Market Snapshot | March 7, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are extending Wednesday’s gains as traders prepare for USDA’s supply and demand update on Friday.
  • USDA reported corn export sales of 1.11 MMT for the week ended Feb. 29, which were up 3% from the previous week, and unchanged from the four-week average. Corn export sales have topped 1 MMT for six of the past eight weeks, averaging 1.119 MMT during that span.
  • Mexico is waiting for the U.S. to prove imported genetically modified (GM) corn is safe for Mexicans, said Deputy Agriculture Secretary Victor Suarez, as a dispute between the two countries plays out under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
  • May corn pushed above the 20-day moving average around $4.30 1/4 for the first time since early December. Next resistance is at $4.37 1/4, backed by the 40-day moving average of $4.43 1/2. Support is at the 10-day moving average of $4.26.

 

Soybean futures are mostly 8 to 11 cents higher, while soymeal is around $1.50 higher. May soyoil is about 90 points higher.

  • Soybeans are posting moderate gains amid short-covering.
  • USDA reported net soybean sales of 613,500 MT during the week ended Feb. 29, up notably from the previous week and the four-week average. Sales were above the expected pre-report range of 175,000 to 600,000 MT.
  • May soybean imports to China fell to a five-year low for the first two months of the year, weighed down by poor crushing margins and fewer ship arrivals during the Lunar New Year holiday. Imports for January and February combined totaled 13.04 MMT, down 8.8% from the same period a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs.
  • May soybeans are facing resistance at the 20-day moving average of $11.64 1/2, while initial support lies at $11.49 1/4.

 

SRW wheat is mostly around 4 cents higher, while HRS is 14 to 18 cents higher. HRS is around 12 to 13 cents higher.

  • HRW wheat is leading the complex higher, while SRW is struggling to find active buying following confirmation of cancellations from China.
  • USDA reported SRW export sales cancellations of 130,000 MT to China for delivery for 2023-24.
  • USDA reported wheat sales of 353,137 MT during the week ended Feb. 29, down 17% from the previous week and 16% from the four-week average. Net sales were just above the expected pre-report range of 250,000 to 550,000 MT.
  • Overnight, Taiwan tendered to buy 56,400 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Egypt canceled its wheat tender.
  • May SRW dropped to a contract low before rebounding. Support is at the new low of $5.28 1/2, while initial resistance stands at $5.45 1/4.

 

Live cattle are posting modest gains, while feeders are weaker.

  • Nearby live cattle continue to consolidate as market participants wait for further cash trade developments.
  • Estimated slaughter averaged less than 121,000 head per day through the first three days this week, totaling just 362,000 head. That’s down 100,000 head from last week and 13,614 head from year-ago. Cash sources expect this week’s slaughter to decline around 30,000 head from last year as packers continue to closely manage inventories amid negative margins.
  • Wholesale beef values rose Wednesday, with Choice gaining 12 cents to $304.91, while Select rose 22 cents to $295.09. Movement totaled 108 loads.
  • April live cattle are trading narrowly sideways, mostly above the 10-day moving average of $187.245, which is backed by the 20-day moving average of $186.77. Initial resistance stands at $187.83.

 

Lean hogs are mixed with an upside bias at midsession.

  • Nearby April hog futures are modestly weaker as traders continue to narrow the premium to the cash index.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 44 cents to $81.31. A declining premium vs. April futures indicates traders expect a less-than-average increase in the cash index from now until mid-April.
  • The pork cutout value rose a modest 6 cents to $91.49 on Wednesday, while movement totaled 277.3 loads.
  • China imported 1.101 MMT of meat during the first two months of 2024, down 197,000 MT (15.2%) from the same period last year. China does not break down meat imports by category in the preliminary data, though pork accounts for the bulk of the incoming shipments.
  • April lean hogs continue to hover mostly above the 20-day moving average of $84.93, while the 10-day moving average of $86.12 continues to curb buying efforts.

 

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