Market Snapshot | January 19, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher.

• Corn futures are posting mild followthrough corrective gains with strong weekly export sales and supportive outside markets underpinning prices.
• USDA reported net corn sales of 1.251 MMT for the week ended Jan. 11, up notably from the previous week and 61% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Colombia. Sales came in above expectations of 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
• Brazil is expected to see mostly favorable conditions, with the exception of far southern areas. Argentina is forecast to be mostly dry over the next 10 days.
• March corn has poked above resistance at $4.47, though additional resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.51 1/4 is curbing momentum. Initial support lies at $4.41 3/4.

Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents higher, while March soymeal is more than $2.00 higher. March soyoil futures are around 70 points lower.

• Soybeans and soymeal are supported by corrective buying, though overhead technical resistance is limiting buying efforts.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 297,000 MT to China during 2023-24.
• USDA reported weekly net soybeans sales of 781,300 MT, more than double the previous week but down 6% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales to range between 400,000 and 900,000 MT.
• Most of Brazil will receive rain during the next 10 days, according to World Weather Inc. The exception will be Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil, which is expected to be dry.
• March soybeans have edged above resistance at $12.19 1/4 and $12.25 1/4, while additional resistance is at the 10-day moving average of $12.31 1/4. Initial support lies at $12.10 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 5 to 8 cents higher, while HRS is notching 3 to 6 cent gains.

• Wheat futures are posting corrective gains for the third straight session, though technicals are limiting gains.
• USDA reported net wheat sales of 707,600 MT for the week ended Jan. 11, up noticeably from the previous week and the four-week average. Net sales exceeded the pre-report range of 150,000 and 500,000 MT.
• The Kremlin said there was no prospect of reviving the Black Sea grain deal and that alternative routes for shipping Ukrainian grain carried huge risks. These comments came after the Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey said on Thursday, “certain negotiations” were underway regarding the UN-brokered Black Sea grain export initiative.
• March SRW have pushed above resistance at $5.90 1/2, $5.95 1/2 but stalled shy of the 10-day moving average of $5.98 3/4, which is serving up notable resistance. Initial support lies at $5.81 3/4.

Live cattle are marking mild losses, while feeders are mixed at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are pausing ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report.
• Analysts polled by Reuters expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report to show the feedlot inventory up 2.1% from year-ago at 11.927 million head. That would be the fourth straight month of year-over-year increases in feedlot numbers. After aggressive placements of calves into feedlots early last fall, analysts expect that category will be down 4.6%, which would be the second straight month with a year-over-year decline. Marketings in December are expected to be down 0.7%.
• Cash negotiations remained at a standstill on Thursday, with asking prices in the $174.00 to $175.00 range and limited packer bids. Active cash trade may not come until after the Cattle on Feed Report unless packers get more aggressive with bids as feedlots appear unwilling to move cattle at lower prices.
• Choice boxed beef prices slipped $2.16 to $296.29, while Select rose 74 cents to $283.76, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $12.53. Movement increased to 144 loads.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 21,400 MT for 2024 during the week ended Jan. 11.
• February live cattle are trading within Thursday’s trading range, limited by resistance at the previous session’s high of $175.08, while initial support remains at $173.24.

Lean hogs are modestly weaker at midsession.

• Hog futures are facing mild followthrough weakness despite improving cash and wholesale fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 53 cents to $67.87 as of Jan. 17, marking the seventh gain in eight days.
• The pork cutout value rose 77 cents to $88.73, led by gains in primal bellies and hams. Movement totaled 290.5 loads.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 33,400 MT during the week ended Jan. 11 for 2024.
• February lean hogs are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average $71.36, while initial support remains at $70.50. Additional resistance/support stand at $71.825 and at the 20-day moving average of $70.06.