Market Snapshot | March 26, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are a penny to 3 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are favoring the downside amid a general risk-off tone across commodities.
  • South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn estimates unchanged for both Brazil and Argentina, at 112 MT and 55 MMT, respectively. He indicated a neutral/lower bias for Brazil and neutral/slightly lower bias for Argentina as he awaits damage assessments from last week’s flooding in east-central production areas.
  • World Weather Inc. reports Brazil’s southwest will continue to be generally dry through the weekend, including Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Drying is also expected in Rio Grande do Sul, but that will be welcome contrary to the areas noted above that are already a little too dry.
  • May corn is trading sideways in consolidative trade, mostly between resistance at $4.40 1/4 and support at the 20-day moving average of $4.35 1/2.

 

Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 8 cents lower, while soymeal is about $1.00 lower. May soyoil is around 50 points lower.

  • Soybeans are under pressure, though technical support is currently limiting losses from becoming sharper.
  • Cordonnier kept his Brazilian and Argentine soybean estimates unchanged at 145 MMT and 51 MMT, respectively. Cordonnier indicated a neutral/lower bias toward the Brazilian crop and neutral/slightly lower for the Argentine crop.
  • Argentina crops will remain favorably rated except in the flooded areas of the southeast where conditions are expected to steadily improve, according to World Weather.
  • May soybeans are trading within Monday’s range, with support at the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages of $11.98 3/4, $11.82 3/4 and $11.80 1/4, respectively. The previous session high of $12.10 is serving as initial resistance.

 

Winter wheat futures are mostly 9 to 10 cents lower, while HRS is around 7 to 8 cents lower.

  • Wheat futures are extending losses as traders take profits ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports.  
  • State-level winter wheat condition ratings signaled more general improvement in the HRW crop over the past month, despite a minor downtick in top producer Kansas. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved another 1.5 points from the end of February to 351.7 and stood 28.4 points above USDA’s final national rating at the end of November. Click here for full details.
  • U.S. crop weather still looks to be favorable, although some winterkill has occurred this year in the northwestern Plains, with yield loss possibly in other areas, like the Tennessee River Basin from last week’s freezes, notes World Weather. Freezes coming up this next week should not have a big impact on Midwest or Plains crops, although it will be closely monitored.
  • May SRW wheat is pivoting around the 20-day moving average of $5.48 1/4, with support at the 10-day of $5.45 1/4 being tested. Resistance stands at $5.57 1/4, then at the 40-day moving average of $5.69 1/4.

 

Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle are posting the largest daily decline since early December as technicals weaken despite recent cash cattle strength. 
  • Cash cattle prices averaged $189.56 last week, up $2.09 from the previous week and 81 cents above the previous high from June 2023.
  • Whoelsale beef values rose 17 cents to $310.89 Monday, while Select gained 49 cents to $301.96. Movement totaled 108 loads.
  • April live cattle violated several support levels and fell to the lowest intraday level in nearly two months. Next support is at the 100-day moving average of $179.95, while the 40-day moving average of $186.42 serves as initial resistance.

 

Lean hog futures are moderately firmer at midsession.

  • April hogs are extending Monday’s moderate gains amid wholesale strength. Traders are extending the premium to the cash index after recently tightening it.  
  • The CME lean hog index is down 12 cents to $83.48 as of March 22, only the seventh daily decline since the seasonal rally started at the beginning of the year.
  • The pork cutout value rose $2.36 to $95.74, led by a $13 gain in primal bellies. Movement totaled 274.9 loads for the day.
  • China had 40.42 million sows at the end of February, down 0.6% from January and 6.9% less than last year, the ag ministry said. The number of pigs slaughtered in February fell 6.9% from last year to 21.04 million head, a 43.5% drop from January.
  • April lean hogs are supported by the 10- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $85.51 and $85.49. Resistance stands at $86.45.

 

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