Posted on 02/10/2019 2:34 PM

Thursday is deadline for farmers to apply for Market Facilitation Program payments

 


Lawmakers must reach a homeland security deal to avoid a shutdown after Feb. 15, despite GOP Senate leaders' insistence there will not be another shutdown. Weekend talks saw some progress, but also some snags — Democrats and Republicans are disagreeing over the number of detention beds at the border that would be set up. So late-breaking news on this is likely, unless the current impasse remains. An agreement is hoped for, especially as Congress is slated to be out next week.
     Two U.S. trade delegations will be in Beijing this week on ongoing trade policy talks.
     Thursday is the deadline for eligible farmers to apply for Market Facilitation Program payments. Farmers have until May 1 to certify their 2018 production.

 

 

What looked like a coming announcement on a spending agreement hit weekend snags over various issues dealing with border security. Sessions on a possible accord continued Sunday and will likely continue early Monday. But time is running out for Congress to vote on any agreement by the deadline Friday, unless there is a short-term continuing resolution, something lawmakers want to avoid, as they do another government shutdown.

 

     President Trump on Sunday accused Democratic leaders of stymieing the efforts of their congressional negotiators to reach a budget deal and avert another government shutdown. “I don’t think the Dems on the Border Committee are being allowed by their leaders to make a deal. They are offering very little money for the desperately needed Border Wall & now, out of the blue, want a cap on convicted violent felons to be held in detention!” Trump tweeted Sunday.

 

     Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney invited a group of lawmakers to Camp David for talks this weekend, but Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the chief Republican negotiator, said during an interview on Fox News Sunday that the negotiations have stalled. “I’m not confident we’re going to get there,” he said, predicting there is a “50-50” chance a deal is reached.

 

     The agreement if it comes is expected to include spending deals for other agencies besides Homeland Security, including USDA. It will also likely include a multibillion-dollar disaster aid package and perhaps an extension for the lapsed biodiesel tax incentive program.

 

     Congress is out next week, and people are going to want to get away for Valentine's Day—- which is Thursday —and the long President's Day weekend.


In the House, besides a possible spending deal to keep the government open the remainder of fiscal year 2019, which ends Sept. 30, lawmakers will consider bills under suspension of the rules and HJRes 37, which would direct the president to withdraw U.S. armed forces from the conflict in Yemen.

 

     Changes to the House schedule are expected to accommodate lawmakers attending funeral services for former Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.), whose visitation will be held Monday, and his funeral Tuesday in Dearborn, Michigan. A second funeral service will be Thursday at 10:30 a.m. in Washington at Holy Trinity Catholic Church.

 

     Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) is expected to introduce a bill in the House to remove or raise the new tax law’s limit on state and local tax deductions — even though the Senate has no plans to consider the proposal.

 

The Senate resumes consideration of S 47, a lands package measure that would resurrect the Land and Water Conservation Fund, which expired Sept. 30, and make it permanent.

 

White House announces trade delegations to Beijing. U. S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing for “principal-level meetings” that will take place from Feb. 14 through Feb. 15, 2019, the White House said in a statement. The top U.S. trade duo will confer with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. These meetings will be preceded by deputy-level negotiations that will begin on Feb. 11, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish.

 

     The key to this week's talks is what Lighthizer and Mnuchin report back to President Trump and whether or not that will clear the way for a meeting of Trump with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump said last week he would not likely meet with Xi prior to the self-imposed March 1 deadline for a trade and economic policy agreement.

 

Economic updates for the week include:

 

     Tuesday:
     — NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. Expectations are for a 103 reading, down from December’s 104.4.
     — JOLTS: Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary for December. Economists forecast a seven million reading, up from November’s 6.9 million.

