Market Snapshot | February 14, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

 

Corn futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents lower at midsession.

  • Corn futures are facing technical selling and pressure from wheat and soybeans.
  • Argentina will see little rain through the next week and fieldwork should advance well while recent rain has left much of the country with enough soil moisture to support crop development. Timely rains are expected Feb. 22-24, in time to keep crop conditions mostly favorable, according to World Weather Inc.
  • An official with shipping giant Maesk told CNBC the company doesn’t expect Red Sea vessel transit to resume anytime soon. Meanwhile, Egypt’s Suez Canal will coordinate with clients to find ways to reduce the effects of the Red Sea crisis on trade, Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie told the CEO of shipping giant MSC. Grain shipments continue to be diverted from the Red Sea due to the ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels.
  • Ethanol production averaged 1.083 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Feb. 9, up 50,000 bpd (4.8%) from the previous week and 6.8% above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased 1.031 million barrels 25.810 million barrels. 
  • March corn has extended below support at $4.28 and $4.25 1/4, marking a contract low at $4.23 1/2. Additional support is at $4.22. Initial resistance stands at $4.31 1/4.

 

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents lower, while March soymeal is $1.50 higher. March soyoil is about 45 points lower.

  • Soybeans are favoring the downside, despite modest gains in nearby soymeal futures.
  • World Weather reports rain will fall more abundantly across central and northern crop areas in Brazil resulting in the continuation of good long-term crop development. Parts of northern Brazil will still be drier biased for another day or two, which will help to promote early season crop maturation and harvesting.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, extending gains from the previous session amid a larger-than-expected fall in January inventories in top producer Malaysia.
  • March soybeans tested initial support at $11.80 1/4, with additional support at $11.65 3/4. The 10-day moving average of $11.91 1/2 remains initial resistance.

 

Winter wheat futures are mostly 9 to 14 cents lower, while HRS is 7 to 8 cents lower.

  • Wheat futures are lower amid easing global supply concerns.
  • SovEcon raised its 2024 Russian wheat crop estimate by 1.4 MMT to 93.6 MMT.
  • FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French soft wheat stocks at the end of this season to a 19-year high of 3.5 MMT, up from 3.44 MMT forecast last month, as competition from Ukraine curbs French wheat exports to other EU countries.
  • Winter weather conditions have been mostly favorable for Ukrainian winter crops, APK-Inform consultancy quoted state meteorologists as saying. The forecaster said fields in most of the country’s regions had sufficient soil moisture.
  • Ukraine has exported almost 2.4 MMT of grain so far this month, lower than the 2.7 MMT shipped over the same period in 2023, ag ministry data showed. Since the beginning of the 2023-24 marketing year on July 1, exports have totaled 26.3 MMT, down from 29.7 MMT last year.
  • March SRW futures fell to the lowest level since Jan. 18. That level at $5.73 1/4 is near-term support. Resistance is heavily layered from $5.83 3/4 to $6.00.

 

Live cattle are marking moderate to sharp losses, while feeders are sharply lower.

  • Live cattle are lower for the third straight session as corrective selling, wholesale weakness and fading technicals weigh on prices.
  • Cattle slaughter through the first two days of the week was estimated at 240,000 head, 10,000 behind last week and 8.835 lower than last year’s pace. Estimates for this week’s slaughter are just over 600,000 head as packers reduce runs in an attempt to manage supplies.
  • Wholesale beef values dropped Tuesday, with Choice slipping $1.81 to $292.27 while Select fell $1.72 to $285.30, further narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $6.97.
  • April live cattle dropped below the 10- and 200-day moving averages of $184.84 and $184.43, with support now at $183.68. Resistance stands at $185.19.

 

Lean hogs are posting moderate to sharp gains at midsession.

  • Hog futures are sharply higher amid strong buying efforts from oversold conditions. February lean hog futures expire today.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 41 cents to $74.11 as of Feb. 12, the highest since Nov. 20, though still around $3.00 below last year at this time.
  • The pork cutout value fell $1.38 to $87.16 on Tuesday, led lower by primal bellies and hams. Movement totaled 347.4 loads.
  • April lean hogs jumped to the highest level since Feb. 2 in a strong move above the 10-, 20- and 200-day moving averages. Resistance is at the Feb. 2 high of $85.925, while support lies at $80.98.

 

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