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
  • Season Average Price Forecast
  • Coffee: World Markets and Trade
  • Turkey Hatchery
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on French crop conditions

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • IEA monthly Oil Market Report, including demand forecasts

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, June 10

  • Investment. Commerce Sec. Wilbur Ross and his agency host the annual SelectUSA Investment Summit in Washington; through Wednesday. On Tuesday, Ross makes opening remarks.
  • U.S. Cattlemen’s Association fly-in, through Tuesday.
  • National Milk Producers Federation briefing on Dairy Margin Coverage program, National Press Club.
  • Mueller report/obstruction. House Judiciary Committee hearing on "Lessons from the Mueller Report: Presidential Obstruction and Other Crimes."
  • Pesticides & endangered species. Environmental Protection Agency holds a meeting to seek comments on a draft revised method for conducting national level threatened and endangered (listed) species biological evaluations (BEs) for pesticides.
  • World food prize. State Department hosts the 2019 World Food Prize Laureate Announcement Ceremony. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs Manisha Singh delivers opening and closing remarks and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.S. Ambassador to Cambodia Kenneth Quinn, president of the World Food Prize Foundation will participate.
  • Nutrition. American Society for Nutrition (ASN) holds the 2019 Nutrition conference with remarks from Susan Mayne, director of the FDA Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition.
  • LIBOR. U.S. Chamber of Commerce (USCC) Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness, the Bipartisan Policy Center, and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) hold a discussion on "Transitioning from London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR): What it Means for Main Street and Wall Street."
  • Middle East economy. Atlantic Council holds a discussion on "The Middle East's Economic Outlook."
  • Campaign cyber threats. Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) holds a discussion on "Cyber Threats to Campaigns and Elections."
  • Hurricanes & maritime impacts. Congressional Ports Opportunity, Renewal, Trade and Security (PORTS) Caucus holds a briefing on a US Committee on the Marine Transportation System (CMTS) report titled "The 2017 Hurricane Season: Recommendations for a Resilient Path Forward for the Marine Transportation System."

Tuesday, June 11

  • President Trump tours ethanol facility in Council Bluffs, Iowa, and attends a fundraiser.
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Mick Mulvaney, director of Office of Management and Budget and acting White House chief of staff, to speak at Peterson Foundation's tenth annual Fiscal Summit titled "Building America's Future, unveiling and debating fiscal solutions created by seven think tanks from across the political spectrum.
  • U.S. ag trade outlook. House Agriculture subcommittee hearing to assess the state of U.S. agricultural products in international markets.
  • Wall Street Journal CFO Network forum, in Washington. Participants include National Security Adviser John Bolton on “global hot spots” that may disrupt trade and investment; Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney speaks on trade, budget and regulation initiatives; Education Sec. Betsy DeVos speaks on the challenges of building a well-educated workforce; and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discusses the possible content of a trade deal between the U.S. and China.
  • Consumer trends. Top executives of several global packaged goods companies will provide investors updates on their strategies and talk broadly about consumer trends at the Deutsche Bank dbAccess Global Consumer Conference in Paris. The three-day conference will see executives from Unilever NV, Nestle SA, Imperial Brands PLC, Pandora A/S, Sysco Corp, Coca-Cola Co, Henkel AG & Co KGaA, Nomad Foods Ltd, Mondelez International Inc, Danone SA and Colgate-Palmolive Co.
  • Student loans. House Financial Services subcommittee hearing to examine state efforts to oversee $1.5 trillion student loan servicing market.
  • Data brokers and privacy. Senate Banking Committee hearing on data brokers and the impact on financial data privacy.
  • Legislative markup. House Financial Services Committee holds a markup of various bills, including five-year National Flood Insurance Program reauthorization and a bill that would require companies to disclose their true owners to prevent the creation of shell companies.
  • House Appropriations Committee markup on the FY 2020 Homeland Security spending bill and Financial Services spending bill; the Homeland Security spending bill includes no funds for border fencing and would block construction using money reprogrammed from other accounts.
  • Climate change. House Budget Committee takes testimony from four expert witnesses on the current and projected costs of climate change and fiscal risks to the federal government and the taxpayer.
  • EPA. Former EPA administrators testify at a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing to examine the future direction of the agency.
  • Border protection. Acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan testifies before Senate Judiciary Committee to discuss a bill, introduced by panel chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), aimed at resolving the crisis at the Southwest border.
  • Offshore wind workforce. House Natural Resources Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee hearing on "Building a 21st Century American Offshore Wind Workforce," including HR 3068, the "Offshore Wind Jobs and Opportunities Act."
  • Biodefense science. Health and Human Services Department holds a meeting of the National Biodefense Science Board to gather expert advice provided by NBSB and guidance to the Secretary on scientific, technical, and other matters of special interest to HHS regarding current and future chemical, biological, nuclear, and radiological agents, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate,
  • Renewable energy. Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) holds its 22nd Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Expo and Policy Forum.
  • World hunger. Bread for the World holds its 2019 advocacy summit reception to honor members of Congress for leadership to end hunger in the United States and around the world, including Senate Ag Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.).

