Market Snapshot | February 22, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Note: Due to Monday’s government holiday, USDA’s export sales data for the week ended Feb. 15 will be released Friday morning.

 

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower.

  • Corn futures have given up earlier strength, weighed down by selling in soybean and soymeal futures and fading gains in the wheat complex.
  • USDA reported daily sorghum sales of 126,000 MT to China for 2023-24.
  • Ethanol production averaged 1.084 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Feb. 16, up 1,000 bpd from the previous week and 55,000 bpd (5.3%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 308,000 barrels to 25.502 million barrels.
  • March corn dropped to a contract low of $4.07 1/2, with support at $4.04 and the psychological $4.00 mark. Resistance stands at $4.17.

 

Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents lower, while May soymeal is around $4.00 lower. May soyoil is about 30 points higher.

  • Soybeans continue to face technical challenges and weakness from soymeal losses, with nearby futures pushing to a near nine-month low.
  • World Weather Inc. reports northeastern Brazil will be a little too wet, while interior southern and southwestern areas of the country will dry down for a little longer, despite a few showers.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower overnight, weighed down by profit-taking, weakness in export performance and absence of fresh buying support.
  • March soybeans fell to the lowest level since May 31, with support now at $11.52 1/4. Initial resistance stands at $11.65 3/4.

 

SRW wheat futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower, while HRW and HRS futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures have fallen from earlier highs, limited by overhead technicals and tepid supply/demand fundamentals.
  • U.S. crop areas will face a short-term bout of much colder weather, though winterkill is not very likely despite temps expected to drop below zero Fahrenheit in the Northern Plains. Snowfall will accompany the cold air, but strong winds may leave a few crop areas free of significant snow cover, according to World Weather.
  • Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said there was no need to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the border to defuse a farmer blockade that has disrupted shipments from Ukraine.
  • Overnight, Japan purchased 115,921 MT of milling wheat, including 30,435 MT U.S., 51,586 MT Canadian and 33,900 MT Australian. South Korea tendered to buy 136,400 MT of milling wheat, 50,000 MT from the U.S., 50,000 MT from Australia and 36,400 MT from Canada. Tunisia tendered to buy 100,000 MT optional origin soft milling wheat.
  • March SRW futures briefly poked above the 10-day moving average of $5.83 3/4 for the first time in six sessions, though the level continues to serve up resistance, backed by the 20-day moving average of $5.96. Initial support lies at $5.72 1/2.

 

Live cattle are posting slight to moderate gains, while feeders are sharply higher at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle are posting solid followthrough gains to a four-month high amid underlying bullish fundamentals.
  • Estimated slaughter totaled 349,000 head through the first three days of this week, 14,000 head below last week and 4,247 head below year-ago. Cash sources expect the weekly tally to fall below 600,000 head, with some as low as 590,000 as packers try to control tight supplies amid highly negative margins.
  • Choice boxed beef rose 43 cents Wednesday to $297.80, while Select fell $3.36 to $284.46, widening the Choice/Select spread to $13.34. Movement totaled 105 loads.
  • April live cattle rose to the highest level since Oct. 23, with initial resistance at the session high of $189.175, while support remains at $186.68.

 

Lean hogs are sharply higher at midmorning.

  • Hog futures are posting strong gains amid strengthening cash fundamentals.
  • The CME lean hog index rose another $1.17 to $77.97 as of Feb. 20, marking back-to-back days of $1.00-plus gains.
  • The pork cutout value plunged $2.27 to $90.17 Wednesday, amid hefty drops in primal bellies, ribs and hams. Movement totaled 254.6 loads.
  • April lean hogs moved to a near eight-month high, with next resistance at the June 26 high of $89.025, while support lies at $85.875.

 

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