Market Snapshot | April 2, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing a second straight day of pressure despite supportive outside markets.
• Chinese customs have asked some traders to limit deliveries of foreign corn into bonded areas, in a move aimed at easing domestic oversupply and supporting prices for farmers before the planting season, Bloomberg reported.
• The ag attaché in Brazil lowered its 2023-24 Brazilian corn production forecast to 122 MMT, 2 MMT less than USDA’s official figure. It cut Brazil’s 2023-24 corn export forecast to 45 MMT, 7 MMT less than USDA’s March outlook. For 2024-25, the attaché projects Brazil’s corn production will rise 129 MMT and exports will rebound to 51 MMT.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn production estimates unchanged for both Brazil and Argentina at 112 MMT and 55 MMT, respectively. Cordonnier holds a neutral bias toward the Brazilian crop and neutral to slightly lower toward the Argentine crop.
• May corn is holding within last Thursday’s wide range, with support at $4.26. The confluence of the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading at $4.36 1/2, are solid resistance.

Soybean futures are mostly a nickel to 6 cents higher, while soymeal is around $2.00 lower. May soyoil is more than 100 points higher.

• Soybeans are easing from earlier highs as soymeal weakness weighs on the market. 
• Cordonnier left his soybean production estimates unchanged for both Brazil and Argentina, at 145 MMT and 51 MMT, respectively. He indicated a neutral bias toward Brazilian production and neutral to slightly lower bias for the Argentine crop.
• Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the third straight session amid short-covering and strength in Chicago soyoil and crude oil futures.
• May soybeans tested the 10-day moving average of $11.97 1/2, though psychological resistance at $12.00 continues to limit buying. Initial support lies at the 40-day moving average of $11.80 1/4.

SRW wheat is mostly 5 to 8 cents lower, while HRW is 9 to 11 cents lower. HRS is mostly 3 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are favoring the downside amid solid U.S. winter wheat crop ratings.   
• USDA rated 56% of the winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” the highest initial spring rating since 2019. When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 22.0 points from last fall to 345.4. The SRW crop slipped 0.1 points to 371.5, though that was 7.7 points above last year on this date. Click here for details.
• India has asked global and domestic trade houses to avoid buying new-crop wheat from local farmers to help the government-backed Food Corporation of India (FCI) procure large quantities to shore up its depleting reserves, sources told Reuters.
• May SRW wheat is consolidating between the 10- and 40-day moving averages of $5.51 3/4 and $5.63 3/4. Additional support/resistance is at the 20-day moving average of $5.45 1/2 and then $5.71 1/4.

Live cattle are moderately higher, while feeders are posting strong gains.

• Nearby live cattle are attempting to regain a portion of Monday’s sharp losses, though buyers remain hesitant in the wake of Monday’s news of the first human case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) tied to infected dairy cattle.
• USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed HPAI in a dairy herd in New Mexico, as well as five additional herds in Texas. To date, USDA has confirmed HPAI in dairy herds in Texas (7), Kansas (2), Michigan (1) and New Mexico (1). The presumptive positive test results for an Idaho herd are still pending.
• Wholesale boxed beef prices weakened Monday, with Choice dropping 98 cents to $305.74, while Select fell $1.64 to $301.79. Movement was light at only 77 loads.
• June live cattle are trading inside Monday’s sharply lower range as the 100-day moving average of $176.29 is initial resistance, which is backed by psychological resistance at $178.00. Initial support lies at the previous session’s low of $174.15.

Lean hog futures are mostly higher at midsession.

• April lean hog futures are holding near unchanged. June hogs scored a contract high amid followthrough buying after Monday’s gains.
• The CME lean hog index is up 18 cents to $84.78 as of March 29, marking a new high during the seasonal rally.
• The pork cutout value jumped $2.95 to $96.61, led by a near $12 gain in primal bellies. Movement totaled 219.01 loads.
• June lean hogs reached $104.80 this morning, which is initial resistance. Initial support lies at $102.64.