Market Snapshot | March 14, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are trading near the session low despite supportive demand news as followthrough selling in wheat and gains in the U.S. dollar weigh on prices.
• USDA reported daily corn sales of 100,000 MT to Mexico for 2023-24.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 1.28 MMT during the week ended March 7, which were up 16% from the previous week and 19% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the top end of the pre-report range of estimates from 800,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts 2024-25 global corn production at 1.233 billion metric tons, up 6 MMT from 2023-24.
• Safrinha corn areas in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil and northern Paraguay will see little rain into the middle of next week and stress to the crop should rise as temps will often be hot amid short soil moisture, states World Weather Inc. Areas in western and central Mato Grosso have short soil moisture and need soaking rains during the next few weeks before the dry season begins.
• May corn failed to find sustained buying above the 40-day moving average of $4.40 3/4 for the third straight session. Support lies at the 10-day moving average of $4.34 1/4.

Soybean futures are 2 to 6 cents higher, while soymeal is around $1.00 higher. May soyoil is about 25 points higher.

• Soybeans are higher for the third straight session but have retreated from earlier highs in step with soymeal.
• USDA reported soybean export sales of 376,000 MT, which were down 39% from the previous week but up 55% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low end of the pre-report range of expectations from 250,000 to 800,000 MT.
• World Weather Inc. reports Argentina rainfall should be abundant over the next week to 10 days, which will bode well for late-season crops.
• May soybeans traded to the highest intraday level since Feb. 2, though resistance at $12.19 1/2 dampened buying efforts. Initial support lies at the 40-day moving average of $11.88 3/4.

SRW and HRW wheat are mostly 12 to 13 cents lower, while HRS is mostly 7 to 9 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are deepening Wednesday’s losses amid adequate global supplies and U.S. dollar strength.
• USDA reported weekly wheat export sales of 83,800 MT, which notched a marketing-year low and were down 69% from the previous week and 71% from the four-week average. USDA reported reductions of 120,100 MT to China, which were know via daily sales cancellations announcements. There were also sales reductions of 169,000 MT to unknown destinations. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of (200,000) to 550,000 MT.
• Chinese importers have cancelled or postponed about 1 MMT of Australian wheat cargoes, trade sources with direct knowledge of the deals told Reuters. Some of the total was washed out, while other cargoes were delayed from first quarter to delivery later this year.
• Russian ag consultancy IKAR expects Russia’s 2024 grain crop to total 147 MMT, including 93 MMT of wheat, Russian news agency Interfax reported.
• Strategie Grains cut its 2024 EU wheat crop forecast due mainly to impacts from excessively wet weather. The France-based consultancy now expects EU soft wheat production to total 121.6 MMT, down 1 MMT from its prior forecast and 3.3% from last year.
• The International Grain Council (IGC) forecasts global wheat production for 2024-25 at 799 MMT, up 10 MMT from 2023-24.
• May SRW dropped below support at $5.36, with additional support at $5.32 3/4. Initial resistance remains at the 10-day moving average of $5.44 1/4.

Live cattle are facing heavy selling, while feeders are posting even larger losses.

• Nearby live cattle are under heavy pressure following an earlier reach to the highest level since Oct. 20.
• Only light cash cattle trade has taken place in the negotiated market so far this week at slightly weaker prices. Packers continue to drag out negotiations while feedlots are positioned to wait on steady/firmer prices.
• Choice boxed beef prices slid 77 cents Wednesday to $309.82, while Select rose $1.44 to $301.04, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $8.78. Movement totaled 105 loads for the day.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 11,200 MT for 2024, which was a marketing-year low. Net sales were down 20% from the previous week and 19% from the four-week average.
• April live cattle traded at the highest intraday level since Oct. 20 before reversing lower. Resistance is at $190.60, while initial support lies at $186.55.

Lean hogs are modestly weaker at midsession.

• April hog futures are modestly weaker in consolidative trade as the marketplace continues to closely watch the relationship to the cash index. 
• The CME lean hog index is up another 41 cents to $82.02 as of March 12, extending the seasonal price climb.
• The pork cutout value fell 51 cents Thursday to $91.96 amid a drop in all cuts expect primal ribs and hams. Movement totaled 272.1 loads.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 24,900 MT for 2024, down 32% from the previous week and 24% from the four-week average.
• April lean hogs are trading narrowly withing Wednesday’s range in consolidative trade between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $85.10 and $83.70.