Market Snapshot | February 15, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower at midsession.

• Corn futures fell to a fresh contract low despite supportive outside markets.   
• USDA’s initial look at 2024-25, based on January WASDE data, projects 91.0 million corn acres and harvested acres of 83.1 million. A national average yield of 181.0 bu. per acre would produce a 15.040 billion bu. crop. Carryover is projected at 2.532 billion bushels (17.2% stocks: use).
• USDA reported corn export sales of 1.31 MMT during the week ended Feb. 8, up 7% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the top end of the pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2023-24 global corn production by 4 MMT to 1.234 billion metric tons. But it also raised use. That pulled projected ending stocks down 1 MMT from last month.
• Argentina will experience net drying for the next 8 to 9 days, although some rain will fall in the far west late next week, notes World Weather Inc.
• March corn posted a fresh contract low at $4.21. Support is at $4.20 1/2, while $4.25 is initial resistance.

Soybean futures are mostly 4 to 9 cents lower, while March soymeal is more than $1.00 lower. March soyoil is about 50 points lower.

• Soybeans continue to face notable overhead resistance, which has pressed futures to an 8.5 month low.
• USDA projects 2024-25 soybean acres of 87.5 million, with harvested acres at 86.6 million. A national average yield of 52.0 bu. per acre would result in a crop of 4.505 billion bu. Carryover is projected to rise to 435 million bushels (9.9% stocks: use).
• USDA reported soybean export sales of 353,800 MT for the week ended Feb. 8, up 4% from the previous week but down 23% from the four-week average. Sales were near the low end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 800,000 MT.
• Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 189.9 million bu. of soybeans in January. If realized, that would be down 2.8% from the all-time record in December, but up 6.1% from year-ago and the largest tally for the month. Soyoil stocks are expected to have totaled 1.409 billion pounds at the end of January.
• Northern Brazil has been benefiting from drier weather the past few days, but a more active weather pattern is in the near-term forecast.
• March soybeans have slid to the lowest level since June 1. Support is at $11.62 1/2, while resistance stands at $11.76 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents lower, while HRS is mostly 1 to 3 cents higher.

• Winter wheat futures are posting followthrough weakness but have rebounded from earlier lows amid support from a weaker U.S. dollar.
• USDA projects 2024-25 wheat planted acreage of 47.0 million, with harvested acres at 86.6 million. A national average yield of 49.5 would produce a 1.900 billion bu. crop. Carryover is projected at 769 million bushels (40.3% stocks: use).
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 349,300 MT for the week ended Feb. 8, down 8% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average.
• March SRW futures have found support at the Jan. 18 low of $5.73 1/4, backed by $5.66 1/2. Resistance is layered in at the 10-, 20-, 100- and 40-day moving averages from $5.93 1/2 to $6.03 1/4.

Live cattle are mixed while feeders are marking moderate to sharp losses.

• Live cattle are trading lower for the fourth consecutive session, though selling efforts are being limited by notable technical support.
• USDA projected beef production of 26.19 billion lbs., down 3% from 2023. Exports are projected to total 2.785 billion lbs., down 8.3% from last year.
• Cash cattle began trading at mostly $2.00 lower prices in the Southern Plains Wednesday afternoon. Additional cash trade is expected at lower prices, breaking the four-week string of gains.
• Choice boxed beef rose $1.73 to $294.00 on Wednesday, while Select fell $1.28 to $284.02, widening the Choice/Select spread to $9.98. Movement totaled 99 loads.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 16,600 MT for 2024, down 19% from the previous week and 18% from the four-week average.
• April live cattle spiked support at $182.42. Additional support is at the 20-day moving average of $182.40. Resistance stands at the 200- and 10-day moving averages of $184.45 and $184.84.

Lean hogs are posting solid gains at midsession.

• Hog futures are extending Wednesday’s sharp gains, with strong export sales providing support.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 71,900 MT for 2024, up 83% from the previous week and the most for a week since October 2019.
• USDA projects U.S. pork production to total 27.88 billion lbs. this year, up about 2% from last year. Exports are expected to rise 3.8% to 7.080 billion pounds.
• The CME lean hog index is up 48 cents to $74.60 as of Feb. 13, extending the seasonal price rebound.
• The pork cutout value fell $1.25 to $85.91, led lower by primal hams. Movement totaled 287.6 loads for the day.
• April lean hogs gapped higher at the open but stopped shy of resistance at the Jan. 30 high of $85.925. Support lies at today’s low of $84.65.