     Wednesday:
     — MBA Mortgage Applications
     — BLS reports the Consumer Price Index for January. Consensus estimates are for a year-over-year rise of 1.5%, down from December’s 1.9% from a seven-year high of 2.9% at the beginning of last summer. Excluding volatile food and energy, the CPI is expected to rise 2.1%, compared with December’s 2.2%.
     — Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
     — Treasury Budget

Thursday:
     — Jobless Claims
     — BLS releases its Producer Price Index for January. Expectations are for a 0.1% rise after a fall of 0.2% in December. Excluding food and energy, the index is seen rising 0.2% after declining by 0.1% in December.
     — Retail Sales
     — Census Bureau reports data on Business Inventories for November. Economists forecast a 0.3% rise to $2.04 trillion, after gaining to 0.6%, to $1.98 trillion, in October.
     — Fed Balance Sheet

Friday:
     — Empire State Mfg Survey
     — BLS reports Import and Export Prices for January. Prices are expected to decline by 0.2% for both export and import. This compares with declines of 0.6% and 1% in December.
     — Industrial Production
     — University of Michigan reports its Consumer Sentiment Survey for February. Consensus estimates call for a rebound to 94 from January’s 91.2.

 

Fed speakers on tap:

 

     Tuesday:
     — Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to deliver a speech on "Charting America's Economic Course" at the Kansas City Public Library in Kansas City.
     — Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to deliver a speech about economic outlook and monetary policy at the Xavier University and Financial Executives International Cincinnati Chapter meeting in Cincinnati, Ohio.
     Wednesday:
     — Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks to the European Financial Forum on economic outlook and monetary policy in Dublin, Ireland.
     — Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester speaks about economic outlook and monetary policy at the Gatton College of Business and Economics 2019 Economic Outlook Conference in Lexington, Ky.
     Friday:
     — Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to deliver a speech to the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama on "Workforce Development" in Birmingham, Alabama.

 

Key USDA and international agriculture and energy-related reports and events on tap:

 

Monday, Feb. 11

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Feed Grains Database
  • Dairy Monthly Tables & Dairy Quarterly Data
  • Wheat data
  • National Ethanol Conference Feb. 11-13, Orlando, Florida
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) releases data on palm oil stocks, exports and production as of end-Jan.
  • AmSpec: Malaysia’s Feb. 1-10 palm oil exports
  • SGS releases Malaysia’s Feb. 1-10 palm oil exports data

Tuesday, Feb. 12

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC report (backdated)
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Feed Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook
  • Brazil’s Conab releases 5th report on 2018-19 grain crop

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • OPEC monthly oil market report published, including demand forecasts and OPEC January production estimates
  • EIA’s STEO report

Wednesday, Feb. 13

     Ag reports and events:

  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
  • Season Average Price Forecast
  • Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Bureau (CIRB) annual meeting, through Friday, San Diego.
  • National Council of Farmer Cooperatives annual meeting, through Friday, Scottsdale, Ariz.
  • Arkansas State University Agribusiness Conference
  • French agriculture ministry estimates for 2019 winter cereals and rapeseed
  • China soybean import volume data for Jan., 9 p.m. CT; 11 a.m. Thursday Beijing

     Energy reports and events:

  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • IEA monthly Oil Market Report, including demand forecasts

Thursday, Feb. 14

     Ag reports and events:

  • Market Facilitation Program (MFP): Deadline to apply for payments to farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs. Soybean growers have been primary recipients of payouts; top five states where farmers have applied for aid are Ill., Iowa, Kan., Minn. and Nebraska. Farmers have until May 1 to certify their 2018 production.
  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
  • Agricultural Baseline Database & Agricultural Baseline Report
  • Sugar Outlook
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • BP publishes annual Energy Outlook
  • API Monthly Statistical Report

Friday, Feb. 15

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts (backdated)
  • Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade
  • FranceAgriMer expected to resume weekly crop reports

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 

Other reports and events this week include:

 

