Market Snapshot | February 5, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are gradually favoring the upside in narrow trade, in step with soybean futures.
• USDA reported daily corn sales of 155,000 MT for delivery to Mexico during 2023-24.
• World Weather Inc. reports crop stress in Argentina has risen enough to threaten production potential and some yield loss may be happening in the driest areas. However, rainfall will increase in southwest areas late this week, with greater amounts slowly advancing northeast.
• AgRural estimated safrinha corn planting reached 28% as of last Thursday, the fastest rate in its data back to 2013.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 624,295 MT (24.6 million bu.) during the week ended Feb. 1, which were down 302,054 MT from the previous week and below the pre-report range of 750,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
• March corn futures are facing support layered from $4.40 1/4 to $4.37 3/4, while initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $4.46 1/4.

Soybean futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while March soymeal is more than $3.50 higher. March soyoil is around 35 points higher.

• Soybeans futures have rebounded from earlier lows to mildly favor the upside as increasing soymeal strength underpins the complex.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest advanced to 16% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, the second fastest rate behind 19% on that date in 2018-19. Hot, dry weather in southern areas of the country pose a threat to later-maturing soybeans, and if they persist, could lead to further production cuts.
• Drying in southern Brazil will maintain some moisture crop s tress in western Parana, Paraguay and areas south into western Rio Grande do Sul through Saturday, notes World Weather. Mato Grosso do Sul will get relief after recent drying and crop stress, while areas further north will get sufficient rain.
• USDA reported soybean export inspections of 1.43 MMT (52.4 million bu.) during the week ended Feb. 1, which were up 513,024 MT from the previous week and above the expected range of 450,000 to 900,000 MT.
• March soybean futures touched an eight-month low early on but have rebounded mildly following a test of support at $11.80 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $12.02 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 8 to 10 cents lower, while HRS is around 6 to 8 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are facing followthrough selling as looming overhead resistance and U.S. dollar strength continue to plague the complex.
• Weather conditions in late January did not have a negative impact on the condition of Ukrainian winter grain crops, analyst APK-Inform quoted state weather forecasters as saying. Forecasters noted minimum soil temps decreased, but they “were above critical freezing temps.”
• Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will discuss a new mechanism to allow Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during his upcoming visit to Turkey, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said.
• USDA reported wheat export inspections of 266,269 MT (9.8 million bu.) during the week ended Feb. 1, down 17,520 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
• March SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 20-, 10-, and 100-day moving averages of $5.97 3/4, $6.00 and $6.03 3/4, respectively, while initial support lies at $5.93 1/4.

Live cattle are modestly lower, while feeders are posting moderate- to sharp losses.

• Cattle are moderately lower aside from the lead February contracts, as technical pressure entices mild profit-taking to start the week.
• Packers actively raised cash cattle prices last week and bought a lot of cattle. Cash sources expect firmer cash prices again this week, though active trade isn’t likely until after midweek.
• Choice boxed beef prices fell $1.86 to $293.08 on Friday, while Select rose 22 cents to $283.47. Movement totaled 147 loads.
• April live cattle continue to face resistance at the 200-day moving average of $184.18, while initial support remains at $182.97.

Lean hogs are lower, with heavier selling in deferred contracts.

• Hog futures are moderately to sharply lower amid a corrective pullback following a string of notable gains during the latter half of January.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 41 cents to $73.12 as of Feb. 1, continuing the seasonal climb over the past month and is now 27 cents above last year at this time.
• The pork cutout value slipped 19 cents to $88.40 amid a drop in all cuts aside from primal bellies and loins. Movement totaled 318.5 loads.
• April lean hogs gapped lower at the open, though the 200-day moving average of $81.82 is serving up support, while the session high of $83.375 serves as initial resistance.