Market Snapshot | January 22, 2024

Corn futures are favoring the downside in choppy trade at midmorning.

• Corn futures are pivoting around unchanged despite supportive outside markets.
• Argentina weather will be drying down additionally in this coming week, notes World Weather Inc. There will be need for widespread rain soon thereafter as both the far northern and southern parts of the nation start to experience moisture stress. Weather this week may offer a little concern, but no change in production potential is likely.
• As of Last Thursday, 4.9% of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop area had been planted in Brazil, according to AgRural, ahead of 1% at the same time a year earlier.
• USDA reported export inspections of 713,290 MT (28.1 million bu.), down 233,127 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 650,000 MT to 1.05 MMT.
• March corn is trading narrowly within Friday’s range, limited by resistance at $4.49, while initial support lies at $4.42 1/2.

Soybean futures are 2 to 4 cents higher, while March soymeal is more than $3.00 lower. March soyoil futures are around 90 points higher.

• Soybeans are posting mild corrective gains, though meal pressure and overhead resistance is limiting buyer interest.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest advanced to 6% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, paced by Mato Grosso and Paraná.
• Most of Brazil will get rain during the next 10 days with heavy rain possible in some areas, notes World Weather. Rains are expected to favor center-west and northeastern areas.
• China’s 2023 soybean imports from Brazil rose to 69.95 MMT. Imports from the U.S. fell 13% to 24.17 MMT. Brazil’s market share grew to 70%, while the U.S. share shrank to 24%.
• USDA reported export inspections of 1.16 MMT (42.7 million bu.), down 117,068 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 750,000 MT to 1.45 MMT.
• March soybeans are consolidating mostly between the 10-day moving average, currently trading at $12.26 1/2, and initial support at $12.07.  

Winter wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher. Spring wheat is 4 to 6 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are edging higher for the fourth straight session amid corrective buying.
• Beneficial precip, mostly in the form of rain, will occur today through Friday in eastern and southern production areas of the Plains. Much of this is expected to miss western Nebraska, northern Colorado and northwestern Kansas and this part of the region will continue to need greater moisture for spring, according to World Weather.
• USDA reported export inspections of 314,521 MT (11.6 million bu.), up 72,112 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 550,000 MT.
• March SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.95 1/4, while initial support is at $5.86.

Live cattle are posting moderate losses, while feeders are moderately to sharply lower at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are facing moderate pressure amid weakening wholesale values and as traders await last week’s average cash cattle price, due out this morning.
• Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed there were 11.93 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Jan. 1, up 248,000 head (2.1%) from year-ago. December placements fell 4.5%, while marketings slipped 0.9% from year-ago levels.
• Wholesale boxed beef prices slid lower Friday, with Choice falling 79 cents to $295.50, while Select dropped 71 cents to $283.05. Movement totaled 111 loads for the day.
• February live cattle are limited by resistance at $174.94, while initial support at $173.84 has been violated.

Lean hogs are modestly weaker at midsession.

• Hog futures are favoring the downside as wholesale weakness and limited gains in the CME lean hog index limit buyer interest.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 19 cents to $68.06 as of Jan. 18. While gains haven’t been strong, that’s the eighth gain in the last nine days, as the cash index continues to rebound from the seasonal lows.
• The pork cutout value fell 17 cents to $88.56 despite gains in primal bellies and butts. Movement totaled 254.2 loads for the day.
• February lean hogs are facing resistance at $70.875, with the 10-day moving average of $71.27 serving as the next area of resistance. Initial support is layered at $70.50, $70.20 and the 20-day moving average of $70.05.