Initial Corn Condition Rating Could Fire Up Market Bulls

Posted on 06/07/2019 11:16 AM

Next week USDA will release its first official update on the condition of the U.S. corn crop. Given the record-slow planting pace and excessive moisture, ratings could come in quite low, possibly providing bulls a reason to renew the rally. Indeed, history shows that years where emergence lags by a wide margin tend to yield low initial scores. But we are in unprecedented territory in terms of slow emergence and planting.

The 20-year average for initial corn condition ratings is 69% “good” to “excellent” and the five-year average is 73%.

Some statisticians in states with emergence over 50% reported ratings last week. The combined “good” and “excellent” ratings are as follows.

  • Iowa: 51%
  • Kansas: 43%
  • Missouri: 26%
  • North Caroline: 38%
  • Kentucky: 83%
  • Nebraska: 73%
  • Pennsylvania: 80%
  • Tennessee: 72%
  • Texas: 77%

We anticipate states where planting was delayed will report relatively low ratings along the lines of Iowa and Missouri. Southern states should generally report higher ratings.

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