Monday, Feb. 11

  • Japan’s financial markets are closed for National Foundation Day.
  • U.S. and China will hold deputy-level negotiations on trade in Beijing. Those talks will be followed by meetings with U.S. Trade Rep. Bob Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
  • President Trump holds a rally in El Paso, Texas. The president mentioned El Paso in his State of the Union address on Feb. 5; he said crime fell there after a border barrier was erected.
  • President Trump is interviewed by Laura Ingraham of Fox.
  • Norfolk Southern hosts an investor and financial analyst conference in Atlanta to discuss its new strategic plan.
  • USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue will be in North Carolina to meet with hog producers, tour a Butterball turkey processing plant, and hold a town hall at University of Mount Olive in Mount Olive, N.C., to highlight the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Tuesday, Feb. 12

  • President Trump holds a Cabinet meeting.
  • FDA. House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee hearing with FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb.
  • Sanctions and foreign policy. House Financial Services Committee hearing on the use of sanctions in addressing national security and foreign policy challenges.
  • Weatherization assistance. House Appropriations panel’s Energy and Water Development Subcommittee oversight hearing on Dept. of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program.
  • Climate science. House Science Committee hearing examining on the “State of Climate Science and Why it Matters.
  • Climate change. House Panel on Natural Resources Subcommittee hearing on “Climate Change: Preparing for the Energy Transition.”
  • Capital markets. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce and CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz discuss “The Year Ahead for Capital Markets.”
  • Global financial market risks. Treasury Dept.’s Ken Phelan takes part in American Enterprise Institute discussion on global financial market risks.
  • Impacts of partial gov't shutdown. House Appropriations Committee hearing into HUD Dept.’s management of housing contracts during the shutdown.
  • Prescription drug prices. House Ways and Means Committee hearing examining "The Cost of Rising Prescription Drug Prices.”

Wednesday, Feb. 13

  • Colombia. President Trump and first lady Melania Trump welcome President Ivan Duque Marquez and first lady Maria Juliana Ruiz Sandoval of Colombia to the White House.
  • Infrastructure. Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee hearing to review America’s infrastructure needs.
  • Impact of partial gov't shutdown on transportation. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee will hear from transportation stakeholders affected by the partial gov't shutdown. An increase in unpaid air traffic controllers calling out sick forced the temporary closure of New York’s LaGuardia airport Jan. 25, contributing to Trump’s decision that day to end the partial shutdown. Panel Chairman Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) is circulating a draft bill to take FAA off-budget to protect the agency from a future shutdown.
  • T-Mobile-Spring merger. House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing on the planned T-Mobile-Sprint merger.
  • Small Business Administration. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee hearing: "Oversight of the U.S. Small Business Administration.”
  • Invasive species threat. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “the Invasive Species Threat: Protecting Wildlife, Public Health, and Infrastructure.”
  • Homeless crisis. House Financial Services Committee hearing examines the homeless crisis.
  • Tax reform. House Ways and Means Committee holds its first hearing examining the GOP tax law since Democrats have regained control of the chamber.
  • Cannabis-related businesses. House Financial Service subcommittee hearing reviews access to banking services for cannabis-related businesses.
  • Venezuela. Elliott Abrams, U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela, State Dept., testifies at House Foreign Affairs hearing: “Venezuela at a Crossroads.”

Thursday, Feb. 14

  • Market Facilitation Program (MPP) deadline to apply for payments to farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs. Soybean growers have been primary recipients of payouts; top five states where farmers have applied for aid are Ill., Iowa, Kan., Minn. and Nebraska. Farmers have until May 1 to certify their 2018 production.
  • Nominations. Senate Banking Committee considers the nomination of Mark Calabria to be the director of Federal Housing Finance Agency; Bimal Patel to be an assistant secretary of the Treasury.

Friday, Feb. 15

  • Stopgap spending bill expires, when the government will again partially shutdown in the absence of an agreement between Congress and the president.
  • Supreme Court: The court could announce it will hear arguments on a fast-track basis on the Trump administration’s bid to add a citizenship question on the 2020 census.
  • Vice President Mike Pence, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are among the participants at the Munich Security Conference; through Feb. 17.

 


 

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