Market Snapshot | April 1, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 7 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are handing back a portion of Thursday’s gains on pressure from wheat and the U.S. dollar index.
• Areas of center-west and center-south Brazil received rains over the holiday weekend, improving soil moisture from Mato Grosso to Goais, northern Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. Partial relief from dryness is expected in Mato Grosso do Sul early this week with more during the middle to latter part of next week.
• Rains and snow are falling on areas of the central U.S. this morning, bringing needed moisture to some of the driest areas. However, forecasts indicate possible tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds in areas of Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri. Moisture is expected across the central U.S. this week, though the forecast is even wetter for next week.
• Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to total 440.5 million bu. in this afternoon’s Grain Crushings Report, which would be up 6.9 million bu. (1.6%) from January and 41.7 million bu. (10.5%) above last year.
• USDA reported export inspections of 1.432 MMT (56.4 million bu.) for the week ended March 28, which were up 176,370 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.375 MMT.
• May corn is trading within Friday’s wide range but has moved below the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $4.36 1/2 and the 40-day moving average of $4.35 1/4. Additional support is at $4.29 1/4. Initial resistance stands at Friday’s close of $4.42.

Soybean futures are mostly a nickel to 8 cents lower, while soymeal is around $5.00 lower. May soyoil is about 20 points higher.

• Soybeans have given up earlier gains, with spillover weakness stemming from corn and wheat.
• USDA is expected to show February soybean crush at 196.7 million bu., based on a Bloomberg survey. If realized, it would be up 1.9 million bu. (1.0%) from January and 19.8 million bu. (11.2%) above February 2023.
• Soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the U.S. fell to 960 million lbs. in January. That’s the first time it was below 1 billion lbs. since crossing that threshold in May of last year.
• AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean harvest was 74% complete as of last Thursday, behind last year’s rate of 76% at the same time a year ago.
• USDA reported export inspections of 414,484 MT (15.2 million bu.), which were down 370,632 MT from the previous week and below the pre-report range of 500,000 to 900,000 MT.
• May soybeans continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $11.96 3/4, which is backed by psychological resistance at $12.00. Initial support lies at the 40-day moving average of $11.80 1/4.

SRW wheat is mostly 5 to 7 cents lower, while HRW is around 11 to 14 cents lower. HRS is 5 to 10 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are being led lower by losses in HRW, with a surging U.S. dollar encouraging selling.
• Ukraine’s grain exports fell to around 5.2 MMT in March, down from 5.8 MMT in February, according to agriculture ministry data. The country’s grain exports in the 2023-24 marketing-year have fallen to around 34.9 MMT, down from 38 MMT a year earlier.
• Russian wheat export prices rose for the third week in a row, with analysts pointing to increased weather risks to the new crop.
• Saudi Arabia’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) purchased 795,000 MT of milling wheat with 12.5% protein content in a tender for June-July delivery.
• USDA reported export inspections of 498,989 MT (18.3 million bu.) for the week ended March 28, which rose 66,225 MT from the previous week and were above the pre-report range of 275,000 to 425,000 MT.
• May SRW wheat is trading between the 10- and 40-day moving averages of $5.49 3/4 and $5.65, with additional support/resistance at $5.45 1/2 and $5.71.

Live cattle are slightly firmer, while feeders are posting moderate- to strong gains.

• Nearby live cattle have rebounded from earlier lows to post mild gains, though technical resistance continues to limit buying.
• A highly virulent bird flu initially found in dairy cows in Texas and Kansas has spread to herds in five states. The strain has been confirmed in Michigan, with presumptive positive tests in Idaho and New Mexico. There’s evidence suggesting the virus may be transmitted from cow to cow.
• Choice boxed beef dropped $1.64 Friday to $306.72, while Select rose $2.26 to $303.43, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $3.29. Movement totaled 114 loads for the day.
• June live cattle continue to face resistance at the 200-day moving average of $180.70, while support is at $178.48 and $176.72.  

Lean hog futures are sharply higher at midsession.

• April hogs are extending last week’s strength despite bearish data in USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report.
• Last Thursday’s report showed nearly all categories above the average pre-report estimates. USDA estimated the March 1 hog herd up 0.6% from year-ago, with the market hog inventory 0.8% larger, while the breeding herd declined 2.1%. The winter pig crop rose 1.9%. Winter farrowings declined 2.6% but litter size jumped 4.6% to a record 11.53 head.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 39 cents to $84.64 as of March 27.
• The pork cutout value fell 86 cents Friday to $93.66, led by a $10 drop in primal bellies.
• April lean hogs have risen to a near one-month high, though resistance around $87.84 is limiting a move higher, while initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $85.84 and is backed by the 20-day moving average of $85.46.