First Thing Today | April 9, 2024

Good morning!

Grains weaker overnight... Corn, soybeans and wheat faced pressure during a lightly traded overnight session. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading a penny lower, soybeans are 3 to 4 cents lower, winter wheat markets are 6 to 9 cents lower and spring wheat is 4 to 6 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures are trading just above unchanged, while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points lower.

HRW CCI rating slips, SRW crop modestly improves... When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop slipped 0.1 point to 345.3 while the SRW crop improved 2.3 points to 373.8. CCI ratings are far above year-ago for HRW and slightly better for the SRW crop. Click here for details.

Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of April 7:

• Winter wheat: 56% good/excellent (56% last week); 6% headed (5% five-year average).
• Corn: 3% planted (2% average).
• Spring wheat: 3% planted (3% average).
• Cotton: 5% planted (6% average).

Cordonnier cuts Argentine corn crop estimate... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine corn crop estimate by 2 MMT to 53 MMT, noting heavy insect and disease pressure. Cordonnier kept his Argentine soybean crop forecast at 51 MMT. He also maintained his Brazilian crop estimates at 145 MMT for soybeans and 112 MMT for corn. Conab will update its official Brazilian crop estimates on Thursday morning.

One-quarter of Mato Grosso’s corn will go to ethanol production... The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimates the state’s corn production at 45.29 MMT this year, with 11.65 MMT (25.7%) expected to be utilized for ethanol production. Mato Grosso’s corn exports are projected to fall 18.2% from last year to 24.39 MMT, including 4.54 MMT to other Brazilian states.

Russia’s RIF halts ag exports from Azov terminal... One of Russia’s largest grain exporters RIF has halted the handling of agricultural goods at an Azov terminal, its owner told Reuters on Tuesday, amid a dispute with authorities that has slowed grain exports. The river terminal, which leads to the Azov Sea, handles around 15,000 MT of grains per day, or some 4 MMT annually. “(Our) operations are blocked, we can’t ship. RIF’s TD Terminal in Azov has stopped receiving and shipping agricultural products,” Petr Khodykin said. Russian agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor said last month there had been an increase in complaints from importing countries about the non-compliance of Russian grain quality with quarantine requirements, including supplies from TD RIF.

China’s Q1 EV sales growth slowest in nearly a year... Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in China rose 10.5% in March from the same month a year earlier, as automakers deepened discounts and offered financing tools to boost consumer purchases. New energy vehicles, including all-electric models and plug-in hybrids made up 41.5% of overall passenger car sales in March, which jumped 5.7% to 1.71 million vehicles. During the first quarter of 2024, EV sales totaled 1.03 million, up 14.7% from the same period last year – the slowest quarterly growth since the second quarter of 2023, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed.

Gold hits record high for eighth straight day... Gold prices posted a record high for an eighth consecutive day overnight on support from speculative buying and geopolitical tensions. Traders are waiting for the Fed monetary policy meeting minutes and U.S. consumer inflation data on Wednesday for fresh signals on the path of interest rates, which appears it will be higher for longer. Elevated interest rates usually constrain the appeal of holding non-yielding gold, but traders have been ignoring this factor. Spot silver prices hit their highest level since June 2021 during overnight trade.

ERP Phase 2 payments continue to edge higher... Payments under Phase 2 of the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) increased to $885.69 million as of April 7, up from $885.17 million the prior week. But the increase was not enough to adjust total ERP payments, which remained at $8.64 billion, including $7.75 billion of Phase 1 payouts.

Strong gains in wholesale beef prices... Wholesale beef prices jumped $4.90 for Choice and $5.57 for Select on Monday, hinting the market may be stabilizing after recent heavy price pressure. Both categories pushed above the $300.00 level, with Choice at $302.07 and Select at $300.27.

Strong day for wholesale pork, too... The pork cutout value firmed $2.58 on Monday, fueled by an $11.40 rise in primal bellies. The cutout topped $100.00 for the first time since September of last year. The CME lean hog index is up another 74 cents to $87.05 as of April 5.  

Overnight demand news... Japan is seeking 121,485 MT of milling wheat in it weekly tender.

See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.

Today’s reports

• No reports scheduled.