Wednesday, June 12

  • President Trump meets Poland President Andrzej Duda at the White House and holds a press conference.
  • FERC. House Energy Subcommittee oversight hearing on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
  • FCC. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).
  • Universal health coverage. House Ways and Means panel hearing examining “pathways to universal health coverage.”
  • Medical bills. House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on protecting patients from “surprise medical bills.”
  • Nominations. Senate Homeland Security Committee considers nominations including Jeffrey Byard to be administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
  • Disaster readiness. Peter Gaynor, acting administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency, testifies at House Homeland Security Committee hearing assessing FEMA’s readiness for future disasters.
  • Electronic health records. House Veterans’ Affairs subcommittee hearing to review the implementation of electronic health record systems at the VA Dept.
  • Border protection. GOP Rep. Will Hurd discusses efforts to secure the southern border in “a practical, efficient and cost-effective manner,” at a Ripon Society forum.
  • Mueller Report. House Select Intelligence Committee hearing on counterintelligence lessons from the Mueller Report.
  • Arms to Saudi Arabia. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators unveiled 22 measures aimed at blocking Trump admin. weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and UAE without congressional approval.
  • China's Belt and Road Initiative. Carolyn Bartholomew, chairman, and Roy Kamphausen, commissioner, U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, testify before Senate Finance subcommittee hearing on China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
  • Trucking industry. House Transportation & Infrastructure Highways and Transit Subcommittee hearing on "Under Pressure: The State of Trucking in America.".
  • Research needs of U.S. agriculture. House Agriculture Biotechnology, Horticulture and Research Subcommittee hearing on "Increasing Resiliency, Mitigating Risk: Examining the Research and Extension Needs of Producers."
  • Climate change. House Oversight & Reform Environment Subcommittee hearing on "Recovery, Resiliency and Readiness - Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change (Part Three)."
  • Waters of the U.S. regs. Senate Environment & Public Works Full committee and Fisheries, Water and Wildlife Subcommittee joint hearing on "A Review of Waters of the U.S. Regulations: Their Impact on States and the American People."
  • CFTC & Brexit. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) meeting of the Market Risk Advisory Committee. Agenda includes: Discuss the management and mitigation of climate-related financial risks; Presentation on EMIR 2.2, central counterparty stress testing, and Brexit from Steven Maijoor, Chair, European Securities and Markets Authority.
  • Political challenges. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) holds a discussion with House Oversight and Reform ranking member Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on "Congressional Oversight" about the political challenges facing Congress.
  • Rural health care. Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) holds an event to launch a Rural Health Task Force, release a national poll on the health care challenges facing rural America and discuss the barriers and opportunities for improving access to care for those living in rural areas.
  • Food issues. Politics and Prose Bookstore holds a discussion on "The Fate of Food: What We'll Eat in a Bigger, Hotter, Smarter World."
  • U.S./Taiwan. Heritage Foundation discussion on "The Future of Taiwan-US Relations."

Thursday, June 13

  • U.S. ag trade in global markets. Gregg Doud, chief agricultural negotiator, Office of USTR, is among the witnesses testifying at Senate Agriculture Committee hearing on “Certainty in Global Markets for the U.S. Agriculture Sector.” Other witnesses include USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson and USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney.
  • Disasters. Senate Energy Committee hearing to examine the outlook for fire and management programs for 2019.
  • National security. House Intelligence Committee hearing on “National Security Challenges of Artificial Intelligence, Manipulated Media and Deepfakes.”
  • Renewables & climate change. House Select Climate Crisis hearing on "Solving the Climate Crisis: Ramping Up Renewables."
  • Farm Credit reports. Farm Credit Administration Board meeting.
  • Trade & tariffs. Washington International Trade Association (WITA) holds a discussion on tariffs and trade.
  • U.S. economy. Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) discussion on "The U.S. Economy and Trade Policy” with NEC Director Larry Kudlow.

Friday, June 14

  • White House lawyer Emmet Flood, who oversaw the response to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, will leave his position.
  • Britain’s Labour party. Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Protest and Power: Britain's Labour Party from Blair to Corbyn."

 

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