Market Snapshot | April 18, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are lower for the third straight session, with selling in the soy complex and lacking outside market support weighing on prices.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 501,200 MT for the week ended April 11, up 54% from the previous week but down 45% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 MT to 900,000 MT.
• USDA’s attaché in Argentina cut the country’s corn production forecast to 51 MMT from 57 MMT projected in January due to a 4% reduction in harvested acreage and impacts from corn stunt disease. The post noted, “This is an evolving disease, and its final damage will be known once the last fields are harvested in late June.”
• The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its 2024-25 global corn production forecast by 7 MMT to 1.226 billion tons in its monthly update. The projection is still slightly above the prior season’s 1.223 billion tons.
• May corn has tested support at $4.28 3/4, with additional support at $4.27 1/2. The 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading between $4.32 and $4.33 1/2, stand as resistance.

Soybean futures are mostly 8 to 11 cents lower, while soymeal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower. May soyoil is nearly 35 points lower.

• Nearby soybeans are extending early-week losses following mild corrective buying Wednesday.
• USDA reported soybean export sales of 485,800 MT during the week ended April 11, up 59% from the previous week and 62% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 300,000 MT to 650,000 MT.
• USDA reported daily soymeal sales of 138,000 MT to the Philippines during 2023-24.
• Paraguay will produce a record soybean crop, but exporters are worried about low river levels that are slowing shipments along the key Paraguay-Paraná waterway, with a drought in central-west Brazil affecting water levels downstream.
• May soybeans have dropped to the lowest intraday level since March 1, with support at $11.35 1/4, while Wednesday’s close of $11.49 1/2 is resistance.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while HRW futures are a nickel to 6 cents higher and HRS futures are around 6 to 10 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are favoring the upside, despite U.S. dollar strength and more export cancellations from China in USDA’s weekly export sales data this morning.
• USDA reported net wheat reductions of 93,600 MT for 2023-24 during the week ended April 11 and net sales of 222,000 MT for 2024-25. Traders expected sales to range from (100,000) MT to 200,000 MT for 2023-24 and from 150,000 MT to 400,000 MT for 2024-25. Net reductions of 123,700 MT were reported for China.
• IGC trimmed its global 2024-25 wheat outlook by 1 MMT to 798 MMT. However, the projection is still above the previous season’s 789 MMT.
• May SRW wheat futures are testing initial resistance at $5.42 1/2, which is backed by resistance at $5.50. Initial support lies at $5.30 1/4.

Live cattle are mixed in narrow trade, while feeders are marking moderate to strong gains.

• Nearby live cattle are mildly weaker as traders continue to wait for cash cattle trade to develop, which will likely remain limited today.
• Cash cattle trade has been nonexistent so far this week, with packers slow to establish bids and feedlots seeking higher prices. Given the slow start to cash negotiations and Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, active cash trade could be limited until after Friday’s report.
• Wholesale beef prices fell Wednesday, with Choice down $1.21 to $296.81, while Select dropped $1.76 to $290.88. Movement totaled 123 loads for the day.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 17,700 MT for 2024, up 30% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average. Exports of 16,700 MT were a marketing-year high.
• June live cattle are trading narrowly, capped by the 100-day moving average at $176.345 and the 20-day average at $176.405.

Lean hog futures are posting moderate- to heavy losses at midsession.

• Hog futures are extending Wednesday’s losses amid a fading techincal posture and disappointing weekly export sales.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 21,800 MT for 2024, a marketing-year low — down 54% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 38 cents to $91.36 as of April 16. The index has surged $26.31 on the seasonal rally since the beginning of the year and is nearly $20.00 above last year at this time.
• The pork cutout value was unchanged Wednesday at $99.55. Pork cutout has rallied $14.79 since the beginning of the year and is nearly $22.00 above last year.
• China imported 90,000 MT of pork in March, down 39% from last year. Through the first three months of this year, China imported 260,000 MT of pork, down 51.7% from the same period last year.
• June lean hogs gapped below the 40-day moving average of $102.25, which is now serving as resistance, while support is at $101.58 and $100.88.