Market Snapshot | February 20, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny lower at midsession.

• Corn has given up earlier strength amid selling in crude oil futures and easing gains across the soy complex.
• USDA reported daily corn sales of 155,000 MT to Japan during 2023-24.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates unchanged at 112 MMT and 54 MMT, respectively. Cordonnier noted a lower bias toward the Brazilian crop and neutral to lower bias for the Argentine crop.
• Safrinha corn planting in center-south Brazil is at the fastest pace on record going back to 2013, with 59% of the projected area seeded as of last Thursday.
• Argentina will experience net drying over most areas of the country this week, with some rains expected in southern and western areas late in the week, though better rainfall changes are in the forecast for next week, notes World Weather Inc.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 918,610 MT (36.2 million bu.) during the week ended Feb. 15, up 26,275 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.05 MMT.
• March corn is trading within Friday’s range, with the previous session high of $4.21 1/2 serving as initial resistance, while support lies at $4.15.

Soybean futures are mostly a penny to 3 cents higher, while March soymeal is around $3.00 higher. March soyoil is about 65 points lower.

• Soybeans have pulled back from earlier highs amid selling in soyoil futures.
• USDA reported daily soybean meal sales of 228,000 MT to the Philippines during 2023-24.
• Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean estimate another 2 MMT to 145 MMT, noting a neutral to lower bias going forward. He left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 50.0 MMT and indicated a neutral to lower bias.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 32% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, above the 25% seen at the same time last year.
• Brazil is expected to see generally favorable weather over the next two weeks, though conditions could be too wet in some northeastern areas of the country, according to World Weather.
• Argentina’s Parana River remains snarled even after a vessel that ran aground near the waterway’s main channel was freed after being stuck for several days, local authorities said.
• USDA reported soybean export inspections 1.19 MMT (43.6 million bu.), down 156,201 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.45 MMT.
• March soybeans gapped higher overnight and tested the 10-day moving average of $11.82 3/4, though resistance at $11.88 slowed buying efforts. Support is at last Friday’s high of $11.73 3/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 8 to 11 cents higher, while HRS futures are chopping around unchanged.

• Winter wheat futures are being led higher by corrective gains in HRW contracts, while a weaker U.S. dollar bolsters strength.
• HRW wheat growing areas of the U.S. will continue to miss rains through at least Sunday, notes World Weather, while persistent unusual warmth could lead to more greening of winter wheat as the soil warms, especially in southeastern production areas.
• USDA reported wheat export inspections of 380,774 MT (14.0 million bu.), down 26,750 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
• March SRW futures carved a fresh low overnight at $5.55 1/4, which is initial support, while resistance stands at $5.78.

Live cattle and feeders are higher, with feeders leading gains.

• Live cattle are cautiously higher following strong gains at the end of last week.
• Cash cattle averaged $180.35 last week, down 80 cents from the previous week, snapping a four-week string of gains.
• Choice boxed beef rose 90 cents Friday to $296.20, while Select slid $1.33 lower to $286.66. Movement totaled 108 loads.
• April live cattle are trading narrowly within Friday’s upper range, with resistance at $188.124, while initial support is at the 10-day moving average of $185.93.

Lean hogs are slightly higher at midmorning.

• Hog futures are being mildly supported by continued strength in the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index rose 17 cents Monday to $75.29 and picked up another 46 cents today to $75.75 as of Feb. 16. The nearly $10.00 premium to April futures is limiting buyer interest in the lead contract.
• The pork cutout value rose 78 cents to $90.57 on Friday, the highest level since Oct. 9.
• April lean hogs gapped higher at the open and have traded the highest level since June 28, with resistance at today’s high of $87.10, while support is at last Friday’s high of $85.65.