Market Snapshot | February 8, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents lower at midmorning.

Corn futures are trading narrowly lower ahead of USDA’s February Supply & Demand Report.
Traders anticipate slightly smaller U.S. ending stocks for corn. The average pre-report estimate is 2.146 billion bu., which would be down 16 million bu. from January.
USDA reported daily corn sales of 200,000 MT to Columbia during 2023-24.
USDA reported corn sales of 1.22 MMT for the week ended Feb. 1, which rose 1% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average. Traders were expecting sales to range from 600,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
Brazilian crop estimating agency Conab lowered its corn crop forecast 3.9 MMT to 113.7 MMT, down 13.8% from year-ago, with 3.1 MMT of the decline due to a smaller outlook for safrinha production. February is the first month Conab incorporates field observations into its safrinha corn crop forecast. Conab also reduced 2023-24 corn export projection by 3 MMT to 32 MMT.
World Weather Inc. reports Argentina has recorded three days of rain in central Buenos Aires, allowing conditions to steadily improve for crop development. However, the forecaster reports other areas of the country have missed the precip and temps have been very warm/hot.
March corn posted a contract low at $4.32. Support is at $4.31 1/2 and backed by $4.25. Initial resistance stands at $4.38.

Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 10 cents higher, while March soymeal is around $1.00 higher. March soyoil is around 90 points higher.

Soybeans are moderately higher on reduced South American crop pegs, with soyoil leading the complex to the upside.
Traders are expecting an increase in U.S. soybean ending stocks, with the average estimate at 284 million bu., which would be up 16 million bu. from January. A greater focus will be on South American production, especially for Brazil.
Conab slashed its Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 5.9 MMT from last month to 149.4 MMT, reflecting a 3.4% decline in production from year-ago. Conab also reduced its 2023-24 export projection by 4.3 MMT to 94.2 MMT.
Northern Brazil will experience waves of rain over the next week, with drier weather possible the following week, states World Weather.
USDA reported soybean sales of 340,800 MT during the week ended Feb. 1, up notably from the previous week but down 24% from the four-week average. Sales were shy of pre-report expectations of 400,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
March soybeans are hovering mostly around the 10-day moving average of $12.02 1/2, with resistance at the 20-day moving average of $12.13 1/2. Support lies at the previous session’s low of $11.79 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 12 to 15 cents lower, while HRS is around 9 to 14 cents lower.

Wheat futures have given up early gains, limited by overhead resistance and strength in the U.S. dollar.
Traders are expecting a marginal reduction in wheat ending stocks from January. The average analyst estimate is 647 million bu., which would be down 1 million bu. from last month.
USDA reported wheat export sales of 378,400 MT during the week ended Feb. 1, up 17% from the previous week, but down 6% from the four-week average.
Statistics Canada reported Canadian wheat stocks at 20.7 MMT as of Dec. 31, down from 23.0 MMT last year at this time.
India lowered the limit of wheat stocks traders can hold to increase availability and moderate prices. This is the third time since June 2023 the wheat stocks limit has been reduced.
March SRW futures are trading within the recent consolidation range, with support at $5.83 3/4, while resistance stands at the 100- and 40-day moving averages of $6.02 3/4 and $6.06 1/4.

Live cattle are posting sharp gains, while feeders are even stronger.

Cattle futures are extending gains to a three-month high.
Cash cattle trade has been slow to develop this week as feedlots continue to hold out for higher packer bids, spurred by this week’s rise in futures.
Choice boxed beef prices rose 91 cents Wednesday to $294.98, while Select gained 82 cents to $285.42. Movement increased to 154 loads.
USDA reported net beef sales of 20,600 MT for 2024.
April live cattle have marked the highest intraday level since Nov. 3, with resistance at $187.73, while support lies at the 200-day moving average of $184.30.

Lean hogs are facing moderate selling.

Hog futures are lower amid continued wholesale weakness, fading gains in the cash index and technical-based selling.
The CME lean hog index rose 16 cents to $74.02 as of Feb. 6, slowing its recent advance.
The pork cutout value continues to face notable pressure, falling $2.24 on Wednesday to $83.99, led by a $7 drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 342.9 loads.
USDA reported net pork sales of 39,200 MT for 2024.
April lean hogs gapped below the 20-day moving average of $81.06, which is serving as initial resistance, while support lies at $79.72.

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