Acres, Yields the Focal Points June 11

Posted on 06/07/2019 2:43 PM

USDA will take into consideration historically slow corn and soybean plantings in its June 11 Supply & Demand Report. In some previous years with extreme planting delays, USDA has lowered its corn acreage and yield forecasts in June. But the reductions will likely be less than some expect. There’s precedent for USDA to raise soybean acres and make little to no change to bean yields in June.

Following is what analysts expect USDA to report on June 11 in terms of U.S. production and carryover, based on a Reuters survey (Bloomberg for cotton).

Expectations for 2019
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

14.251

172.4

Range

13.480-14.859

169.0-176.0

USDA May

15.030

176.0

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

4.123

49.0

Range

3.904-4.240

48.0-49.6

USDA May

4.150

49.5

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Average est.*

22.06

NA

Range*

20.50-23.00

NA

USDA May

22.00

842

 

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

2.123

1.917

Range

2.035-2.245

1.633-2.404

USDA May

2.095

2.485

 

Soybeans – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

1.004

0.983

Range

0.920-1.045

0.854-1.069

USDA May

0.995

0.970

 

Wheat – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

1.121

1.118

Range

1.087-1.152

1.052-1.180

USDA May

1.127

1.141

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.*

NA

6.59

Range

NA

5.80-7.00

USDA May

4.65

6.40

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

325.44

304.96

Range

314.00-328.40

295.00-315.00

USDA May

325.94

314.71

 

Soybeans – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

113.33

112.99

Range

107.40-115.90

104.87-118.50

USDA May

113.18

113.09

 

Wheat – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

274.70

290.00

Range

272.10-276.00

277.00-294.00

USDA May

274.98

293.01

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est. *

NA

76.05

Range*

NA

73.94-78.50

USDA May

76.44

75.69

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

Expectations for
U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.883

Range

1.837-1.920

USDA May

1.897

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.251

Range

1.194-1.291

USDA May

1.268

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

765

Range

662-812

USDA May

780

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

261

Range

250-286

USDA May

265

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

Average est.

224

Range

220-236

USDA May

224

 

Brazilian Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

117.22

Range

116.00-118.50

USDA May

117.00

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

96.86

Range

96.00-101.00

USDA May

100.00

 

Argentine
Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

56.09

Range

55.50-57.00

USDA May

56.00

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

49.28

Range

48.00-50.00

USDA May

49.00

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